expert bridge inaugural post

[babalu1997]

I tried to post there, but the moderator moved it :)

 

why is it that the majors mostly break 3-3 in moysian fit hands? :D

[Lobowolf]

It's a self-selecting sample illusion...you're more likely to hear about the ones that work, and the ones where the trump are 3-3 are more likely to work.

 

Sounded good, anyway.

[kenberg]

I don't know that it is true that they do but perhaps you would accept a slight restating?

 

Namely:

When playing a Moysian, the opposing cards break3-3 more often than probability says they should.

 

 

Here would be a possible explanation: You reach 2H in a Moysian. If they do not split 3-3, the guy with short hearts is a little more likely to have five spades to compete with, and if he doesn't he may make a TO double. His partner, over the TO double, holding four hearts and not knowing of the Moysian, figures it's not good enough for a pass and bids something. Thus, the non-playable Moysian is a little less often played. No one notices the Moysians that are not played.

 

If the claim is true, and if this explanation is correct, (two very big ifs) I would expect the deviation from the probability tables to be more pronounced with hearts than with spades.

 

My guess would be that the statement simply isn't true.