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Unlucky?


kfay

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[hv=d=n&n=sqxxhakxdajxxxcax&s=sakxhxxxdqxxxxcxx]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1-2

2-2

3-3

3-3

4-4

4-4NT

6[/hv]

 

1 showed 4+ s, 2 was limit+ forcing to 3, usually showing 5 diamonds but might only be 4, it denied a 4cM. Your other choices were 1NT or a Ken Rexford 1.

 

Other bids at the 2- and 3-level showed stoppers. 3 was NF.

 

4 was ace asking, 4 showing 1 key-card. 4 asked for the Q, 4NT showed that and the K.

 

The K was in the slot (lucky) but other than that... is the mirror distribution just bad luck?

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North, who places the contract, knows that:

Partner does not have a fourth card in a major nor the king of clubs.

 

So, one side suit losers can disappear when south has the queen of hearts or the queen/jack of clubs or a doubelton in one major or a sixt diamond with a club singelton. But all of these handtypes make just one loser disappear.

 

 

So I would rate the slam chances well below 50 %, so I guess 5 diamond will be a long term winner.

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I think South should take responsibility to bid 3NT over 3. Stoppers are all there, he has a min and nothing more to say. North could also have bid 3NT over 3.

 

The problem here was at some stage no one knew what was expected of him.

 

Still, slam isn't that bad. Requires just K/Kx onside.

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When has Responder slowed this down?  He has a 9-count but keeps cooperating?

2 showed nothing extra merely a stopper, 3 was non-forcing and thus confirmed a limit raise, and 3 cooperated in the context of a limit raise which seems perfectly normal to me, although if you were going to disagree that would be the place. I think with a 5th trump and an AK he is perfectly justified showing his limit raise may be good for slam. So I don't know what you mean by "keeps cooperating", south made 3 automatic calls in a row then cooperated once, which I think was right.

 

I don't think this is unlucky, I think north overbid like mad. He essentially forced to slam with a balanced 18 opposite a limit raise. Obviously the mirror distribution was unlucky, but even change one of south's hearts to a club to eliminate an outside loser and it's a real stretch to be in slam.

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North should have bid 4C instead of 4D to see if south has anything else to cue. For example, south could have bid 4D with good diamonds (oh wait, this is probably keycards for you, system failure!) or cued hearts or clubs with shortness. As so often there was no need to run to keycards (I don't like 4D as keycards as it forces you to make the decision too early).

 

I think south bid well, I like 3S.

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When has Responder slowed this down?  He has a 9-count but keeps cooperating?

2 showed nothing extra merely a stopper, 3 was non-forcing and thus confirmed a limit raise, and 3 cooperated in the context of a limit raise which seems perfectly normal to me, although if you were going to disagree that would be the place. I think with a 5th trump and an AK he is perfectly justified showing his limit raise may be good for slam. So I don't know what you mean by "keeps cooperating", south made 3 automatic calls in a row then cooperated once, which I think was right.

 

I don't think this is unlucky, I think north overbid like mad. He essentially forced to slam with a balanced 18 opposite a limit raise. Obviously the mirror distribution was unlucky, but even change one of south's hearts to a club to eliminate an outside loser and it's a real stretch to be in slam.

I'm not sure I agree with this.

 

2 was perhaps a necessary overbid. I buy that.

 

Once partner bids 2, 2 tells the tale. I buy that also.

 

When Opener bids 3, however, I think that's GF. I don't agree that Responder can bid 3 to play now. Opener has just announced control of all suits but did not bid 2NT. So, I think we are forced beyond 3. Hence, 3 should, IMO, show extras. But, I can even buy that 3 is simply marking time.

 

When Opener continues to cue, bidding 3, I think 3 is wrong. Just bid 3NT. Offer the signoff. I cannot see how that could be anything but clear.

 

When Opener finds out that Responder has only one Ace and only the diamond Queen as key cards, and then the spade King, I think Opener has to assume that Responder has more shape, which makes the slam on a finesse, or the club King, which makes the slam practically laydown whenever the doubleton is not in clubs, unluckily.

 

Sure, 5 LTTC has some merits.

 

But, the problem, IMO, is the 3 call, for sure. If Responder can cooperate this much, Opener cannot reliably know when to bypass 3NT.

