Interesting Psychological Situation

[kenrexford]

J9 in trumps on dummy.

AK8xxx in trumps in hand.

 

How do you play the suit (IMP, need no losers for the contract)?

 

In discussing this with a friend of mine, we ran through thoughts something like this:

 

"Well, it looks initially like you play RHO for Q10x."

 

"Yeah, but when your Jack is covered, you have a guess as to whether to hook for the 10 next of play for the drop."

 

"Ah, but what if the Jack is not covered? It seems obvious for RHO to cover, whether he has Q10x or Qxx, to leave you with a guess. So, he must not have the Queen, in which case you probably should play LHO for the Q10 tight."

 

"Yes, but then RHO, with Q10x or Qxx can duck, expecting you to hop King for that very reason."

 

"But, who does that?"

 

"What about starting with the Ace. If you see the 10, then you have to play LHO for Q10. If not, you play to pin the 10x."

 

"But, then LHO can falsecard the 10 from 10x."

 

"Who does that?"

 

"What if you lead the Jack off dummy and RHO plays the 10?"

 

"How can that make sense? What possible relevant holding to my interests can that play be from? 10xx? That's a stupid play, as it just gives us a chance that we cannot have otherwise."

 

"Yeah, but could you possibly play him for Q10?"

 

"Well, I sort of have to. As bizarre as the play is, I have no other play. But, I suppose that's the sort of mind-F you do to people all the time, and it strangely works somehow. They end up hopping A-K, convinced that I have the Queen, when you have Q10x all the time. A dumb play, but somehow successful."

 

"Bah, I just do that when the person looks drunk or really stupid."

 

"Like you look when you make that play?"

 

"Well, maybe the former."

[awm]

If we lead the jack from the table, it must be right to ignore RHO playing the ten. If the ten was a forced play then we either can't make (singleton ten) or can't go wrong (QT tight). Otherwise RHO is playing the ten from QTx or Txx only to trick us. We should not generally modify our plan based on this, because RHO can always do it just often enough that it doesn't help us to play for it. Obviously if RHO is predictable in some way we might change our minds.

 

If LHO will always play low on the king from Tx, then the best line will be to cash the ace and then try to pin the ten. This picks up LHO Tx and also either opponent with QT tight. However, assuming that LHO will find the play of the ten from Tx reasonably often, we are better off letting the jack ride. If the jack is covered, then we have to guess whether to play for LHO Tx or LHO xx; these are equally likely.

 

RHO should cover the jack with Qxx/QTx usually but not always. If he always covers then you are safe to go up if the jack is not covered, playing LHO for QT tight. If he never covers then you are saved the difficulty of guessing where the ten is on the second round. If you know that RHO will cover "too often" then you can improve your odds by hopping ace after the jack is not covered. If you know that RHO will cover much more often with one holding than the other you can improve your odds on the second round guess.

[mtvesuvius]

This is why people think you are crazy :)

 

But this is actually an extremely interesting psychological situation... Another interesting combo, with less options is:

 

A98xx

 

QJx

 

And I believe that there is a ton of psychology to the play, but often it's tough to see where...

[andy_h]

Do we know that the opponents know that our holding is AK8xxx?

[mtvesuvius]

Do we know that the opponents know that our holding is AK8xxx?

Yes. We dropped a card on the floor and got a quick peek.

[whereagles]

solution: wink at pard, so that he takes a peek at opps hands and winks back

 

sounds familiar..??? :P

[se12sam]

Here is a table for Ken's card combination:

 

1. xxx vs. QT --- play J first finesse twice (3.39%)

2. QT vs. xxx --- cash AK (3.39%)

3. T vs. Qxxx --- play J first finesse twice (2.83%)

4. Tx vs. Qxx --- play J first then cash King if J covered (10.17%)

5. xx vs. QTx --- play J first finesse twice if J covered (10.17%)

 

6. Qx vs. Txx --- play as in 1 if LHO plays 10 (10.17%). #6 is a "Grosvenor". If RHO plays 10, odds say you still play him for Q. And if it loses to Qx, too bad. Don't let it rattle you.

 

A. The best line is to run Jack from dummy (if not covered). Loses #2 but gains on 3, 4, 5.

 

B. If it is covered, the theoretical odds are equal on 4. and 5. However, as some opps will freely cover with #5 but not so quickly with #4, you play for a second finesse.

 

And a table for mtvesuvius's card combination:

 

11. Kxx vs. Tx - 10.17%

12. Kx vs. Txx - 10.17%

13. KT vs. xxx -  3.39%

14. K vs. Txxx -  2.83%

15. Kxxx vs. T -  2.83%

 

Lead the J. If it wins, the theoretical odds are equal on 11. and 12. Against expert opps, it's a toss-up (probably playing low is better) but with non-experts, play Q to pin the 10 with RHO?