vuroth Posted February 12, 2009 Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 [hv=d=n&v=n&n=skt74hkj95d76cjt8&s=saq3haq8dj8432ca9]133|200|Scoring: MP1NT 2C2D 2NT3NT Ten of diamonds led to the King. King of clubs returned.[/hv] SOUTH is declarer. Curious what the best way forward is. I suspect you'll convict me, but I'll let you know either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keylime Posted February 12, 2009 Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 You have eight tricks developed, and the fact that they lead diamonds may allow you to be able to have the timing needed to get that ninth tricks. My gut reaction is to return a club to the J and let them untangle things. The question is, where's the diamond honors - the lead of the T, can be from H-T-x, T-9-x, T-8-x, top of nothing, or more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orlam Posted February 12, 2009 Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 Cashing ♠QA is obvious, you might have 9 tricks off the top and it doesn't cost. Then if the ♠J didn't drop, it seems playing a club is best, only losing if LHO started with AQT9 of diamonds exactly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wackojack Posted February 12, 2009 Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 This is MP. It looks like the odds of the lead being from AQ109 precisely to be less than the spade Q coming down. So play as suggested by Orlam. If all goes well you could make an overtrick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted February 12, 2009 Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 Look at it from your RHO's point of view.You are 100% certain what his diamond holding is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted February 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 Look at it from your RHO's point of view.You are 100% certain what his diamond holding is. I am? Ok, here goes. LHO has the 9.RHO had the KingRHO did not have the Q, or he would have played it.LHO did not have the A, or he would not have underled it? So LHO started wtih AK8. How did I do? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerclee Posted February 12, 2009 Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 Warren, why didn't RHO play back another diamond? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtfanclub Posted February 12, 2009 Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 Look at it from your RHO's point of view.You are 100% certain what his diamond holding is. I am? Ok, here goes. LHO has the 9.RHO had the KingRHO did not have the Q, or he would have played it.LHO did not have the A, or he would not have underled it? So LHO started wtih AK8. How did I do? You can see the 8. LHO must have the Q, T, and 9, right? But he wouldn't lead diamonds if that's all he had. So it must be one of: QT95 AKAQT9 K5AQT95 K If it was the middle one, surely RHO would return a diamond. So RHO must have either AK or K stiff. Edit: I keep thinking about the lead back of the king of clubs. Is he trying to establish an entry to partner? It is possible that his partner has QT9xxx so an entry would do the trick, but in that case if he has AK he should lead the second diamond before establishing an entry. That would mean the K♣ only makes sense as an entry maker if he has the stiff king of diamonds. The other possibility is that he's given up on the set and working on making sure they get 3 tricks. Give him, say... JxxxxxAKKQxxx Now you could have the other red queen (his partner only has 2 points): AQ3AT8QJ432A9 and have 4 spades, 4 hearts, 2 diamonds, and a club if he cashed the second diamond. Playing the king of clubs before cashing the second diamond holds it to 10 tricks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted February 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 Warren, why didn't RHO play back another diamond? With K♦, and KQ♣ and some club length (unless clubs are 4/4, LHO is a great bet to have at least 5 from the lead), all you need to do is find partner with the Ax(x) of clubs and the contract is down. If the K♦ is single, I'm ok with that. IF RHO started with the AK doubleton, he's cash the ace. If he started with the K8 doubleton, then I'm not sure whether club or diamond is better at trick 2. But do you really lead the T from AQT9?? If RHO started with AK8 (only three card holding I can see), hmm.. A♦ then 8♦ trusts partner, I guess. (although establishing clubs might be right too?) If RHO stared with AKQ8 (I considered T9 doubleton on my left at the table, but looking at what that leaves RHO that seems strange).... If RHO started with AKQ98, then a diamond comes back. At the table, I thought a fair bit about what LHO could hold. Picturing RHO's possible holdings leads me to some different conclusions. ... I had a hard enough time puzzling out the T♦ lead. Looking at possible RHO holdings isn't making opponents play a whole lot clearer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted February 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 Only just occurred to me, but if RHO holds AK♦ doubleton, doesn't he double 2♣? Sorry, maybe I'm going off on tangents now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted February 13, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 [hv=d=n&v=n&n=skt74hkj95d76cjt8&w=sj96ht63daqt9c543&e=s852h742dk5ckq762&s=saq3haq8dj8432ca9]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] West North East South - Pass Pass 1NT Pass 2♣ Pass 2♦ Pass 2NT Pass 3NT Pass Pass Pass I put up the ace, and returned a club. Diamonds were AQT9 on my left, and I was down. Matchpoint score: 0% Most people did NOT get a diamond lead, which I think made playing for 3/3 spades pretty easy. One other table did get a diamond lead (9 I think), and still played for the spade split. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old York Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Has anyone ever worked out the odds of ♠J dropping in 3 rounds in this situation? I would think it would be quite high. The standard lead from ♦AQT9 is the Ten, but many would be afraid of giving away an overtrick at matchpoints, and choose a safer lead. Just think yourself very unlucky and move on to the next hand, East's play was illogical and fooled everyone. You would not duck ♦Ace if you were wide open in Clubs, and even so, East should switch to a LOW club if he expected West to have ♣Ax :( Tony Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Oh dear, now I've seen RHO's hand, all I can say is your opponents have fooled me too... On this start to the defence I would be 100% certain that the king of diamonds is singleton on my right. The 10 of diamonds is the normal lead from honour holdings starting AQ109, A109, Q109 or 1098/1097. Looking at two low diamonds in dummy, how does your RHO know that your hand isn't something like AQxAQxJxxxAxx Or QxxAQxAJxA9xx?(at trick 1 you have to guess whether to take or duck the diamond, depending on who has the ace of spades) Most of the sensible world will have played a diamond back from the East hand looking at Kx, in case they were cashing five diamond tricks, so you know that's not his holding. That being said, there are two reasons why you can make the contract anyway. i) The king of clubs switch is almost certainly wrong whatever RHO's diamond holding, looking at J108 in dummy. If he's trying to cash the club suit, he should switch to a low one from KQxxx. That tells you he may not be the best player in the world. ii) If RHO does have singleton king of diamonds, it doesn't hurt to cash three rounds of spades first, before playing a club, because they will never be able to take more than four tricks when they get in. (matchpoints is a different matter. I'd play a club back at once, because I may be able to generate a 10th trick) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Has anyone ever worked out the odds of ♠J dropping in 3 rounds in this situation? I would think it would be quite high. Slightly better than 50% as the majority of the other spades are more likely to be in the 13 slots without the jack than in the 12 slots with the jack. Of course you have the added chance that RHO shows out on the second round so you can finesse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Little Kid Posted February 15, 2009 Report Share Posted February 15, 2009 I think as mentioned previously, playing Q then A spades doesn't do any harm. You might even get a count signal from your opponents which could help in sorting out the spade situation before you take any further action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts