3730 wrong again?

[jtfanclub]

Great, the questions then are:

 

On how many hands does opening 3♥ prevent us from arriving to 4♥?

On how many hands will the opponents buy the contract and be set because I was able to ruff a club? (either because I bid 5♣ or because I lightner-doubled their contract)

 

I think 3♥ gives a lot more room to do many things which might be impossible to do if we open 4♥.

 

I also think that what makes this hand a better 3♥ opening than 4♥ opening is the fact that my RHO has already passed, for if I was the dealer I agree that 4♥ stands out as the best opening bid.

If you're worried about room and strain, why not open 1♥? The only real advantage of 3♥ is that it shuts the opponents out of the bidding, and if you're not worried about that, why not just start nice and low? Maybe you'll talk them into doubling 4♥.

 

I think this is a 1♥ or a 4♥ hand, but not a 3♥ hand white vs. red. Partner will never guess I have this much playing strength.

[Hanoi5]

I think this is a 1♥ or a 4♥ hand, but not a 3♥ hand white vs. red. Partner will never guess I have this much playing strength.

 

Now that's an exaggeration. If you open 1♥ you'll end up bidding 4♥ over 3NT not knowing if it's right, whereas if partner bids 3NT you should comfortably pass.

 

Recently I held this hand:

 

♠Kxx

♥AQJTxxx

♦Void

♣xxx

 

And, white vs red, I was dealer and opened 3♥. Now that was a mistake. Being the dealer I should have opened 4♥ as they did at the other table. But having heard RHO pass as dealer 3♥ might do better (in this as well as in this topic's hand).

[hotShot]

Great, the questions then are:

 

On how many hands does opening 3♥ prevent us from arriving to 4♥?

Well why don't you suggest what North (edit: West is wrong) needs (HCP and suit length please) to bid:

3♠

3NT

4♣

4♦

4♥

4♠

I think these are all the relevant bids West can make.

 

Shall I assume that West passes 3♠, 3NT, 4♦, 4♠ and 4♥ and correct 4♣ to 4♥. If you suggest another sequence please specify.

 

I will modify the the TCL-file to count how often you would reach the contracts under the given conditions.

 

Including opps action would be to complicated.

[Hanoi5]

West? Isn't West my LHO?

 

What I think is important to know is:

 

Hands where my RHO bids spades or diamonds over 3H and not over 4H, and what is the outcome of them playing.

Hands where my partner bids 3NT, kinda hard to choose, but probably hands where my partner holds a heart connection (at least two hearts), has at least one Ace and the club stopper is positional (i.e. depends on the contract being played by my partner) or hands where he has 7 top-tricks, maybe one of those from the lead.

Hands where my partner doesn't have a 'proper' heart fit (i.e. has only one small heart) but holds 6 or more 'good' spades or diamonds.

Hands where my partner will bid 4♥.

Hands where my partner will pass 3♥.

 

I don't know what exactly say on the last 2.

 

One last comment, though. I had forgotten about a very important issue which is style. This hand is not very common as it is a VERY fine pre-emptive; and so if my partner expects me to have:

 

♠x

♥KJTxxxx

♦QTx

♣xx

 

Then it is clearly better to open 4♥ with the hand we've been discussing. If my pre-empts are on the contrary usually good, then 3♥ is better. Would you buy it now?

[hotShot]

You' re right of cause it's North!

[jdonn]

Partner will never guess I have this much playing strength.

Agree with jtfanclub. (he was refering to if we open 3♥).

[mikestar]

Assuming a modern light but not insane preempting style, 4♥ is a no brainer at these colors. This is an upper end 3♥ bid as dealer at equal vulnerability. Second position is a minus value, the hand's suit quality and total lack of side cards are a plus value which cancel. So 4♥ at favorable.

[mikestar]

Great, the questions then are:

 

On how many hands does opening 3♥ prevent us from arriving to 4♥?

On how many hands will the opponents buy the contract and be set because I was able to ruff a club? (either because I bid 5♣ or because I lightner-doubled their contract)

 

I think 3♥ gives a lot more room to do many things which might be impossible to do if we open 4♥.

 

I also think that what makes this hand a better 3♥ opening than 4♥ opening is the fact that my RHO has already passed, for if I was the dealer I agree that 4♥ stands out as the best opening bid.

Yes, you will defeat 4♠ or 5♦ once and a while on a ♣ ruff. What are your prospects against 5♣? How about 6♣? How about 7♣ if either opponent is void in ♥?

 

And as for defending 4♠ or 5♦, isn't that more likely to happen if you open 4♥? At least some of the time they will stop in 3♠ or 4♦ if you let them.

[jillybean]

Here's another, (Im still having trouble with these)

[hv=d=e&v=e&s=sxxhaxxxxxdckqxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

(P) ?[/hv]

 

Compared with the first hand:

[hv=d=e&v=e&s=sxxhaxxxxxdckqxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

(P) ?[/hv]

[the hog]

Notplaying 2 suited openings, which I guess you aren't, I would pass this hand without a qualm.

