A Complete Guess or Not

[Cascade]

[hv=d=w&v=e&w=sk3hak6dkj9ckq987&e=st642hj9dt52cajt5]266|100|Scoring: IMP

2♣ Pass 2♠ Dbl

2NT Pass 3NT All Pass

[/hv]

 

2♣ shows 18-20 Balanced

 

2♠ is a puppet to 2NT

 

The lead directional double gets the opponents off to the best lead of the ♠J which is ducked to your king-small.

 

You have two options:

 

1. Win and play south for the ♦ A

 

2. Duck and play south for the ♦ Q

 

Is this just a guess or am I missing something?

[whereagles]

After 3 mins looking at it (a lot, for my standards) I don't see anything better than guessing.

[gnasher]

The two lines aren't equal, for two reasons:

 

- Winning requires only that South have ♦A. For ducking to work, South must have ♦Q and North must have ♦A.

 

- Winning works when North has ♦AQ and a singleton spade, whereas ducking doesn't.

[Apollo81]

South is more likely to have any outstanding high cards because of the double (with AQ987 and out he may not have doubled). North is more likely to have any outstanding diamonds because he has shorter spades. This makes (1) playing South for the ♦A a clear favorite, besides the reasons gnasher stated.

[Finch]

I don't believe the double makes South more likely to have the ace of diamonds. Holding AQ98x(x) of spades is enough to make it worthwhile doubling.

 

However, gnasher's arguments seem good to me.

[Apollo81]

I strongly disagree Frances. Just because you (maybe me also) would double with AQ987 and out doesn't mean that everyone would. If just 25% of people would not double with that hand, then that is a very significant inference.

[jdonn]

I strongly disagree Frances. Just because you (maybe me also) would double with AQ987 and out doesn't mean that everyone would. If just 25% of people would not double with that hand, then that is a very significant inference.

But isn't it more like 0.44% in this case?

[Trinidad]

If anything, I think that double tends to deny high cards outside spades, rather than show them. If I have high cards all around, why would I double to indicate a spade lead? Let partner pick the lead that he thinks is best.

 

Ok, the double is not purely lead directing. It may also suggest a save in spades. But the same reasoning applie: Why would I suggest a save in spades if I have high cards all around? That is an easy route to an expensive phantom save.

 

So, the double shows cards in spades and tends to deny high cards in the other suits.

 

Rik

[Apollo81]

I strongly disagree Frances.  Just because you (maybe me also) would double with AQ987 and out doesn't mean that everyone would.  If just 25% of people would not double with that hand, then that is a very significant inference.

But isn't it more like 0.44% in this case?

Well South can't have six spades (else would have overtaken partner's jack). Therefore South has AQ987 at best and maybe a queen or two, or he has the ♦A. I bet a lot of people would only double with the ♦A also with such a (relatively speaking) poor spade suit; people seem to be very concerned about being rewound in my experience.

[MFA]

I would win T1.

[gwnn]

If I have high cards all around, why would I double to indicate a spade lead? Let partner pick the lead that he thinks is best.

Because I have a good suit of my own with outside entries?