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Grand slam to play


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[hv=d=s&v=b&n=st3hkq43dajt96ca2&s=saj6hajt52d7ckq65]133|200|Scoring: Total Points

You open 1 and reach 7 with no opposition bidding.

Lead is J.

 

I thought there were two possible lines:

 

* Pitch a spade on a club and try to ruff three black losers in dummy

* Reverse dummy and set up diamonds.

 

(If you play trumps, West turns up with three. If you play A, diamond ruff West drops the K.)

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I'm going to assume that LHO doesn't have a doubleton club, because it's an unlikely lead even from J10 doubleton.

 

Suppose that I were to play on diamonds, and they were 4-3. I'd need four entries to dummy: three to ruff diamonds and one to draw trumps. If trumps were 3-1, I'd need to be able to ruff a club low in dummy. As well as diamonds 4-3, I'd need trumps 2-2, clubs 4-3, or the same hand having one trump and two clubs. There are a few extra chances - Hx on my left with trumps 2-2, RHO having five diamonds and both spade honours - but these don't add up to much.

 

If I play to ruff my black losers in dummy, I'll need clubs 4-3, diamonds not 1=6, and spades not 6=2. That seems better to me, despite the lead.

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Ruffs seem right. Play two clubs and then the Queen. If that's not ruffed, ditch a spade. Fourth club. If LHO follows, ruff high. If LHO ruffs, overruff. If LHO pitches, ruff low.

 

Spade to Ace, ruff a spade low.

 

Diamond Ace, ruff a diamond (noting King), ruff a spade.

 

On this second spade, you could ruff high, which wins if trumps are not 4-0. You could instead ruff low, which works if RHO does not have only two spades. You should have count.

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Yes, the suggested line is basically working. The cards were how you are imagining - LHO had J10x and you just have to be careful to avoid any silly overruffs. Maybe this hand is less interesting than I thought - I tied myself in knots trying to combine chances and duly went down. :)
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