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What's the best way to play this?


Hanoi5

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I think I play on clubs first before diamonds so I can lead the J from board and if covered, win, if not play the A and then make ruffing finesses in diamonds (since I can pitch a on a ). The hard part with this is pulling trump and keeping transportation open. Without looking too deeply I think A pitching a d, then J would be my line.
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Trying to throw a diamond from dummy and ruff three diamonds in dummy won't work - they''ll switch to trumps on winning A. For the same reason (and some others) I can't ruff the hearts good. That leaves the diamond finesse.

 

There's no reason to play LHO for K, and playing RHO for K requires less elsewhere, so I'm going to run J. I should draw at least one trump first.

 

One trump caters for someone being 1-1 in the pointed suits. If I draw only one trump, I go off when someone has one diamond and two spades.

 

Should I draw a second trump? After A throwing a diamond, J, K, J, 10, ruff, I'm OK if trumps were 3-2 - ruff a heart, draw the trump, knock out the ace of clubs - or if diamonds were 3-3 - knock out A before drawing the remaining trumps. If trumps are 4-1 and diamonds 4-2 the other way, I have to knock out A and hope that it's won by the hand with the trumps, who can't hurt me.

 

These seem very close to me, so I had to seek electronic assistance. Richard Pavlicek's dual suit break calculator tells me that:

- 4-2 in the pointed suits occurs 9.28% of the time. It's only a problem if A is in the wrong hand, so drawing two trumps fails 4.64% of the time.

- 2-1 or 2-0 in the pointed suits is less common, at 3.72%. This is when not drawing a second trump fails.

 

I should just have written "Agree with Patapon" and saved myself some time.

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Why not throw a club at trick one and tempo the opponent by playing a club, then following the line Andy described. If diamonds go 5-1 that is going to work poorly, but the main line only works in that case when RHO has xx, K or xxx, Kxxxx in spades and diamonds.
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There's no reason to play LHO for K, and playing RHO for K requires less elsewhere, so I'm going to run J.

Well, it depends on the auction which wasn't given. If the diamond suit has been concealed (say a relay auction with N giving the shape) during the auction then RHO with the K might well cover the J. If he doesn't, then that presents some chance that LHO has the K instead.

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Why not throw a club at trick one and tempo the opponent by playing a club, then following the line Andy described. If diamonds go 5-1 that is going to work poorly, but the main line only works in that case when RHO has xx, K or xxx, Kxxxx in spades and diamonds.

If you're not worried about diamonds 5-1, you can simply play one trump, two rounds of diamonds, ruff a diamond high, draw trumps, knock out A.

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