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Annoying Pre-Empt #80000


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Whereagles, it is not a good idea to just "distribute the rest of hcp evenly" for the same reason you shouldn't say that when LHO opens 1, his average heart length is 7

If you got 7 as average heart length, you probably did something wrong :) It's more like 6, and that's not even discounting the hands that have 7+ hearts and appeal for a different opening (e.g. 4, 2, namyats, etc).

 

Anyway, as to the hcp, got any better ideas on how to evaluate the averages? :D

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  • 11 months later...
Whereagles, it is not a good idea to just "distribute the rest of hcp evenly" for the same reason you shouldn't say that when LHO opens 1, his average heart length is 7

If you got 7 as average heart length, you probably did something wrong :) It's more like 6, and that's not even discounting the hands that have 7+ hearts and appeal for a different opening (e.g. 4, 2, namyats, etc).

 

Anyway, as to the hcp, got any better ideas on how to evaluate the averages? :o

Yes I agree, I did something wrong, I applied your method for hcp to count hearts.

 

LHO has 5+

We have (say) 2

There are 6 more hearts in the deck which we distribute evenly

 

Therefore LHO has, on average, 7 hearts.

 

Just because I don't have a better method to make an estimate than a quick and wrong one, it doesn't mean I should use the quick and wrong one.

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I'd still bid 2N. We make 3N very often opposite random hands because we can shut RHO out and own lefty.

Yes - I saw this and thought 2N - wtp? and then I read my old answer lol.

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Hang on - how many points are the yanks expecting for 2? On this side of the pond, "weak" means 4-7 or 5-8 in this position, over which I wouldn't have considered 2NT. If it is 0-5 then sure, I'd probably bid 2NT. Or do you think 2NT is right over any of these ranges?
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Hang on - how many points are the yanks expecting for 2? On this side of the pond, "weak" means 4-7 or 5-8 in this position, over which I wouldn't have considered 2NT. If it is 0-5 then sure, I'd probably bid 2NT. Or do you think 2NT is right over any of these ranges?

Weak here usually means "less than a 1S bid" which is pretty lol to me but that's how most people who play weak play them ime. Maybe the good pairs don't but I don't know many good pairs who play weak.

 

To mean something like 5-8 is more like constructive. I would pass over 5-8 for sure.

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I can't believe my answer remains unchanged. That I would have passed without thinking about it, that seeing the 2NT reasoning gives me good pause, and that I would still end up passing but seeing how 2NT could easily be right.

 

I'm not sure I have come up against a single weak jump shift since the last time I answered. Do I not have normal opponents?

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