Another Zar question

EricK · May 13, 2004

1) I calculated the average number of Zar distribution points over all possible bridge hands and got 11.77.

The average number of Zar HCP is 13.

Therefore (ignoring adjustments for short suit honours, and concentrated honours etc), the average number of Zar points is 24.77.

This means (if my calculations are correct!) that a "Zar opening bid" is only a Jack and a bit above average. And an average hand with Spades is very nearly an opening bid.

Also, because these figures ignore fit points and fitting honour points, two average hands with a fit should together have a good shot at game.

Are my figures and conclusions right?

Eric

tysen2k · May 14, 2004

Your calculations are right. The average Zar distribution is 11.77.

However, two average hands together take on average 8.43 tricks in their best contract. "Two jacks and a bit" probably will increase this by about half a trick, bringing you close to 9 tricks, but not 10.

Tysen

mikestar · May 14, 2004

Two average hands plus 2 Jacks and a bit = 9 tricks in a suit or 8 in NT. This is in accord with my experience playing Precision, opening 5-3-3-2 11-counts. In our partnership we amended Culbertson's mantra "an opening bid opposite an opening bid is a game" to "an opening bid opposite an opening bid is a game invitation."

Zar · May 18, 2004

Wow ... didn't know about this thread either...

I'll read through it tomorrow, but for now just a quick note. I cannot find the thread where we discussed the 5-3-1 method versus Zar Points, WTC (Winning Trick Count) etc. To avoid duplicate posting, I just want to say that I posted the extended results in the original thread "Zar Points - Useful or waste of energy".

I'll go through this thread tomorrow and see if there are any unanswered questions.

Make it a great day:

ZAR

Zar · May 18, 2004

Hi, guys:

*** mikestar wrote: "two average hands with a fit should together have a good shot at game."

The "average" expected distribution reflected in Distributive Zar Points is the 5-3-3-2 for 11 points - I know you guys are fans of assigning 0.25, 0.75, 0.77 etc. points but Zar Points happen to work with simple numbers only :-)

So with 11 distributive and 13 HCP+Controls, gives the average expected hand 24 Zar Points - a Q less than the 26 needed for opening. That's stated in the article, along with the nice observation that this fits the WBF definition for an opening hand, which is "A Queen-worth above average hand".

So far so good :-) Two openings hand with a fit a still 2 average hands with a fit and 2 Q worth more - Zar Points assigns Superfit points, rather than fit points, I hope you have noticed that.

So, you can make simple experiments if 5332 against 3235 or 3325 etc. PLUS 2 Queens give you a good shot at Game - once again, numbers like 0.77, 0.25 etc. "splitting hears" don't exists in Nature :-)

Hope that helps. Cheers:

ZAR

inquiry · May 19, 2004

Subtracting ZAR points due to misfits.

In another thread, Zar mentioned subtract 3 points if you raise partner with 3 card support when he has only promised a four card suit. This seemed logical enough at the time. But looking at a bunch of tysen2’s hands with what might be called ZAR disasters, I examined the extreme hands, things like where you can win 9 tricks but ZAR points suggest you bid 7 (a four trick difference) or 6 (3 trick difference).

These hand basically all share one major similarity, a high ZAR count due to a lot of distributional points and being tremendous misfits. From a real world point of view, everyone treads lightly with huge misfits, so I doubt people will be leaping around to slam on these hands willy nilly (and indeed a lot of them are off one or two aces, so grand slam and small slam will be easily avoid with blackwood or cue-bidding). But that raises the question, can a Zar point correction, like the minus 3 points for only three trumps above be applied.

That is if you end up supporting partner with only two trumps, when he expects three, would you also subtract 3 points? How about if you have a singleton? Here are two hands from Tysen’s example data set that the top contact is 3-level, but ZAR points are there for grand slam..