Psychology?

[JLOL]

Last round of a swiss, you are playing the leaders and need to win by 17+ to pass them (7 board match).

 

Early board, you pick up:

 

void xxxx KQxxxx Jxx.

 

The auction goes 4H p ? at favorable vulnerability.

 

Opps are good players, and your counterpart is Michael Rosenberg. They are the better team. Partner is a down the middle preemptor, a little conservative maybe, and RHO passed without pain, so this is likely to be a normal start to the auction.

 

What do you bid, and what is your general plan?

[jdonn]

I'm not sure how the psychology of the situation would affect me. I probably wouldn't do the same thing all the time but I like 7♥. I was leaning toward pass for a bit just hoping for 4♠ all pass, but I'm not sure that's very likely, and even 7♥ is probably a good save over 4♠ anyway.

 

Who knows, they might double and lead the diamond ace into partner's void and I even make! That would be sweet.

 

I want to mention I think it's kind of pointless to try to swing since you have no idea what Rosenberg will do in your seat, so I would just let the cards fall where they may and do what I think is best. A swing will probably happen naturally since it's impossible to duplicate his action with certainty. If you put a gun to my head to guess what he will do I would predict he psychs 4♠, I have seen him do things like that a few times before.

[Echognome]

My gut feeling is to bid 6♥ and let them play 6♠. I don't think it's automatic that they can make 6♠. Maybe hearts are 1-1 and we make a minor suit trick or partner has the ♣Q or the guarded ♠Q. I can imagine pass or any number of hearts working, but this is my guess.

[Hanoi5]

I also like 6♥.

[ulven]

5C, go for confusion.

[Apollo81]

If I was going for confusion, I would bid 5♦. This will look much less like a psych than any other call.

 

However I would just bid 6♥. 7 is also a possible call, but I will let the psychology of the situation affect me and try for a better score.

[ArtK78]

If you are REALLY looking for a swing on this hand, then you should pass.

 

Assuming that the 4♥ call was a normal action, this hand will, no doubt, raise hearts at the other table. It is likely that LHO will bid spades at any level over the preempt. But if you conceal the massive heart fit, maybe the opps will not be able to gauge the degree of their fit accurately.

 

I have seen this tactic work in the past.

[MarkDean]

Since people have suggested pass, 6♥, and 7♥, I figured I would round out the heart bids with 5♥. It takes away a bit of room (if LHO was ok forcing to 5 level, it is now more wide-ranging), and also lets LHO know that RHO could not act with shortness, maybe he will be a bit more conservative. If they want to buy it for 5♠, I am ok with that.

[whereagles]

What about pass? Maybe they leave it at 4/5♠ with a cold 6 in.

 

If they bid slam, I might try the save later. I don't think they have the bidding space needed to find out about a grand.

[mtvesuvius]

These is actually a strange case for 5♥, since it puts on the pressure for LHO and may get them to stop in 5♠... but I think 6♥ is out of the question since LHO will "guess" 6♠ quite often, which will make easily. Psyching may work also, but I think this is a 5 or 7 hand. 7 seems to be a good bid, especially if looking for a swing. If they want to bid 7♠ now, let them! I'm not wishing that 8 level bids were allowed yet...

[Fluffy]

just to suggest something different, psyche a lead directing 6♣.

[kenrexford]

I'm making a normal lead-directing diamond call.

[NickRW]

If you are REALLY looking for a swing on this hand, then you should pass.

 

Assuming that the 4♥ call was a normal action, this hand will, no doubt, raise hearts at the other table. It is likely that LHO will bid spades at any level over the preempt. But if you conceal the massive heart fit, maybe the opps will not be able to gauge the degree of their fit accurately.

 

I have seen this tactic work in the past.

FWIW, I agree with this.

 

Nick

[mikeh]

Since I am always going to bid 7♥ if necessary, and I am willing to bet that they can't make 7♠ if they bid it (I'm not saying they can't... I'm only saying that I will risk it), I won't bid 7♥ immediately.

 

On my assumption, 7♥ doubled will be par and my mission is to beat par, not match it... especially since I am sure that Rosenberg will also bid seven if he needs to.

 

I'm going to bid 4N, keycard. I am hoping that rho has just enough hcp that LHO won't know that this is a psyche. Give rho an Ace and a King, for example.

 

Let's see LHO balance over 5♥ passed back to him... and if we play 6♥, I won't mind being doubled, but there is a good chance I won't be... if he trusts me, LHO will fear we have 12 or 13 winners on the wrong lead, and the double would be for one trick only, from his p.o.v.

[gnasher]

There's enough difference between my normal game and Rosenberg's normal game to swing 17 IMPs without doing anything that I'd consider unusual. I bid 6♥ and defend 6♠ if that's what they bid.

 

Partner may have a side ace, or a singleton diamond, or ♣Q (or even ♣KQ), or a spade trick. We may have a heart trick, or 7♠ may be cold. If I take away all their space, there's no reason to assume that they'll reach the right contract.

 

I think it's probably about 10% that the auction will go the same way at both tables.

[xcurt]

I think pass or 5♥ are the actions with larger (but possibly less-frequent) upside.

 

I think 4NT keycard or 7♥ now or later are the actions you take when you are defending the lead. These actions minimize the chances of later defending 7♠ -2210.

 

I think a 5♦ and 6♥ are the worst of all non-psychic actions, and probably have negative expectation vs real par.

 

I never psyche successfully, so I have no idea if 5♣ will work.

 

I don't think it's particularly likely they make 7♠.

 

Edit -- I expect to take roughly 10 tricks in hearts. So I'm never selling to 6♠, the objective is to avoid -2210, whilst hopefully getting them to saw off some number of hearts less than 7.

[JLOL]

I tried to be cute with 5H and see what happened. LHO bid 6C, partner bid 6H, and was doubled there.

 

xxxx AQJTxxxx void stiff, and the DA was onside so +1210.

 

At the other table Rosenberg was even cuter with 4N. Lefty doubled and partner bid 6D showing a D void. He bid 6H, and LHO bid 7C, passed back to him. He knew 7S was probably cold, but doubled anyways for 1100. Win 3.