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Lead Problem


kfay

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Why on earth did I double 5??

Because 4 might actually be a winner, in which case you need to protect your score. (If partner found the double of 3, it might very well be found at the other table too.)

 

I lead my .

 

Partner will have some values, among which could be the minor aces.

 

a) If partner has both aces: A club is highly likely to be right.

:D If partner has only the A: A club will not cost a reasonable amount of the time.

c) If partner has only the A: A club is highly likely to be right.

d) If partner has no aces: A club will not cost a reasonable amount of the time.

 

Obviously a) is not as likely as the other scenarios, but B) and c) must be virtually equal.

 

I agree however that a is probably a bit more "safe" than a , if your aim solely to beat the contract, but I weakly believe that a is a long term winner, imp-wise.

 

The few times my -lead gives away the contract, I'll live with the raised eyebrows from the "solid" experts. I've looked silly before.

 

Edit: Oops, MP. Changes matter significantly.

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Why on earth did I double 5??

Because 4 might actually be a winner, in which case you need to protect your score.

Huh? We're both passed hands, really looks to me like we're making a save. Though we might have a lot of tricks in spades.

 

I'd expect opps to have 10 or 11 tricks. If they've got 10, we've already done our job by pushing them up a level. If they've got 11, we give ourselves a bottom instead of a 35-45% board by doubling.

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K.

 

I think a club is huge error. If partner really has clubs, they already lost the board between being on the 5-level and blowing up 5. If he doesn't this is just asking to watch them run winners.

 

I also think doubling is a huge error since a significant fraction of the field is defending 4 and we're giving up our free-roll against those pairs.

 

A isn't crazy but I want to combine chances for the maximum beat with chances for any beat.

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