A routine MP hand ?

[sathyab]

It feels like you've been defending all day in the Burlingame regional over the weekend in the Stratified Pairs event. The randomness of the field is about what you'd expect, but it feels worse when you have had as little control over the game as you've had due to paucity of cards. But you do get to play a hand toward the end of the second session.

 

[hv=d=w&v=b&n=sj5hkt873dqtc8543&s=saq87ha65dj6caj96]133|200|Scoring: MP

(p) - p

(p)- 1NT

(p)- 2♦

(p) - 2♥

all pass[/hv]

 

♣T is led, RHO playing the ♣Q. It looks like a trump-pulling-spade-finessing hand for +110 or +140 for surely they'll take their ♦ tricks when they get in.

[kenrexford]

Three lines come to mind.

 

I could play heart Ace-Heart King, spade Jack. That gains when LHO has 10-9 doubleton of spades, allowing me to pitch two diamonds, and avoids an unnecessary loss when LHO has a stiff club.

 

I could play heart Ace and then heart to the Jack, which safety plays when LHO has QJxx in hearts. But, this riskslosing an unnecessary club finesse when hearts split 3-2 and LHO has the third heart.

 

I could play heart to the King, spade Jack. If the finesse works, I can then ruff out the third spade before returning to my heart Ace to cash the fourth spade. That line allows me to gain when LHO has 109x in spades but risks a really bad problem in clubs, with crossing back possible in diamonds for perhaps a few club ruffs.

 

Not sure what is best...

[Hanoi5]

Yeah it looks like that. The lead seems to be a sing or doub so I better play ♥AK before turning to spades. What are you suggesting? Small diamond to the Q before playing trumps? a safety in trumps? I wouldn't think too much of this hand...

[Apollo81]

I'm tempted to play a heart to the K on trick 2 and lead the ♠J. If this is covered then I could win and cash ♠Q, looking for a T or 9. If one appears I could ruff a spade, then draw 2 rounds of trumps ending in my hand. Hopefully I can pitch a diamond on my last spade.

 

If the ♠J is not covered, I'd overtake with the ♠A, as I think it's virtually 100% at this point that the ♠K is offside. Then I'd proceed with the trump drawing.

 

However, this line gives up on 4-1 trumps with a singleton honor offside and runs mild risks when spades aren't 4-3. I think at the table I would stick to the trump-drawing line, leading the ♦T on trick 4. Maybe LHO wins and plays a spade away from the ♠K.

[Fluffy]

We have won a tempo and maybe a trick on first trick, do not waste it. ♥A+♥K

[gnasher]

West probably doesn't have ♦AK, because he would have led one. East, who passed in third seat and is known to have ♣KQ, is therefore unlikely to have ♠K. East also can't have ♦AK.

 

♣10 is likely to be a singleton - even with Kxxx Qxx Axxx 10x I don't think a club lead is terribly attractive.

 

If West were x-2-x-1 we would probably have heard from him, so if we lose a club ruff it's probably with a trump trick. It's therefore fairly safe to delay drawing trumps.

 

Some possibilities:

- Lead a spade towards dummy. LHO may duck.

- Lead a diamond towards dummy. LHO may hop up and switch to a spade.

 

I think I prefer the second possibility. Have I talked myself into a(nother) bottom?

[sathyab]

West probably doesn't have ♦AK, because he would have led one.  East, who passed in third seat and is known to have ♣KQ, is therefore unlikely to have ♠K.  East also can't have ♦AK.

 

♣10 is likely to be a singleton - even with Kxxx Qxx Axxx 10x I don't think a club lead is terribly attractive.

 

If West were x-2-x-1 we would probably have heard from him, so if we lose a club ruff it's probably with a trump trick.  It's therefore fairly safe to delay drawing trumps.

 

Some possibilities:

- Lead a spade towards dummy.  LHO may duck.

- Lead a diamond towards dummy.  LHO may hop up and switch to a spade.

 

I think I prefer the second possibility.  Have I talked myself into a(nother) bottom?

I too concluded for the same reasons, that East most likely doesn't have the ♠K. I drew two rounds ending in hand, both following suit, West producing the ♥Q on the second round. I played a spade toward dummy now, hoping that even if West could go up with the King, he may not know to shift to ♦s, looking at the QT in dummy. He thought for a quite a while before playing low; what are the chances that the declarer would "give up" on the Spade finesse with AQ in his hand ? The entire hand:

 

[hv=d=w&v=b&n=sj5hkt873dqtc8543&w=skt642hq4da9532ct&e=s93hj92dk874ckq72&s=saq87ha65dj6caj96]399|300|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

Yes, the bidding was less than enterprising on this hand, I'm pretty sure most pairs would come in with 2-suiter bid of some sort with either DONT or Capelletti. If he had a 2-4-6-1 hand with King empty sixth of Diamonds, he may not have opened a WK2 in first chair and later have had systemic trouble in intervening with a 4-6 hand. With that hand he might have more trouble going up with the ♠K.

[gnasher]

I drew two rounds ending in hand, both following suit, West producing the ♥Q on the second round. I played a spade toward dummy now, hoping that even if West could go up with the King, he may not know to shift to ♦s, looking at the QT in dummy. He thought for a quite a while before playing low; what are the chances that the declarer would "give up" on the Spade finesse with AQ in his hand ?

Serves them right for not playing suit preference signals in the trump suit.

[sathyab]

I drew two rounds ending in hand, both following suit, West producing the ♥Q on the second round. I played a spade toward dummy now, hoping that even if West could go up with the King, he may not know to shift to  ♦s, looking at the QT in dummy. He thought for a quite a while before playing low; what are the chances that the declarer would "give up" on the Spade finesse with AQ in his hand ?

Serves them right for not playing suit preference signals in the trump suit.

If you're convinced that West can't have x-2-x-1 hand by his failure to bid, then the point you made that even if they get a ruff, it'll probably at the expense of a natural trump trick, is valid. To make sure there're no trump suit preferences, you need to lead a spade toward dummy at T2.