Jump to content

Maybe the hardest bidding problem I have had ...


Cascade

Recommended Posts

Dealer: West Vul: NS Scoring: IMP A AQJ643 AKQJ32

 

West North East South

 

 4    4    Pass  ?

 

Is 5NT pick-a-slam?

 

Otherwise how do you cope without a spade fit and a decent hand without clear direction.

 

This came up in practice this afternoon - GIB opened 4 if it is relevant.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would just bid 6. There's no sensible way to find out if partner has the K, and even if he does clubs might be 6511 or 6520. Since I need 16:13 odds on making 7, bidding 7 seems anti-percentage.

 

I think 7 isn't unreasonable, and I will take the push if they save in 6, since, assuming +1100 against hearts, the IMP odds are now 9:20 [1].

 

[1] -1370, +1100 is lose 7, going to -1370, -100 which is lose 16 or -1370, +2140 which is win 13.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If 5NT is pick a slam then that followed by raising 6m to 7m and 7C over 6S. Else 7C directly.

 

I don't think that this is a hard bidding problem.

It's easier if 5NT is pick-a-slam.

 

Its almost impossible if not (and you have no other way to show two suits in one go at this level with this extra strength).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What do you guys think partner will do over a 6 bid, looking at the K?

I think he would usually pass. After all, partner knows we are taking a little bit of a shot and counting on him for something. I think partner's lack of a single club honor or first round heart control would almost always cause him to pass this, and he would not hang us for catching such a reasonable dummy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5NT ought to be pick a slam. To bid GSF, you could bid 5-5-5NT.

 

I bid to the seven level, offering a choice of minors on the way if I can. The odds of partner's having K are pretty high; if he doesn't maybe he'll have an entry.

 

I'd like to be able to get to 7NT opposite something like AKQ10xxx xx xx 10x, or any hand with K and A, but I can't, reliably. I could try 5NT-6m-6-6-7m, but I'd probably just get a puzzled look and a pass. Anyway, 7NT might be disastrous opposite a hand without 10 but with a singleton in the minor that isn't trumps.

 

If I'm forced to guess which minor to play in, which one should I choose? It's not always right to play in the stronger trump suit, but (using a priori probabilities and various approximations):

Opposite 10x-10x, 7 is slightly better, but there's not much in it.

Opposite x-xxx, 7 is 50% (diamonds 3-3 or Kx in either hand) and 7 is hopeless.

Opposite xxx-x, 7 is 13% (K singleton) and 7 is 20% (Kx onside).

Opposite x-10xx, 7 is over 60% (diamonds 3-3 or Kx in either hand or LHO having xx) and 7 is hopeless.

Opposite 10xx-x, 7 is 13% (K singleton) and 7 is 45% (Kx/Kxx onside).

 

So 7 appears to gains more than 7.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those bidding 7NT, how do you expect partner to pick the right slam?! 9 times out of 10 he's just going to repeat his , he cannot be expected to understand he should give preference to a 3-card minor.

 

Just 7 for me. Could be wrong, could be right... When it's wrong, I'm probably not making 6 either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6. I smell the K to my left...

 

I'm afraid 5NT might be taken wrongly (Josephine?) but if I don't have that sort of agreement, it might be a gooid way to reach the slam in a minor. 5NT could also lead to 6, there are 19HCP missing, opener should have at least 6 so partner's spades could be as good (or better) than my clubs. The real problem is who holds the K, if partner, 7 is on; If they have it, we have to play in clubs (or diamonds)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those bidding 7NT, how do you expect partner to pick the right slam?! 9 times out of 10 he's just going to repeat his , he cannot be expected to understand he should give preference to a 3-card minor.

I assume you mean 5NT. I plan to follow the sequence 5NT-6-7.

 

Just 7 for me. Could be wrong, could be right... When it's wrong, I'm probably not making 6 either.

When it's wrong, it'll usually be because partner doesn't have K. In such a situation, won't 6 usually be either cold or very good?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with Han. Sorry, I also don't think this is hard.

I think it is only easy if you have a clear agreement that something (presumably 5NT) shows a two-suiter and even then the judgement could become difficult.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those bidding 7NT, how do you expect partner to pick the right slam?! 9 times out of 10 he's just going to repeat his , he cannot be expected to understand he should give preference to a 3-card minor.

Why not?

 

I think if 5NT is pick-a-slam then a hand 5/5 in the minors would be one of the sorts of hands where you might make that bid. Since you don't have a spade fit and are not that keen on 6NT then distributional with both minors seems reasonably likely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Assuming 5NT is pick-a-slam.

 

For those who bid 5NT and then 7 over 6 clearly offering a choice ...

 

What do you expect partner to do with 2=1 in the minors?

I expect him to bid 7, unless his spades are completely solid. I've shown equal minors - 5NT-6-6NT is just to play, so this is the only way to force a choice between the minors.

 

I'm not sure what your point is. If he's 2=1 in the minors, which minor we play in is rarely going to matter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I will just bid 7. I believe that 7 is the most likely grand, and I believe that partner is likely to have one of several hands that will allow me to take all 13 tricks.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I bid 7, I expect partner to have either K or good enough spades to rectify to 7. I don't think you should overcall 4 on junk. RHO might have 5 clubs but it is not that likelly.

 

IMO 5NT is a clear GSF, but I am not used of the pick a slam convention.

 

To gnasher: 5-5-5NT as GSF..... maybe, but you cannot GSF when partner bids 6 something, when you have the bid for direct 5NT you just use it before partner can preempt based on a shortness you don't care about.

 

I like the 6 bid idea to find out where K is, but we should have 10 for that, I ain't playing 6 opposite a possible singleton or void when we could have grand in 2 other strains.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Assuming 5NT is pick-a-slam.

 

For those who bid 5NT and then 7 over 6 clearly offering a choice ...

 

What do you expect partner to do with 2=1 in the minors?

I expect him to bid 7, unless his spades are completely solid. I've shown equal minors - 5NT-6-6NT is just to play, so this is the only way to force a choice between the minors.

 

I'm not sure what your point is. If he's 2=1 in the minors, which minor we play in is rarely going to matter.

Just wondering when you expect partner to bid spades.

 

I suppose since we have not shown any support she will need solid spades to correct.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5NT ought to be pick a slam.

 

What if partner picks SIX SPADES? KQ9765432, xx, K, x

 

 

Me, when I have no realistic solution I simply try to go plus - I bid 6C.

You can always correct to 7.

 

I agree with trying to go plus in principle, but it's just too likely partner has the K here imo.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...