vuroth Posted March 31, 2009 Report Share Posted March 31, 2009 Right after I chose my line last night, I saw an alternative line that I thought was a tiny bit better. Maybe there's a better line still, not sure. Nonetheless, I thought I would share. Opponents silent, playing 5♦ [hv=d=s&v=e&n=sat64hqj9dcaqt873&s=s7ht54dakj97653c4]133|200|Scoring: MP5♣ led.[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wackojack Posted March 31, 2009 Report Share Posted March 31, 2009 Assuming no indication from the bidding I would take the obvious line. Ace clubs AK diamonds hoping for the queen to drop. Not very good odds, about 25% + singleton K clubs coming down what ever that is. (1.5%?) Another line is to play west to have led from Kxx. (Finesse, Ace clubs discarding heart, ruff club. AK diamonds, spade to ace, club discarding second heart) A priori odds of clubs breaking Kxx opposite xxx is about 31% (I think). However the actual odds of choosing to lead from Kxx as opposed to leading a heart or a spade must be a multiple less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbforster Posted March 31, 2009 Report Share Posted March 31, 2009 A priori odds of clubs breaking Kxx opposite xxx is about 31% (I think). However the actual odds of choosing to lead from Kxx as opposed to leading a heart or a spade must be a multiple less. 3-3 break is 35%, K onside would bring that down to 17%. Less since the club was chosen as the most attractive lead, implying LHO lacks the AK♥ or KQ♠ or various other holdings that are harder to quantify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trumpace Posted March 31, 2009 Report Share Posted March 31, 2009 Assuming no indication from the bidding I would take the obvious line. Ace clubs AK diamonds hoping for the queen to drop. Not very good odds, about 25% + singleton K clubs coming down what ever that is. (1.5%?) Another line is to play west to have led from Kxx. (Finesse, Ace clubs discarding heart, ruff club. AK diamonds, spade to ace, club discarding second heart) A priori odds of clubs breaking Kxx opposite xxx is about 31% (I think). However the actual odds of choosing to lead from Kxx as opposed to leading a heart or a spade must be a multiple less. How does singleton K help in the first line? Also clubs Kxx with LHO being 31% seems like an overestimate, even if you assume that the lead can be from the K. Anyway, my guess: the point of the hand is to decide how to get to hand to play the ♦AK. ♠A and ruff is probably better than trying to ruff a ♣ back to hand, in case ♣5 is singleton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted March 31, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2009 Anyway, my guess: the point of the hand is to decide how to get to hand to play the ♦AK. ♠A and ruff is probably better than trying to ruff a ♣ back to hand, in case ♣5 is singleton. Yup. Won the A♣, clicked on a small ♣ on the board and thought to myself "wait, I bet a ♠ was 1% better. oh well, it won't matter" It mattered. Q♦ was doubleton, and we were the only pair in 5♦. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Echognome Posted March 31, 2009 Report Share Posted March 31, 2009 Right after I chose my line last night, I saw an alternative line that I thought was a tiny bit better. Maybe there's a better line still, not sure. Nonetheless, I thought I would share. Opponents silent, playing 5♦ [hv=d=s&v=e&n=sat64hqj9dcaqt873&s=s7ht54dakj97653c4]133|200|Scoring: MP5♣ led.[/hv] The auction would help a bit. I think it makes a difference as to how likely the lead was a singleton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted March 31, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2009 I dealt and opened 4♦, partner raised to 5♦. Opponents were silent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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