mtvesuvius Posted May 1, 2009 Report Share Posted May 1, 2009 KT6J5AQJ87KQ8 What is this worth in terms of "points"? Playing a 14-16 NT, would you open 1NT? Also, please do not hesitate to use "wtp" or potentially "LOL" since I thought this was simple, but Lynn Deas and a few others thought otherwise. Edit: Lynn and at least 5 others thought that this was worth 17. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrexford Posted May 1, 2009 Report Share Posted May 1, 2009 4(3.33)=13.33. 13.33-16=-2.33. -2.33:-1. 16-1=15. +1 for AQJxx = 16. So, 16. Answer: yes. Open 1NT. WTP, Lynn Deass and others notwithstanding? What, they want +1 for the five-card suit but want to ignore the control-poor nature of the hand, and the stranded Jack for that matter? I mean, the one 10 with the King is nice. I like that a lot. I could be persuded that this is 16.25. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lobowolf Posted May 1, 2009 Report Share Posted May 1, 2009 Most of the points are in aces and kings, and it's a got a good 5-card suit, so I can see thinking twice about upgrading it. However, on the downside, you have the doubleton jack, and no tens (or even nines). I'd call it a good 16, but I wouldn't upgrade it out of a 14-16 NT opener. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtvesuvius Posted May 1, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2009 I also just checked this on the K&R Hand Evaluator and it said 15.75... Interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted May 1, 2009 Report Share Posted May 1, 2009 I am a big fan of upgrading into or beyond various notrump ranges, but this is not one on which I would upgrade. As others have stated, that jx is a negative feature for an upgrade. In addition, we have only 4 controls, which is about average for a 14-16 1N opener, so this is another 'non-upgrade' factor. I don't have any rule about 'factors'... my decisions to upgrade or not are subconscious, in that I decide whether I 'like' the hand too much to open in the notrump range in question, but if I were to adopt a conscious analysis, I think that having an equal number of flaws and positives would mean don't upgrade. Here, the strong 5 card suit is a positive, the 10 in the K10x is a positive, but the Jx and the lack of 'extra' controls constitute offsetting negatives. In other words, to upgrade requires on balance a compelling reason. This hand doesn't measure up imo. A10x xx AQJ87 KQx is an upgrade for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted May 1, 2009 Report Share Posted May 1, 2009 I don't upgrade as often as many, although I invite and bid game both on the light side. To me I wouldn't really consider upgrading this hand beyond a 16. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerclee Posted May 1, 2009 Report Share Posted May 1, 2009 I've had a lot of bad experiences upgrading hands like this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Echognome Posted May 1, 2009 Report Share Posted May 1, 2009 Can't add much to the discussion. I would upgrade the nice diamond suit and downgrade the Jx. I would consider the hand 16 and open accordingly. One other point is that when playing a 14-16 NT, we are then forced to rebid 2NT on 17-19, so I normally prefer to include good 16 counts in 1NT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted May 1, 2009 Report Share Posted May 1, 2009 16 wtp? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted May 1, 2009 Report Share Posted May 1, 2009 amateur Woolsey imitation: you have two flaws of calling this a 17-19 (or w/e):1. it's 16!2. Jx! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mbodell Posted May 1, 2009 Report Share Posted May 1, 2009 I think this is worth more than 16; however, I think it is much closer to 16 than 17. I'd be putting it at 16.25 or so. So I'd be opening it 1nt in a 14-16 nt system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P_Marlowe Posted May 2, 2009 Report Share Posted May 2, 2009 Hi, 16. I would open 1NT. It is a max. for this opening (and I would also sellit as a max. playing 15-17).The question is, if you dont open 1NT, what is the alternative? Selling it as 17-18? If yes, than this is find, if 17-19, I think the band withis too high, you may find yourself begging partnerto stop bidding, sometimes one happens to have super max. With kind regardsMarlowe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricK Posted May 2, 2009 Report Share Posted May 2, 2009 161NT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bill1157 Posted May 2, 2009 Report Share Posted May 2, 2009 exact valuation aside, would you really want to open 1 and rebid 2NT over a 1 level response with this hand? Bill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtvesuvius Posted May 2, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2009 Thanks everybody for confirming that I hadn't lost my mind ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted May 2, 2009 Report Share Posted May 2, 2009 Thanks everybody for confirming that I hadn't lost my mind ;) No one said that - they just said that this hand was worth about 16 HCP. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted May 2, 2009 Report Share Posted May 2, 2009 It's a nice 16, definitely open 1NT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted May 2, 2009 Report Share Posted May 2, 2009 Without looking at other answers I decided 16. The negatives: Jx is worth next to nothing. Ths 5332 shape is so-so. It doesn't have good spot cards. Positives: Good 5-card suit. Most of the secondary cards have support cards. Positives and negatives pretty much wash out - I'd say 16 with a slight + but not enough to be 16 1/2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted May 3, 2009 Report Share Posted May 3, 2009 Most of the points are in aces and kings, and it's a got a good 5-card suit, so I can see thinking twice about upgrading it. However, on the downside, you have the doubleton jack, and no tens (or even nines). I'd call it a good 16, but I wouldn't upgrade it out of a 14-16 NT opener. 16 HCP has an average of around about 5.4 Controls. So while 10/16 HCP are aces or kings this is a below average number of aces and kings in a 16 HCP hand. These functions are approximations (fairly good) to the numbers or aces, kings, queens, jacks in a hand with given HCP. ACES = 0.15 * HCP - 0.5 e.g. with 16 HCP we expect 1.9 ACES KINGS = 0.1 * HCP e.g. with 16 HCP we expect 1.6 KINGS QUEENS = 0.05 * HCP + 0.5 e.g. with 16 HCP we expect 1.3 Queens JACKS = 1 HCP. Yes independent of the number of HCP. e.g. with 16 HCP we expect 1 Jack. The actual hand has 1 ACE which is 0.9 ACEs fewer than average 2 KINGs which is 0.4 KINGs more than average 2 QUEENs which is 0.7 QUEENs more than average 2 JACKs which is 1 JACK more than average I also keep in my mind the approximation for CONTROLS (A=2 K=1) which you can obtain from the approximations above for ACEs and KINGs. CONTROLs = 0.4 * HCP - 1 e.g. with 16 HCP we expect 5.4 CONTROLs as stated at the beginning of this post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted May 3, 2009 Report Share Posted May 3, 2009 KT6J5AQJ87KQ8 What is this worth in terms of "points"? Playing a 14-16 NT, would you open 1NT? 1) 162)YES3) IF YOU want to value this at 17 ok...next hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2009 Report Share Posted May 3, 2009 Without looking at other answers I decided 16. The negatives: Jx is worth next to nothing. Ths 5332 shape is so-so. It doesn't have good spot cards. Positives: Good 5-card suit. Most of the secondary cards have support cards. Positives and negatives pretty much wash out - I'd say 16 with a slight + but not enough to be 16 1/2. Agree with this. The AQJxx is offset by the Jx. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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