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When has Responder slowed this down?  He has a 9-count but keeps cooperating?

2 showed nothing extra merely a stopper, 3 was non-forcing and thus confirmed a limit raise, and 3 cooperated in the context of a limit raise which seems perfectly normal to me, although if you were going to disagree that would be the place. I think with a 5th trump and an AK he is perfectly justified showing his limit raise may be good for slam. So I don't know what you mean by "keeps cooperating", south made 3 automatic calls in a row then cooperated once, which I think was right.

 

I don't think this is unlucky, I think north overbid like mad. He essentially forced to slam with a balanced 18 opposite a limit raise. Obviously the mirror distribution was unlucky, but even change one of south's hearts to a club to eliminate an outside loser and it's a real stretch to be in slam.

I'm not sure I agree with this.

 

2 was perhaps a necessary overbid. I buy that.

 

Once partner bids 2, 2 tells the tale. I buy that also.

 

When Opener bids 3, however, I think that's GF.

And that is the point at which you go wrong. It may be GF in your system but not in the one given in the problem. We were told 3 was nf. If you don't like it you should write your congressman.

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When Opener bids 3, however, I think that's GF. I don't agree that Responder can bid 3 to play now. Opener has just announced control of all suits but did not bid 2NT. So, I think we are forced beyond 3. Hence, 3 should, IMO, show extras. But, I can even buy that 3 is simply marking time.

I agree with you.

 

At the table, though, both partners agreed that it hadn't been discussed what follow-ups exactly made a call like 3 was GF so at the time it wasn't GF. But in the future I'd like for it to be GF I believe. Certainly I think it makes sense.

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Technically, I missed the 3 as NF part. Oops.

 

That's horrible, IMO, but I suppose I have to accept that.

 

But 3?!?!?

You have limited your hand, you have extra trump length, you have good controls, you aren't even bypassing 3NT. Why not?

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Technically, I missed the 3 as NF part.  Oops. 

 

That's horrible, IMO, but I suppose I have to accept that.

 

But 3?!?!?

You have limited your hand, you have extra trump length, you have good controls, you aren't even bypassing 3NT. Why not?

I understand that I am not going past 3NT, but I am making the last possible call before bypassing 3NT. Hence, partner doesn't know whether to stop on a dime at 3NT or to bid on.

 

As you can see from the actual layout, 6 has no play. However, if Responder has as little difference as AKx xx Q10xxx xxx, the slam is on a hook in trumps. Because North cannot know which doubleton Responder has, he ends up guessing, to some degree.

 

However, change the hand even more slightly, to AKx x Q10xxx xxxx, and the hand doesn't grow up in practice but it does from an evaluation standpoint.

 

What about AKx xx Q10xxxx xx or AK xxx Q10xxxx xx? Either of these, again, is nice for Opener.

 

What about adding in the simple Q of clubs? Now, Opener has the option of playing for a stuff diamond King before eliminating the hearts and spades before throwing whoever has the diamond King in and hoping that person also has the club King.

 

I just think Responder should have more for a 3 call than a boring 5332 with a dead minimum.

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Responder limited his hand with 3D. After opener's 3H (which I think could be interpreted "are you sure we can't play NT"), responder bid 3S ("passing it back to you, I don't have a club stopper"). After that, bids just kept escalating for no real reason...
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i think Responder has taken too much blame here. after the shaded inverted raise(maybe least of evils), he showed a weak inverted raise, and showed his AK of spades.

 

If Opener trusts responder to know he has this great hand, which he should --after having cue'd hearts twice and clubs once, he can now confirm that they were real cue's and not probes. Over 3S, opener can just bid 5D, and let responder decide whether to go to six with, say AKX XXX QTXXXX X, (worst possible acceptance) or pass with about what he actually held.

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Two points:

 

1) Especially at IMPS, you'd sure like to be in 5, not 3NT, when the K is offside.

 

2) 6D by N is very optimistic when he knows he may be losing a trump trick, can be quite certain he'll be losing one club, and may have a heart loser as well. South can't have much more in high cards than the AK and Q, else he wouldn't have limited himself with 3.

 

Bottom line, the auction was reasonable and told North what he needed to know to reach the best contract -- he just stretched at the end.

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