Rate this hand and plan your play #6

[inquiry]

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[hv=n=skj7hk972daj9ckq9&s=sa3haq3dq8754ca82]133|200|Opening lead is the heart JACK - if your line requires specific knowledge about fall of cards, let me know. But in general, what is your strategy.

 

[/hv]

[Finch]

Unless I'm missing something (again), we just need to play diamonds for 5 tricks (or 3 tricks plus hearts 3-3 plus the spade finesse or a squeeze).

This means we can't cope with any 4-1 or 5-0 breaks except singleton K onside

 

The suit is a complete guess, all of Kx (low to the jack, ace), Kxx (low to the jack, queen; or run the queen, low to the jack) and K10x (run the queen, low to the 9)are equally likely.

 

You will cash a few outside tricks in case something very strange happens but have to leave a few entries.

 

The only interesting thing is singleton K or K10 doubleton on your left. If you start low to the Jack and the K goes in you have to guess how likely LHO is to have K10 doubleton. Initially that is a more likely holding than singleton king, but they won't always play the K from K10.

[jdonn]

I pretty much agree with Frances as far as the diamond plays at this point being equivalent (except the last paragraph - were you posting sleepy again?) I would try to cash three rounds of hearts first, and if LHO shows up with 4+ hearts then I would play him for Kx of diamonds. If hearts are 3-3 then I'll play the fourth pitching a diamond, and am likely to try cashing clubs to get a further count if they pitched any, similarly basing my diamond play on the club count. If hearts are 2-4 or 1-5 I will play for KTx of diamonds onside in case they are dumb enough not to cover the queen, with the alternative being Kxx onside. I can't see much other reason in that case to choose one over the other.

 

I suppose I should also play 3 rounds of clubs as well in all cases, since a 5-2 or 6-1 break either way can have a great influence. However I'm not inclined to score multiple undertricks by playing off two rounds of spades before playing on diamonds.

[Finch]

You can't play both three rounds of hearts and three rounds of clubs before touching diamonds if the end result of that is that you decide to play LHO for K10x

[awm]

I don't get the problem with singleton diamond king on the left. Don't you just cash the ♦J and see if LHO shows out, then let the nine ride if LHO did show out?

 

There is perhaps a question as to whether to hook LHO for the heart ten (paying off to the lead from Jxx) or simply cash three hearts from the top. On the surface it seems like the fourth heart trick doesn't actually help you (still have to guess diamonds), but it might assist in getting count if you don't think the Jxx lead is at all likely.

[Finch]

I don't get the problem with singleton diamond king on the left. Don't you just cash the ♦J and see if LHO shows out, then let the nine ride if LHO did show out?

Only if you think of it (hence the 'sleepy' comment)

[awm]

It seems there is also the possibility that LHO holds ♦KTxx or ♦Kxxx.

 

In this case you can play diamonds for three tricks, but not for more. So it would pay to score four hearts, bringing you up to twelve tricks so you can potentially get the thirteenth from a showup squeeze in spades.

 

So perhaps the right line is to start with hearts, playing LHO for JT8x if he doesn't show out earlier in the play. This pays off to the brilliant Jxx lead, but gives you some extra chances. You're still going to have to guess diamonds. The options are:

 

(1) Play for Kx or K onside. Slight extra chance if Kxxx onside and ♠Q onside.

(2) Play for KTx or K onside, or the additional chance of KTxx onside with ♠Q onside.

(3) Lead the queen, same as (2) except you pick up Kxxx onside and lose to stiff king onside.

 

A priori the second line is best because KTxx is a lot more likely than Kxxx onside. But the heart break (and the first two rounds of clubs) can change the odds by making LHO less likely to hold diamond length...