bid these hands

[benlessard]

I dont play 1S as forcing so

 

1C-----1D

2S-----3D

4D(keyc)----4H

4S (Q ?)-----5C yes but no K

5D----pass

[Cascade]

How about:

 

1♣ - 1♦

2♠(1) - 3♥(2)

4♣(3) - 5♣

Pass

 

(1) I think this hand is worth a game force with the 6-4 shape. If I rebid 1♠ we probably end there, which is not actually awful on the combined hands.

 

(2) I play this as 4th suit force, denying a fit or any semblance of heart stop.

 

(3) Seems reasonable to rebid the six-card suit; 4♦ is also an option and leads to 5♦.

 

It's not totally clear to me which is the right spot, with both 5♣ and 5♦ having some play but not being great. Perhaps stopping at partial is even the winner.

I like this sequence , especially the 3♥ bid , which I think should be reserved for hands without any other good option , and does not show any extras.

 

This gives better definition for other bids (3♣ shows 3 , 3♦ shows 6, etc..)

I dislike that idea.

 

We take up nearly a whole level of bidding to tell partner we have nothing to say. That seems terribly inefficient to me. Especially when you consider that partner may well know where he wants to go.

[kenrexford]

I'm not sure which wins most often.  Probably easy to calculate.

Yes, very easy. In fact, I thought that's what I'd already done.

 

If clubs are 3-2:

 

- Playing clubs from the top loses if RHO has three clubs and ♠A is offside.

- Starting with a low club loses if RHO has ♣Q and ♠A is offside.

 

These two cases are equally likely.

 

The difference between the lines is when clubs are 4-1. Suppose that ♣10 is never a falsecard, and that you always guess correctly whether it is from Q10 or singleton 10. Your line gains when clubs are 10xxx-Q. My line gains when clubs are Q10xx-x. That's three times as many combinations, and I haven't had to do any guessing.

I think you are oversimplifying things.

 

First, as to the 3-2, you are missing a bit. If clubs are 3-2 with RHO having three and the spade Ace offside, you do not go down by cashing and then changing tacks if you see the 10 when LHO has Q10 tight. So, that was errant. Second, the Ace being offside is more likely when RHO has three cards than when he has 2.5 cards on average in clubs, albeit slightly, such that low works slightly less often than would seem obvious. On the flip-side, my line fails when RHO only has two cards, specifically the Q10, with the spade Ace offside.

 

So, the two 3-2 scenarios might not actually be equal.

 

As to the 4-1, you have a point, I think.

 

I think the odds still favor your line, but I don't think it is as easy to calculate as you suggest.

[Fluffy]

I must be an overbidder, because even when I play 1♠ as forcing I would bid 2♠. I'd follow Adam's (awm) aproach

[gnasher]

I think you are oversimplifying things.

Yes. My simplification obscured the fact that my line gains on the 3-2s as well.

 

Playing from the top unless 10 falls gains (assuming no falsecards) against

♠A ♣10xx - ♣Qx

 

Leading towards J gains against

♠A ♣Qx - ♣10xx

 

The second layout is obviously more likely.