Another "deal with preempt" poll

[hanp]

I think this calls for an offense Mat.

[hotShot]

Without considering any other conclusion, if you write "3♣ only makes" then that would imply the opponents can make exactly 9 tricks with clubs as trumps. The key word being only. If you had written 3♣ or more makes, then we'd start to get there.

 

However, you are missing one key point. When we pass, it is not going to always go P-P-P. Sometimes LHO will raise and they will go down. Sometimes LHO will bid a new suit and they will find an alternative contract that may or may not make. Sometimes partner will take an action. Etc. etc.

If you are nitpicking like that, you should not forget to mention the possibility of misplay.

 

But seriously partners behavior depends on our agreements. We know about our 13 HCP and estimate that opener holds about 5-11 HCP. That leaves the other 2 players with 22-16 HCP. So we assume partner to hold about half of that.

From the simulation of Tjolpe Flodqvist we know partners average shape is:

North: ♠=4,4 ♥=3,1 ♦=3,9 ♣=1,7

I don't think that partner will (or should) enter the auction with 8-11 HCP and a 4342 or 5341 shape.

 

If you would tell me what kind of strength or shape partner should have to act, I could modify my simulation to consider that.

 

LHO's shape is:

West: ♠=4,6 ♥=3,2 ♦=4,0 ♣=1,2

What do you expect him to bid with a 5341 or a 4342 shape and 8-11 HCP?

 

Of cause there is no guarantee that LHO and partner will pass, but it's very likely.

[awm]

The problem with HotShot's numbers is:

 

(1) If opponents can make 4♣ and we can make 3♥, then bidding won't normally cause us to go plus. LHO will just compete to 4♣ and we may get the same -130 we would've gotten passing. Yet his numbers indicate that we would go plus.

 

(2) If we can make 3♥ and opponents can't make 4♣, we still might not go plus, because partner will raise to 4♥ failing on some non-trivial number of those hands (expecting more from our overcall).

 

Combining these, it's not clear that we go plus by bidding every time we can make 3♥.

 

Similarly, just because opponents can make 3♣ does not mean we will go minus by passing. Sometimes LHO will raise to 4♣ failing or bid 3NT failing. Sometimes partner will balance over 3♣-P-P and we will get to game that way.

 

So I expect pass is actually better (and bidding actually worse) than his statistics indicate.

[xcurt]

Just rerun the simulation allowing opener to have only 6♣ and this changes a lot.

 

Now opps only make their 3♣ (or better) 42% of the time, so in 58% of the cases you are better off passing.

You can only make 3♥ or better in 52% of the boards and both sides going down goes up to 23%.

This makes bidding a lot less attractive.

Yes this makes a huge difference. Six card suits are much more common than 7 card suits. If the opponents are going to bid 3m any time they have a weak two in a minor and 2m in conventional, what you know about the preemptors hand a posteriori 3m-doesn't-promise-7 is very different than what you know posteriori 3m-promises-7.

[Phil]

I would not expect a six card suit when the opponents are vulnerable versus not.

 

Ever.