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Annoying Pre-Empt #80000


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LHO is short in spades, thus long in diamonds. Pard must therefore be short in diamonds and, since he didn't act over 1, he's broke.

 

Thanks. I am having trouble following these words. To help me understand, would you be able to put them into numbers?

 

LHO has ... of the 3 missing spades - leaving ... for partner.

LHO has ... of the 9 missing diamonds (RHO having ... diamonds, and partner ...)

Partner therefore has a ???? shape. He would have bid with this shape and 9 HCP, did not bid, therefore is 'broke' (has less than 9 points).

 

 

Anyway, in the meantime put me down for 2NT.

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hum.. well, reasoning goes like this: ("-->" = "hints at")

 

RHO long spades + we long spades -->

LHO short spades -->

LHO long diamonds + we long diamonds -->

pard short diamonds -->

pard short diamonds + pard no bid --> pard is broke

 

If I had to guess, I'd say shapes across are something like..

 

.........2524

1453..........6223

.........4243

 

Or thereabouts. One could run a simulation, though.

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OK, serves me right for trying to be subtle.

 

Whereagles, my point was that your chain of reasoning, without numbers, proves nothing. All of the links in your chain are correct, but your conclusion (partner must be short in diamonds, and is therefore 'broke' because he passed 1) is way too strong. (As well as suggesting to me that partner would have made a takeout double with values and a singleton diamond, when we know that his spades are too short for a takeout double).

 

Partner is likely to have 2 or 3 diamonds, as well as 1 or 2 spades. I agree that 2524 is his single most likely shape, amongst the many possible shapes he can hold. But there are many hands with 2 or 3 diamonds, and reasonable values where he would pass over 1.

 

I think it will usually be hard for them to double even when we are in trouble (the weak hand with the long spades has no entry, and the opening bidder doesn't have the AQJ in the suit he opened), and that we will have a chance at 3NT often enough that I want to bid here.

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I would have instinctively passed without even thinking much about it, but admittedly I don't have much experience in this spot. Now that I'm seeing the 2NT bids.... I don't know. I agree it's not that likely to be doubled, and we could have a game but I think it's a fair amount more likely we don't. Color me chicken I still pass. But I'm not LOLing anyone.
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OK, serves me right for trying to be subtle.

 

Whereagles, my point was that your chain of reasoning, without numbers, proves nothing. All of the links in your chain are correct, but your conclusion (partner must be short in diamonds, and is therefore 'broke' because he passed 1) is way too strong. (As well as suggesting to me that partner would have made a takeout double with values and a singleton diamond, when we know that his spades are too short for a takeout double).

 

Partner is likely to have 2 or 3 diamonds, as well as 1 or 2 spades.  I agree that 2524 is his single most likely shape, amongst the many possible shapes he can hold.  But there are many hands with 2 or 3 diamonds, and reasonable values where he would pass over 1.

 

I think it will usually be hard for them to double even when we are in trouble (the weak hand with the long spades has no entry, and the opening bidder doesn't have the AQJ in the suit he opened), and that we will have a chance at 3NT often enough that I want to bid here.

How many 2524 hands will partner have, where he won't overcall 1H (or something else other than pass) over 1D and we have a 3NT?

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Whereagles, my point was that your chain of reasoning, without numbers, proves nothing.

Sorry, I'm not still at the point where I can crunch the numbers real-time at the table. But I'm working on it :rolleyes:

 

Agree that the conclusion of short (0-2) diamonds may be a bit too strong, but I would insist the odds are good pard has club or heart length. Since he didn't overcall, he's prolly broke.

 

Keep in mind you have 16 hcp and LHO is unlimited. Assuming LHO to be 11+, RHO 3+ and distributing the rest of hcps evenly, we come to something like

 

LHO pard RHO we

14 .... 4 .... 6 ... 16

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Whereagles, it is not a good idea to just "distribute the rest of hcp evenly" for the same reason you shouldn't say that when LHO opens 1, his average heart length is 7
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How many 2524 hands will partner have, where he won't overcall 1H (or something else other than pass) over 1D and we have a 3NT?

Probably none at all for me.

But do you see the difference between "Partner's shape is 2524" and "2524 is his single most likely shape, amongst the many possible shapes he can hold"?

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How many 2524 hands will partner have, where he won't overcall 1H (or something else other than pass) over 1D and we have a 3NT?

Probably none at all for me.

But do you see the difference between "Partner's shape is 2524" and "2524 is his single most likely shape, amongst the many possible shapes he can hold"?

 

Yes.. so?

 

I am not saying that 2NT is incorrect, just that I haven't seen any compelling reason for it (apart from maybe the below)...

 

(Sorry for the basic question:) does 2NT show a balanced 15-18 count?

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