How weak is "weak" - nv vs vul

[H_KARLUK]

1♦   1♠   3♦WEAK   P

?

[hv=d=s&v=e&s=sat83h8dakqj6cqt9]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

Do you see where are th winners ?

 

*Please explain your reason/s if you have already voted in this poll. Thanks ;)

[awm]

This kind of auction is tough because "weak" does have a pretty wide range.

 

With that said, we're never going to make 3NT here. We have five diamonds tricks and a spade, which is only six, and partner won't contribute more than two. On the other hand, it's quite possible we can make 5♦ -- give partner a singleton spade and we need very little, and even with doubleton spade we might have play (i.e. xx xxx xxxxx AJx).

 

Seems like what we need here is a way to make a try without getting past 4♦ when partner has wasted values in hearts. Fortunately we have a lot of bids available. ;)

[H_KARLUK]

This kind of auction is tough because "weak" does have a pretty wide range..... Fortunately we have a lot of bids available. ;) 

 

I liked it. To me nice foresight. Clap clap. So far so good.

[Cascade]

You need a partnership agreement.

 

It is nice to be able to push them around when you have nothing except a good fit. However this style means you will also create problems for your partner especially when playing a standard system where the opening bid is wide-ranging.

 

We used to play 0-6 or so for these bids but:

 

1. This caused too many headaches for our side

 

2. 0 counts are extremely infrequent.

 

Now we play these as more constructive - around 4-7. So that partner can hope for something useful if she has the right hand to have a fly at 3NT or 5♦.

 

Since I have my spreadsheet open:

 

0-6 has a frequency of about 0.20557

and 4-7, a narrower range, has a frequency of about 0.23614

 

So the narrower higher range will cause more problems for the opponents while also helping partner. You just have to give up occasionally (less than 5%) with a fit and 0-3 HCP.

[hanp]

Since I have my spreadsheet open:

 

0-6 has a frequency of about 0.20557

and 4-7, a narrower range, has a frequency of about 0.23614

 

 

Are these a priori odds or do they take into account that partner opened and RHO overcalled?

 

I am not sure that 4-7 creates less problems for partner. For example, there are only 1D that make 3NT opposite a 4-count but quite a few that would like to play 3NT opposite a 7-count.

[sfi]

The question I tend to have of partners in this situation is whether they want me to bid 3NT with a balanced 18-19 count. I'm happy with whatever the answer is, but I don't think that the 3♦ bid should cover both sorts of "weak" hands.

[Cascade]

Since I have my spreadsheet open:

 

0-6 has a frequency of about 0.20557

and 4-7, a narrower range, has a frequency of about 0.23614

 

 

Are these a priori odds or do they take into account that partner opened and RHO overcalled?

 

I am not sure that 4-7 creates less problems for partner. For example, there are only 1D that make 3NT opposite a 4-count but quite a few that would like to play 3NT opposite a 7-count.

a priori

 

They are pretty much even when I made standard sort of 1♦ opening and a 8-15 5-card spade overcall.

 

Of course there are hands where you want to be in game opposite 7 HCP but not 4 HCP but they will be less frequent than 6 HCP compared with 0 HCP.

[cherdanno]

Of course there are hands where you want to be in game opposite 7 HCP but not 4 HCP but they will be less frequent than 6 HCP compared with 0 HCP.

Why is that so? For example, when responder is weak with long diamonds, opener will often be 18-19 balanced, which may want to play in game opposite 7 hcp but not opposite 6.

[benlessard]

The problem with Cascade agreement is that you can bid 2D with 5 to 7 points.

 

In the end what you have to compared is the difference in results between 2D and 3D with weakish 5-7 pts, and the difference between passing with 0-4 pts or bidding 3D. You also have to compared that the 2D now show 8-10 pts instead of 5-9.

 

 

 

The question I tend to have of partners in this situation is whether they want me to bid 3NT with a balanced 18-19 count. I'm happy with whatever the answer is, but I don't think that the 3♦ bid should cover both sorts of "weak" hands.

 

Agree 100%

That why i think 4-7 is a bad range

[hanp]

0-6 has a frequency of about 0.20557

and 4-7, a narrower range, has a frequency of about 0.23614

Are these a priori odds or do they take into account that partner opened and RHO overcalled?

a priori

 

They are pretty much even when I made standard sort of 1♦ opening and a 8-15 5-card spade overcall.

If by even you mean they are almost the same then I am very surprised. Also, in my experience very few good players use 8-15 overcalls but maybe this is different on your side of the globe.

 

Since you have your spreadsheet open, could you post the odds for us having respectively 0-6 and 4-7 pts when partner has 12-21 points and RHO has 8-15 points? I don't think that you have to assume that we are unbalanced with 5+ diamonds, I think the effect of that is really small.

[Cascade]

0-6 has a frequency of about 0.20557

and 4-7, a narrower range, has a frequency of about 0.23614

Are these a priori odds or do they take into account that partner opened and RHO overcalled?

a priori

 

They are pretty much even when I made standard sort of 1♦ opening and a 8-15 5-card spade overcall.

If by even you mean they are almost the same then I am very surprised. Also, in my experience very few good players use 8-15 overcalls but maybe this is different on your side of the globe.

 

Since you have your spreadsheet open, could you post the odds for us having respectively 0-6 and 4-7 pts when partner has 12-21 points and RHO has 8-15 points? I don't think that you have to assume that we are unbalanced with 5+ diamonds, I think the effect of that is really small.

I did that by simulation not calculation.

[hanp]

I would very much like to see the numbers you get and what also what you mean by a "standard sort of 1D opening" given your post in the other thread where you did a simulation.

[Cascade]

0-6 has a frequency of about 0.20557

and 4-7, a narrower range, has a frequency of about 0.23614

Are these a priori odds or do they take into account that partner opened and RHO overcalled?

a priori

 

They are pretty much even when I made standard sort of 1♦ opening and a 8-15 5-card spade overcall.

If by even you mean they are almost the same then I am very surprised. Also, in my experience very few good players use 8-15 overcalls but maybe this is different on your side of the globe.

 

Since you have your spreadsheet open, could you post the odds for us having respectively 0-6 and 4-7 pts when partner has 12-21 points and RHO has 8-15 points? I don't think that you have to assume that we are unbalanced with 5+ diamonds, I think the effect of that is really small.

As best I can tell these are the frequencies for that situation:

 

0 0.007778648

1 0.016477703

2 0.027582706

3 0.048333449

4 0.072197787

5 0.091073191

6 0.106010849

7 0.11785472

8 0.116068001

9 0.10621926

10 0.090726429

11 0.071425201

12 0.051516788

13 0.034421126

14 0.021066521

15 0.011623711

16 0.005797093

17 0.002535015

18 0.000949506

19 0.000288397

20 5.38982E-05

[Cascade]

I would very much like to see the numbers you get and what also what you mean by a "standard sort of 1D opening" given your post in the other thread where you did a simulation.

Balanced 12-14 and Balanced 18-19

Specifically 4441

Unbalanced with five diamonds and diamonds longer than a major or at least as long as clubs.

[hanp]

Thanks Wayne. Clearly 7 HCP is quite a bit more likely than 0-3, as you said.