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Slam opening lead problem


Gerben42

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Opps bid:

 

1 (1) - 1

3 (2) - 4 (3)

5 (4) - 6

 

(1) 4+

(2) Invite, denies a balanced hand

(3) Shortness in

(4) Cuebid

 

and you hold:

 

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=sqt87h43dkq762ct3]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

What do you lead and why?

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When declarer is sane he has a spade control. But maybe just one, so I lead a spade.

Second choice is a heart to cut down ruffes, but I guess, they won't play a cross ruuf, but will discard on the long clubs, so a spade is clear cut.

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If opps are missing the A, we might need to cash a diamond trick before it disappears (on clubs). And hope there's another defensive trick somewhere.

 

If opps have the A, we need to establish a trick before getting on lead later. The obvious place to set up a trick is spades.

 

To me, the odds favour leading spades.

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