[jillybean]

Notplaying 2 suited openings, which I guess you aren't, I would pass this hand without a qualm.

Well, I am but my partners dont know it. :) (joke)

[655321]

Here's another,  (Im still having trouble with these)

Dealer: East Vul: E/W Scoring: IMP

♠ xx ♥ Axxxxx ♦ [space] ♣ KQxxx

(P) ?

Should this be a new thread?

 

Never mind, I would open this hand 1♥ without a qualm.

 

Certainly there are 6-5 hands that I would open 4♥ when w/r. But you would want some stuffing in the heart suit to do this.

 

Here we have Axxxxx, not a suit you really want to preempt with. We have a nice hand with good playing strength, and not really suitable for a preempt. So I would be happy to open it 1♥ in spite of the 9HCP.

[the hog]

Here's another,  (Im still having trouble with these)

<!-- ONEHAND begin --><table border='1'> <tr> <td> <table> <tr> <td> Dealer: </td> <td> East </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Vul: </td> <td> E/W </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Scoring: </td> <td> IMP </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td> <table> <tr> <th> <span class='spades'> ♠ </span> </th> <td> xx </td> </tr> <tr> <th> <span class='hearts'> ♥ </span> </th> <td> Axxxxx </td> </tr> <tr> <th> <span class='diamonds'> ♦ </span> </th> <td>  </td> </tr> <tr> <th> <span class='clubs'> ♣ </span> </th> <td> KQxxx </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td> (P) ? </td> </tr> </table><!-- ONEHAND end -->

Should this be a new thread?

 

Never mind, I would open this hand 1♥ without a qualm.

 

Certainly there are 6-5 hands that I would open 4♥ when w/r. But you would want some stuffing in the heart suit to do this.

 

Here we have Axxxxx, not a suit you really want to preempt with. We have a nice hand with good playing strength, and not really suitable for a preempt. So I would be happy to open it 1♥ in spite of the 9HCP.

Without a qualm? Jilly plays 2/1 I think, so you may well find yourself is a poor game contract if partner assumes you have an opening.

[neilkaz]

Here's another,  (Im still having trouble with these)

Dealer: East Vul: E/W Scoring: IMP

♠ xx ♥ Axxxxx ♦ [space] ♣ KQxxx

(P) ?

 

Compared with the first hand:

Dealer: East Vul: E/W Scoring: IMP

♠ xxx ♥ AKJxxxx ♦ xxx ♣ [space]

(P) ?

OK with the 65 hand, I open it 1♥ and take my chances in the auction now. I have no rebidding issues and want to get into the auction now rather than at a high level later. The ♥ suit is not good enough to preempt 4♥ and I am concerned about missing a ♣ game or even slam.

 

Yes, I am very aware that PD may not fit and we get to a bad game w/ 2/1. That's life and I don't like opening 9 pt hands playing 2/1 very often, but this one has 29 ZARs and I am opening it. This is a really good 9 pt hand being 65 with all 9 HCP in the long suits.

 

With the much analysed ♥ hand, where the consensus and sim both point to 4♥ what did you open ?

 

.. neilkaz ..

[hotShot]

Kathryn, if you are familiar with the (LTC), you can use it as a guideline.

 

An average opening has 7 loser.

 

[hv=d=e&v=e&s=sxxxhakjxxxxdxxxc]133|100|Scoring: IMP

(P) ?[/hv]

This hand has 7 Loser and is singlesuited. The only reasonable contracts are in ♥,

It's not very likely to find your partner with a void in your suit, so you have a fit most of the time. This qualifies for an unilateral decision, your best bid is 4♥, it's both constructive and preemptive.

 

[hv=d=e&v=e&s=sxxxhakjxxxxdxxxc]133|100|Scoring: IMP

(P) ?[/hv]

This hand has only 5 loser, much better than an average opening and 2-suited.

With a fit you are close to the slam zone. You can bid you ♣ at the 5 level if necessary (you are nonvul!), so you don't need to worry much about opps preemptive bidding. You need partners input to get to the right contract, so you have to show both of your suits and leave enough bidding space for partner to make a good decision.

It's very likely that partner has 2-3 of the missing 7♥ or 3 of the missing 8♣.

So open 1♥ ans see what happens next.

[Hanoi5]

I also open 1♥ on the second hand.

[hotShot]

Hands where my partner will bid 4♥.

Hands where my partner will pass 3♥.

Just to show the effect of opening 3♥, I assumed that north would bid 4♥ with 12+HCP and at least one ♥ or would bid 3♠ with 12+HCP, 5+♠ and less than 2 ♥. (I don't think that this is a clever agreement, I selected 12 HCP because 12 HCP is half of the average HCP available for West and North.)

 

In this simulation 4♥ made 474 times and failed to make 526 times.

Using the given agreement one would reach 4♥ 477 times, unfortunately only 353 make and 124 fail. You miss 121 games and 124 you overbid although you started in 3♥.

 

Of the 185 times 3♠ would make, only 56 would be found and another 4 would be bid and go down. This is not a good quota since only 37 times 4♥ would not make.