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Axx

QJ9x

T8xx

xx

 

partner opens 1NT non-vulnerable at mp's. what's your plan?

 

your partner's 1NT opener never is a 14 count, could be a very very bad (maybe bottom 5%) 18 count and includes about a third of his 5M332's in the range.

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I don't see an 8th point anywhere.

 

I don't even know why your asking this question, unless game happened to make opposite pard's 17 count, or some "expert" berated you for not inviting. :)

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stayman. invite in pass 2. invite NT over 2...

Looks like a zero to me :)

I think you are being very harsh; I would estimate that stayman is only a small loser (something like a 40-45% action, if passing 1N is a 50% action). I would bid stayman if I were swinging for tops.

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I just want to clarify. Is the view of everyone that this is a non-problem but

Axx

QJxx

Jxxx

xx

would be a bid, or at least a 'problem'?

I would stayman this hand.

I wouldn't. The J isn't enough for me.

 

I would Stayman Axx QJTx Jxxx xx however.

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Yeah, pretty much. Your hand becomes a 'bad' 8 count I suppose because it now has less than the average number of high spots, so I suppose it's more of a problem than a clear bid.

 

I know there's not a world of difference between the 2 hands. But you have to draw a line somewhere and say what's good enough to invite and what isn't, and opposite a 1NT bid, the ol' 4-3-2-1 point count with a decent 5 card suit being worth a point, and a few 10s and 9s being worth half a point is just as good as any.

 

You can't really get any more accurate without peering into your partner's hand to see where you want to be, and even then you may need to peer into your opponents hand. And even then you may need to know what they will lead or how they will defend.

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I just want to clarify. Is the view of everyone that this is a non-problem but

Axx

QJxx

Jxxx

xx

would be a bid, or at least a 'problem'?

I would pass both.

 

At mps, bidding is lunacy unless swinging for tops, with the corollary that one is collecting zeros more often than tops.

 

This approach does depend, to a modest degree, on your partnership style about invites. Mine is that opener is supposed to accept unless he has a reason not to, while others may choose that he is supposed to decline unless he has a reason not to... the latter school reaches a lot of 2N down 1.. both break even in terms of reaching or missing good/bad games.

 

Obviously there is more to gain at imps by responding with josh's hand.. but it is (to me) a clear pass even red at imps.

 

BTW, I really, really don't like the idea of ever downgrading an 18 count into a 15-17 range. If it happened, and we missed game because partner passed a flat soft 7 or 8 count, I know where I would assign the blame.

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Obviously there is more to gain at imps by responding with josh's hand.. but it is (to me) a clear pass even red at imps.

Well this is the crux. Is this hand obviously better than the original one?

1. the op said mps

2. yes, the second hand is 'obviously' better than the 1st

3. They are both, for me, clear passes even red at imps

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Obviously there is more to gain at imps by responding with josh's hand.. but it is (to me) a clear pass even red at imps.

Well this is the crux. Is this hand obviously better than the original one?

I'd say the original hand is the better one.

 

QJ9x T8xx beats QJxx Jxxx IMO.

 

I'd pass both hands, normally. But I can see myself inviting with the OP hand - if I need a swing.

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Gwynn asked me to do a double dummy simulation. We used the following hand:

 

A73

QJ92

10964

72

 

Notice that the diamond 8 has become a 9, I blame Csaba.

 

For partner I didn't allow 18-counts, we did allow 5-card majors (15-17) and 6-card minors (14-16) but only when the suit has at most two of the top 5 cards. 5422 shape is allowed when the 5-card suit is a minor and the 4-card suit is not clubs. We generated 100 deals.

 

The strategy was as follows: pass 2H or 2S. Over 2D bid 2NT. Partner will expect the invitation with 16- and 17-counts, but not with a 4333 16-count.

 

These were the results, assuming that the rest of the field plays 1NT:

 

2H giving a bottom: 2 times.

2H giving a top: 20 times.

 

2S giving a bottom: 16 times.

2S giving a top: 14 times.

 

2NT giving a bottom: 16 times.

2NT giving a draw: 14 times.

 

3NT giving a bottom: 9 times.

3NT giving a top: 9 times.

 

The total is 43 wins, 43 losses and 14 draws. Whether this double dummy simulation is useful or not I'll leave to you. I did notice how often 2H does well when partner has 3 hearts, maybe bidding 2H over 2D and pulling to 2NT if partner then bids 2S would improve the results.

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It occurred to Roger and me that the 22 hands where partner responded 2H was a little low. I ran 200 more hands and on those hnds, partner responds 2H 55 times. So indeed it seems that 22 was quite low but it seems that was just a coincidence, not because I used incorrect specifications.

 

It also seems that partner bidding game 18 out of 48 times is on the low side.

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