whereagles Posted May 18, 2004 Report Share Posted May 18, 2004 Here are three decisions after a preempt. All hands are IMPS, vulnerability NV vs NV 1.♠ AKJxx♥ x♦ x♣ AT9xxx Pard..RHO..you1♦......4♥.....?? 2.♠ AKx♥ Kx♦ AKQJTx♣ Kx RHO..you4♥......?? 3.♠ J98xxx♥ KQxx♦ x♣ Jx LHO..RHO3♦.....3NT Your lead? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flame Posted May 18, 2004 Report Share Posted May 18, 2004 1. 4sp , if LHO doubled (i kind of hope he will) ill take it out to 5c.2. 6D (unless partner was passed hand which i would settle for 5D)3. KH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted May 18, 2004 Report Share Posted May 18, 2004 4♠, like flame said... 5♦ to make, if partner has a trick he'll bid 6♦ which I might pull to 6NT in pairs :) small ♥. Leading the K has not much use imo, since you miss the 10, 9,... which could be useful. Leading the 2nd longest suit is usually best I noticed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted May 18, 2004 Report Share Posted May 18, 2004 1. Double2. Double, intending to correct spades or clubs to Diamonds3. Low Heart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flame Posted May 18, 2004 Report Share Posted May 18, 2004 About the lead, i choose the K of heart because as i see it, we need to be agressive on this diffence and i cant say on which suit, it can easily be club, therefore i lead the K of heart which will not sell a quick trick and its more felxiable, if declerer has the hearts i can still have a chance to find my tricks elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flame Posted May 18, 2004 Report Share Posted May 18, 2004 2. Double, intending to correct spades or clubs to Diamonds 4h X p 5c p 5D what does partner suppose to understand from this ?I would think you got two suiter spade and diamond and with QJxxxxxQJxxxx I would correct you to 5sp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted May 18, 2004 Report Share Posted May 18, 2004 1). Double - takeout. If partner passes, not so bad, and if partner gets excited due to a black suit fit, my hand is pretty good for that too. 2). At imps, NV versus NV, DBL is a standout. We might make 6♦ if partner has the ♣A and a third round ♠ control, but no way to find that. However, if partner bids 4♠ and I pull to 5♦ that will clearly be inviting slam, and with ♣A and ♠Q he might well bid it on that auction. 5♦ has no chance of getting you there. And if partner pass 4♥X? You likely will score 2♠, 1♥ and 1♦ at a minimum, and have chances for partners heart trick (to leave 4♥X in). There is also chance partner might have ♣Q so you can get a ♣ trick or second ♦ trick as well. At imps, down two or three in 4♥X will not be horrible given the bidding...since bidding 5♦ here will not get you to six when it makes. 3) Yuck. Partner will need a ♦ trick, and we have to find a lot of additional tricks. 3♥ and a ♦ will not be enough. I guess I will lead a low ♥, but ♥K or tricky ♣x might work out better. ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikestar Posted May 18, 2004 Report Share Posted May 18, 2004 1) Double. We've got to bring clubs into the picture as well as spades. If partner is stong in both black suits, there may be a slam and he may be able to bid it. Even if slam is not in the cards , if partner has S xx C Kxxx (perfectly possible on the bidding) I want to be in 5C, not 4S. We can't count on them doubling us in 4S if it is wrong. 2) Ben makes a fine case for double, but I'd take a shot at 6D. 3) low heart -- works better than KH if partner has AH, works about the same if he has JH. I know players who would bid 3NT here praying that H Jxx will be a stopper with help form partner or that hearts won't be lead. I'd bid it myself in a shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted May 18, 2004 Report Share Posted May 18, 2004 1) 4♠, its just a guess, but I saw an article somewhere where a top player bid 4♠ with this hand, he went 2 off where 5♣ where making if I remember right, but I still think he was right :unsure:, really dislike double because leaves imposible rebid if partner bids 5♦. 2) Double followed by 5♦, From the earlier hand I told my partnr I would bid 4♠ if I had a ♦+♠ 2-suiter, didn´t I? 3) 4th ♥ because it is aproblem, on real life I would ahve some doubts between low ♥ and ♠ (♥K never, it asks for unblock in my system :lol:, and dislike ♥Q as well when not having 3 honnors). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luis Posted May 19, 2004 Report Share Posted May 19, 2004 1) Double, automatic. 2) Double, automatic. 3) hK intending to hold the lead and find the right switch if pd has the hA. I suspect my pd has AKQ of clubs and forgot to double this contract otherwise this is not a problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flame Posted May 19, 2004 Report Share Posted May 19, 2004 Im trying to undersatand the double on the second hand.Lets say you have AKJxx♥ x♦ A109xx♣ xx This is close to the first hand and i guess you would double with it too.Now partners bid 5c, will you pass or bid 5d ?I am guessing 5D , now partner withQxxxxxxAxxxxx do you want him to bid 4sp now ?If the answer is no - then you are midding 5sp makes for 5D down alot.If the answer is yes, then what if you had the hand from the second double ? AKx♥ Kx♦ AKQJTx♣ Kx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luis Posted May 19, 2004 Report Share Posted May 19, 2004 Im trying to undersatand the double on the second hand.Lets say you have AKJxx♥ x♦ A109xx♣ xx This is close to the first hand and i guess you would double with it too.Now partners bid 5c, will you pass or bid 5d ?I am guessing 5D , now partner withQxxxxxxAxxxxx do you want him to bid 4sp now ?If the answer is no - then you are midding 5sp makes for 5D down alot.If the answer is yes, then what if you had the hand from the second double ? AKx♥ Kx♦ AKQJTx♣ Kx I wouldn't double with that hand and is not similar to the 1st one, in the 1st one my pd opened the bidding. I won't double 4h with AKJxx,xx,Axxxx, x Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flame Posted May 19, 2004 Report Share Posted May 19, 2004 Yes you are right luis, my mistake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trpltrbl Posted May 19, 2004 Report Share Posted May 19, 2004 1 ) X2 ) X3 ) ♥ K Mike :rolleyes: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted May 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2004 Thx all for the replies. Here are the hands 1.