mtvesuvius Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 V vs NV at IMPs, you hold: KQJTxxJ------JT98xx RHO opens a strong, artificial and forcing 2♣, your bid? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerclee Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 4♠ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickRW Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 In the absence of having agreed some way of showing 2 suiters in this situation, 4♠. This hand is probably good for 8 playing tricks and if partner can't contribute even one to that total, then 4♠x is surely a good save against a highly likely slam the other way even at these colours. Heck, we could even make it. Nick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 Agree to 4♠. Seems like an adequate bid, even with a bid for 2-suiters available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOL Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 4S red/white? Wow you guys are brave! I would bid 3S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 4S red/white? Wow you guys are brave! I would bid 3S. me tarzan, you jane :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerclee Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 4S red/white? Wow you guys are brave! I would bid 3S. I believe my r/w opponents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 4♠ for me too. Unlikely to go for -800. -200 +790 are likely outcomes. -1400 is theoretically possible but only if they can tap me. and we are off the club suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilkaz Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 4♠ for me too. Unlikely to go for -800. -200 +790 are likely outcomes. -1400 is theoretically possible but only if they can tap me. and we are off the club suit. I have to agree with Phil here. Looking at my hand, it is unlikely that opener has a strong NT hand. He almost certainly has a red suited oriented 2♣ either a 1 or 2 suiter. 4♠ while risky, really limits the opps ability to explore for slam. If PD is broke, the opps may have a grand. Let them guess ! 3♠ does preempt, but even at these colors, I gotta go 4♠ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickRW Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 4♠ for me too. Unlikely to go for -800. -200 +790 are likely outcomes. -1400 is theoretically possible but only if they can tap me. and we are off the club suit. Yes, there can be some -1400s - some of them will still be good saves against a grand - though, to be fair, a lot of folks are not good at bidding grands. I tried running a sim for my own benefit as I was actually quite rattled that Justin thought 4♠ was too much. Meaningful analysis is next to impossible of course as you can't model the psychology of the situation, not to mention that people debate endlessly about what is and what is not a 2♣ opener. Never the less, there seem to be enough cases of 1. Making 4♠2. One off against a game3. More, but few enough, off against a slam that 4♠ is a reasonable matchpoint bet. At IMPs - well - I'm not going to crunch the numbers this late at night here especially as they don't really prove anything anyway - but it seems quite touch and go whether 4 beats 3 as a call - I think I still go with 4 - but it is as much the psychology side of it that I think may work our way with the higher call. Of course, the psychology may work against us - sometimes a preempt pushes an opponent into something they wouldn't have done if you'd just kept quiet! Nick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerclee Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 4♠ for me too. Unlikely to go for -800. -200 +790 are likely outcomes. -1400 is theoretically possible but only if they can tap me. and we are off the club suit. Yes, there can be some -1400s - some of them will still be good saves against a grand - though, to be fair, a lot of folks are not good at bidding grands. I tried running a sim for my own benefit as I was actually quite rattled that Justin thought 4♠ was too much. Meaningful analysis is next to impossible of course as you can't model the psychology of the situation, not to mention that people debate endlessly about what is and what is not a 2♣ opener. Never the less, there seem to be enough cases of 1. Making 4♠2. One off against a game3. More, but few enough, off against a slam that 4♠ is a reasonable matchpoint bet. At IMPs - well - I'm not going to crunch the numbers this late at night here especially as they don't really prove anything anyway - but it seems quite touch and go whether 4 beats 3 as a call - I think I still go with 4 - but it is as much the psychology side of it that I think may work our way with the higher call. Of course, the psychology may work against us - sometimes a preempt pushes an opponent into something they wouldn't have done if you'd just kept quiet! Nick How did you run your simulation? I am particularly interested in how you decided whether the opening side doubles 4♠ or bids over it. Or did you just look at how many tricks we can make in spades and how many tricks they can make in whatever their best strain is? If that was your procedure I don't think your simulation was accurate to real world conditions at all, and I would expect 4♠ to be a much better call than your simulation indicates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickRW Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 I think I sort of hinted that I couldn't model the human factor at all - it is just number crunching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOL Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 I assumed the 4S bidders were doing so to mess with the opponents more than anything (such as making). Fair enough, but 800 seems quite plausible to me, or 1100 sometimes. I don't think that big risk (800) is worth the gain of the extra preemption. Hoping for making really seems off to me. On hands where you are making, it is unlikely to opponents are doubling you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 Hoping for making really seems off to me. On hands where you are making, it is unlikely to opponents are doubling you. Considering that they should be in a forcing pass over 4♠, playing 4♠ undoubled seems unlikely don't you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 That does not mean they have to defend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 That does not mean they have to defend? It means we won't be playing 4♠ undoubled obv. If they guess to bid, that's a good thing don't you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 On the hands where they bid over 4S, we are probably better off after having bid 4S than after 3S in the long run. I don't think anybody disagrees with that. The point that was that if they decide to defend 4S doubled then you are very unlikely to make it. I believe this was Justin's point, the extra preemptive damage that you do is not worth the times that you will go for a big number. I ended up backing 3S because your arguments have been so poor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 I ended up backing 3S because your arguments have been so poor. What?!? I don't think I need to explain preemptive theory to you. Even Justin's wonderful rule about preemption applies here. Do I really need to go into detail why 4♠ will make a fair amount of the time or / go -1? Do I need to explain how -500 / -1100 is nearly impossible and how -1400 is technically possible? Do I need to show how -800 is also possible? I mean, I'm happy to spell it out to for you (and the others) if that's necessary but I give you a lot of credit. Frankly, no one is really giving explicit reasons for their bids; just giving some likely outcomes, which is a function of personal experience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 I don't think we disagree by so much (although I really don't agree with you that -500 is nearly impossible). When the 2C opener is balanced or semi-balanced and they end up defending 4SX it is very unlikely that you will make. On those hands partner is not likely to have good spade support for you and the opponents have the vast majority of the missing highcards. Here it is quite unlikely that you will make 4S, and if you lose control then the vulnerability may be painful. On the hands where the opponents would have doubled 3S too you obviously do not do well by bidding 4S. When the 2C opener is unbalanced they often have a tough guess to make. On quite a few hands they miss slam, get too high, or bid when they should have defended 4S. I expect that on those hands, 4S is an overall winner compared to 3S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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