Where are the Black Kings?

[mtvesuvius]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=st987h873d985cqj9&s=saqj63h9dkqj7ca43]133|200|Scoring: IMP

S      W      N     E

1♠ - (2♥) - 3♠ - (4♥)

4♠ - All Pass

[/hv]

 

K♥ lead overtaken by the Ace. 2♦ switch, K♦ and the A♦. 3♦ continuation, 8♦ and T♦ which you win with the Queen. Your Plan?

[quiddity]

I don't know. It's often right to play overcaller's partner for trump suit honors, but in this case East bid 4H with very little. If West were 1525 he might have bid Michaels; if he were 1534, then East bid 4H with Kxx Axxx xxx xxx.

 

On the other hand, if West has the guarded SK then East has some shape and a working king for his raise. Maybe:

 

Kxx        x

KQJxxx   Axx

Ax          Txxx

xx          Kxxxx

[Hanoi5]

I'm also gonna play ♠A and another. A singleton ♠K is not that weird.

[vuroth]

Is it reasonable to assume that LHO started with 5♥ and 3♦, and RHO with 4♥ and 3♦? It looks that way to me from the play.

[Hanoi5]

♦A3 ♦T642

 

This seems more likely.

[Old York]

Your ♦King at trick 2 may have made the defense easier, if you had played ♦Jack then the suit may not have been returned so eagerly

 

You now face a loser in each suit and a possible Diamond ruff, so you are forced to play ♠Ace hoping that the King is singleton, or ♣King is onside

 

If you think that the Diamond switch was a smokescreen, then play towards ♣Queen, finessing later in trumps. If you go down, at least you will not be alone

EDIT: In fact, you may as well lead to ♦9 and take both finesses

 

I think East has both Kings but then, 4♥ is failing badly :)

 

Tony

[bill1157]

I think ♣K is finesseable and east has ♠ singleton. It just looks wrong for east to bid game with Kxx.AJxx.xxxx.xxx since he would be pushing NS into a making 4♠. It looks more likely for east to have: x.AJxx.xxxx.Kxx.

 

Bill

[vuroth]

Your ♦King at trick 2 may have made the defense easier, if you had played ♦Jack then the suit may not have been returned so eagerly

Which one is more deceptive - the J or the Q?

[vuroth]

Is it reasonable to assume that LHO started with 5♥ and 3♦, and RHO with 4♥ and 3♦? It looks that way to me from the play.

Never mind. Either way, both opponents should have at least 2 clubs.

 

What my real question was - why not go Q♣ now, see who has the K? That might help me sort out who has the K♠, so I can decide whether or not to finesse or drop for it.

 

The only thing that bugs me is that I wonder if RHO could possibly have both kings? (Certainly LHO shouldn't have them both)

[gdawg01]

It seems we cannot avoid a club loser even if K clubs is onside, no? Unless RHO has exactly K 10 (with even K 10 x, on the lead of Q, RHO will go up with K and we cannot stop them scoring the 10), that is.

 

So we need to either find the K of spades with RHO or to drop the singleton K of spades offside..

 

I agree with vuroth on the club play first. If we lose the club finesse, then we better find the K of spades in a finessable AND doubleton 10 of clubs, preferably with RHO, to avoid really sweating it :P

 

My 0.02 -- could be way off base here, as always!

[Old York]

The ♣10 is not important, the third club can be discarded on the 13th Diamond

 

The more I look at this hand, the more I feel that the overtake with ♥Ace and switch to Diamonds was a smokescreen. Why not continue Hearts and force you to ruff? .. probably because East has ♣King

 

Tony

[gdawg01]

Old York :

 

Good point, heh. Did not read o/p carefully enough to see the diamonds played.

[quiddity]

What my real question was - why not go Q♣ now, see who has the K? That might help me sort out who has the K♠, so I can decide whether or not to finesse or drop for it.

You'll be down if East has the CK and West started with a doubleton diamond.

[cherdanno]

What my real question was - why not go Q♣ now, see who has the K?  That might help me sort out who has the K♠, so I can decide whether or not to finesse or drop for it.

You'll be down if East has the CK and West started with a doubleton diamond.

There are other problems with calling for ♣Q now, unless opponents are very sleepy...

[eyhung]

What my real question was - why not go Q♣ now, see who has the K?  That might help me sort out who has the K♠, so I can decide whether or not to finesse or drop for it.

You'll be down if East has the CK and West started with a doubleton diamond.

This is good thinking but let's go one step deeper.

 

LHO has ♥KQJxx(x) and ♦ Ax(x) for his overcall. He needs to have at least one of the two black kings for his overcall. RHO has the HA and has shown up with nothing else. If RHO raised on spade shortness and out, you're down -- you must lose a trick in every suit, so assume RHO has a black king and the kings are split.

 

There appear to be two reasonable lines (remember you are stuck in your hand, not in dummy, so you cannot lead the CQ for a discovery play):

 

(1) Clear trumps from the top. Obviously wins when RHO has the CK (50%)

 

(2) Lead a club to the jack. Wins when [LHO has CK + diamonds are not 4=2 (so no diamond ruff) + nobody has stiff club] (<50%) OR [RHO has CK and LHO has singleton SK] (an extra small %).

 

Which line is better? I don't think we need to crunch the probabilities. Rather it's better to think of it from a bridge perspective. Would RHO be more likely to raise to 4H on ♠ Kxx ♥ Axxx ♦ xx ♣ xxxx or ♠ x ♥ Axxx ♦ xxxx ♣ Kxxx ? In my mind the latter hand is far more likely -- the spade king looks far more dubious to me as advancer because the spade ace is likely to be sitting over it. This factor does not apply to overcaller's hand : the guarded spade king is not a negative sitting behind the 1S opener. So I would take the prosaic line (1) -- play overcaller for the SK and advancer for the CK.

[eyhung]

I have to say one more thing: I hate North's 3S call. The hand has no shape, no controls, and 4 bad trumps. The vulnerability is also the worst for preemption. Fred has remarked earlier that a preemptive raise should have one extra value -- a fifth trump, a singleton, or a control (ace or king). This hand has no such redeeming value and should be passed.