[hv=d=w&v=n&w=sxxxhxdakqxxckqjx&e=sakjxxhxdxcatxxxx]266|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Pard RHO you1♦...4♥...?? I find it tempting to just play pard for an ace or two and blast 5NT pick-a-slam. In real life East bid the most likely game, 4♠, and just made it (South had QTxx of spades, lol). 2.[hv=d=w&v=n&w=sxxxhxdakqxxckqjx&e=sakjxxhxdxcatxxxx]266|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv] RHO you4♥...?? I don't like double + 5♦ as slam invite. First, pard can pass and you know that's not good. Second, it's possible he'll bid spades if you correct 5♣ to 5♦, playing you for a spade/diam two-suiter. Third and last, you're pushing this hand's most important decision into a player whose hand rates to be very weak. Can you really blame him for passing 5♦ on ♠ QJxx♥ xx♦ xxx♣ Axxx "Excuse me for not bidding 6 with this worthless hand. It was so obvious." he'll say. I'd much rather spare him the headache and bid 6♦ myself, prepared to apologize if we miss two aces. Heck, maybe we can even make it with two aces out! Say pard turns out with ♠ QJxxx♥ x♦ xx♣ QJxxx Opps lead a heart to the ace and South shoots back.. a spade! 3.[hv=d=w&v=n&n=skqtxhjtxdkxxct9x&w=sxhxxdaqxxxxxcqxx&e=saxhaxxxdjtcakxxx&s=sj98xxxhkqxxdxcjx]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Spade defeats it, though a heart needs less from pard and therefore seems more sensible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted May 19, 2004 Report Share Posted May 19, 2004 On your analys of board 2: >Can you really blame him for passing 5♦ on >♠ QJxx>♥ xx>♦ xxx>♣ Axxx You doubled and then introduced a new suit at the 5 level... I will gladly "blame" partner for passing 5♦ with a first round control and a QJxx in a suit where I rate to have values... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikestar Posted May 19, 2004 Report Share Posted May 19, 2004 On hand #2, Ben is right that 5D here is a clearcut slam try over 4S (4N was available as ununsual), but what if partner bids 5C? Might he not have a spade diamond two suiter with game values? Pehaps the best way to bid this hand is to double, intending to bid 5D over 4S, but to bid 6D over 5C. I think a penalty pass is unlikely here as partner will assume they have at least 10 trumps, which means we are certain to have a nine-card fit or two eight-card fits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted May 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2004 On your analys of board 2: >Can you really blame him for passing 5♦ on >♠ QJxx>♥ xx>♦ xxx>♣ Axxx You doubled and then introduced a new suit at the 5 level... I will gladly "blame" partner for passing 5♦ with a first round control and a QJxx in a suit where I rate to have values... Go ahead and blame him for having what he's expected to have: the usual 7 hcp one places partner with after a preempt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flame Posted May 19, 2004 Report Share Posted May 19, 2004 On your analys of board 2: >Can you really blame him for passing 5♦ on >♠ QJxx>♥ xx>♦ xxx>♣ Axxx You doubled and then introduced a new suit at the 5 level... I will gladly "blame" partner for passing 5♦ with a first round control and a QJxx in a suit where I rate to have values... How is this working with the law of tatal tricks ?bidding when there are about 17 total trumps .And another question what do you bid over 4h withAKXXXXAKXXAKX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted May 19, 2004 Report Share Posted May 19, 2004 "Can you really blame him for passing 5♦ on ♠ QJxx♥ xx♦ xxx♣ Axxx Are you serious? If my partner passed I'd be looking for another partner. Your comment regarding the "expected" 6-7 points is fatuous. That might apply if you bid an immediate 5D, but not in this sequence where he could have nothing at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted May 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2004 Why should I be kidding? Passing may be wrong, but chances are it will happen more often than not. That's what you get for leaving the important decisions to the weak hand... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted May 19, 2004 Report Share Posted May 19, 2004 On your analys of board 2: >Can you really blame him for passing 5♦ on >♠ QJxx>♥ xx>♦ xxx>♣ Axxx You doubled and then introduced a new suit at the 5 level... I will gladly "blame" partner for passing 5♦ with a first round control and a QJxx in a suit where I rate to have values... Go ahead and blame him for having what he's expected to have: the usual 7 hcp one places partner with after a preempt. There is a concept known as conditional probabilityMight be useful to learn it... Consider the auction (4H) - 5D - (P) - ??? Compare this to the auction (4H) - X - (P) - 4S(P) - 5D - (P) - ??? Your expected hand strength is quite different in the two cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted May 20, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2004 Whose expected strenght? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted May 20, 2004 Report Share Posted May 20, 2004 Doubler's of course!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted May 20, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2004 What does that have to do with conditioned probability then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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