the hog Posted May 20, 2004 Report Share Posted May 20, 2004 What Richard is clearly saying, (well clear to me anyway), is that the hand you gave is huge after a X and a 5D bid, because the values you have are unexpected, but is worth a pass after an immediate 5D bid as 5D bidder is more or less bidding on you having those values.QED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted May 20, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2004 That I understand... (but still don't see what it has to do with conditioned probabilities). I asked a few people and am now convinced pard should perhaps bid 6 on that hand. Still, I don't like double + 5♦ because it puts a lot of pressure into a hand whose only interest in the auction is to pass as soon as possible :D By the way, what do you think a direct 6♦ should show? 12 playing tricks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted May 20, 2004 Report Share Posted May 20, 2004 Whose expected strenght? The following example is dramatically over simplified, however, consider the following: Assume that the preemptor has 10 HCP for his opening bid. In the first example (a direct 5D bid), the hand making the 5D overcall should have approximately 17 HCP. In this case, there are a total of 13 HCP left in the deck. Responder is expected to have ~7. In turn, this means that QJxxxxxxxAxxx is fairly "normal" However, if the sequence starts with a double, followed by a 5D rebid, the doubler promises a significantly stronger hand. Lets assume that doubler needs at least 22 HCP for this sequence. In this case, there are 8 HCP left in the deck and your hand becomes significantly stronger than expected... The underlying principle here is that your expected strength is conditional on partner's expected strength. The stronger that partner is, the weaker the expected value of your hand... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted May 20, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2004 Well, it was responder's expected strenght after all :D But yeah, I understand that. (I'm familiar with the concept, by the way.) My problem was in the first post I didn't quite get your point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted May 22, 2004 Report Share Posted May 22, 2004 ♠QJXX♥XX♦XXX♣AXXX normal hand??? This is exactly the BEST 7 HCP partner can hold, the best hand is never normal, and the normal thing is partner woný have that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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