3730 wrong again?

[jillybean]

[hv=d=e&v=e&s=sxxxhakjxxxxdxxxc]133|100|Scoring: IMP

(P) ?[/hv]

 

Please post the reason for your choice too, thanks.

[Walddk]

Easy 4♥ for me. 3♥ is not enough at these colours although it may be the textbook bid.

 

Roland

[dicklont]

4♥

Thanks to the renonce it's not so dangerous and I don't need much make it.

[Echognome]

Seems a pretty clear 4♥ bid to me as well.

[andy_h]

4H. Love my shape, my suit and the vulnerability.

[neilkaz]

2nd seat is the worst seat to preemptively open in so even at these colors this isn't a WTP 4♥ bid for me since my hand may be a fine dummy in a pointed suit slam and it seems a but easier for PD to get there or to 4♠ if it somehow plays better than 4♥ if we just start with 3♥.

 

That being said, this does look like a 4♥ opener at these colors so I wouldn't criticize either option.

 

.. neilkaz ..

[MickyB]

Our spade length is a negative factor - if we were 0733 then 4♥ would be auto. As it is...I think I'd make do with three.

[655321]

Wow. Very surprised to see votes for anything other than 4♥. At this vulnerability you won't get hurt too badly. Important to put the pressure on when you can.

 

If you open 3♥, partner will never play you for this much - the good hearts and the void. Also 3♥ leaves 3NT on the menu for the opponents - and with no outside entries I expect them to make 3NT most of the time they bid it.

 

One other point (my opinion only, I don't expect everyone to agree) is the second seat thing. Yes, second seat is worse than first seat, but to me this is a very minor factor, which might affect borderline hands, but will never change my bid on any normal preempt. Vulnerability (ours and theirs) is the main factor to me, not position.

[orlam]

Please delete my vote, I voted for 3♥ thinking I was red vs white in first seat.

[P_Marlowe]

4H.

 

It looks like a preempt, so open with a preempt.

In the end it is a matter of partnership agreement, what to

open 3H or 4H.

 

A guide line, which may be helpful is the so called 2-3 rule

for preempt:

Being red you promise to go down at most -2, being green

you promise to go down at most -3.

 

The hand will usually 6 1/2 tricks with hearts as trumps,

so the rule wont give you a clear answer, but the rule is

conservative, i.e. if you follow the rule, you should go with

with the more agressive option in case of doubt.

 

There is also a more agressive rule, the rule of 2-3-4,

-2 being red vs. green, -3 at equal vul., -4 being green vs. red.

Give the agressiveness off the rule, if you follow the rule, you

should in case of doubt opt for the lower preempt.

This rule would tell you straight to open 4H.

 

Which rule you adopt is open for partnership discussion, but

I would recommend, that you add this rule to your agreement

set, it will help to streamline your preempts, which will also

help partner to get it right, if he is faced with a tough decision:

to go or not to go.

 

Because if you play a conservative style, he has to raise 3H to 4H

with a lot more hands, and he needs help in deciding, where the

cut of point is.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

 

PS: Another point to take into consideration is, the scoring format,

at MP, it may make sense, at least in theory, to go the more

conservative route, but I doubt that it really matters.

[the hog]

4H. Should be unanimous.

[hotShot]

If you play in spades and your partner has only 0 or 1 (or even 2) ♥ there's a big risk that he can't develop and reach the high ♥ at the table after removing trumps.

 

This hand is best in a ♥ contract. I doubt that you have an agreed followup's over 3♥ that will allow you to get to 4♥, if partner has the right cards. Your partner knows that you could be much weaker than that for a 3♥ opening, so he won't make a move even with the right cards. ♥xx is enough to give you a good chance to make 7♥ tricks and if partner does not hold additional tricks opps missed game or more.

[effervesce]

I'm calling only 3♥. If I was in 1st or 3rd seat at these colors I'd bid 4♥ - however, in 2nd seat I'd rather not preempt partner as much-he should know I usually have very constructive preempts in 2nd seat.

 

Like others have mentioned, the 3730 shape rather than 0733 shape tilts it into bidding only 3♥ for me - it makes it that much less likely they can make 4♠, so the usual preempt benefits of trying to preempt them bidding game is less likely on this particular hand.

[Finch]

I voted 3H when I thought I was second at red.

Second at green I would open 4H.

[shintaro]

B)

 

If you are going to pre-empt then I say do it

 

4♥

 

Let the opps study

 

:)

[Hanoi5]

I have too many spades as someone else mentioned. Bidding could go:

 

P-3♥-P-3♠

 

And I'll support spades. Or,

 

P-3♥-P-3NT

 

And I'll pass. Or,

 

P-3♥-3♠-4♥

4♠-5♣!

 

So 3♥ for me.

[rogerclee]

I have too many spades as someone else mentioned. Bidding could go:

 

P-3♥-P-3♠

 

And I'll support spades. Or,

 

P-3♥-P-3NT

 

And I'll pass. Or,

 

P-3♥-3♠-4♥

4♠-5♣!

 

So 3♥ for me.

I would think about the frequency of these things happening versus the frequency of just missing 4♥ when it's cold or failing to put enough pressure on the opponents.

[hotShot]

It's hard to imagine a hand where 3NT can be made and 4♥ is not as good as 3NT or better. You need stopper in 3 suits and enough ♥2+ (with the Q will be better) to reach the ♥.

 

Hands that don't make 4♥ but make 4♠ are easier to contruct, 3♦ looser and ♥Qxx offside, but if opps fail to lead ♦, you could get rid of a ♦ of a high ♣.

So this will be close.

 

And why should I allow opps to enter the auction (e.g with 3♠), when I have a good chance (~70% (40,7% ♥2-2 and half[1] of 59,3% 3-1 or 4-o onside)) to make 4♥ if partner holds something like:

[hv=d=e&v=e&s=saxhxxdqjxcxxxxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

[1] If my LHO has a long suit to bid, the odds that RHO has more of the ♥'s increase, so that onside is more likely than 50%.

[Walddk]

I have too many spades as someone else mentioned. Bidding could go:

 

P-3♥-P-3♠

 

And I'll support spades.

I can envisage the danger of playing on 5-3 in spades: the hearts are dead, and then it takes a lot of strength in partner's hand to make a high spade contract. In hearts, however, your hand is alive regardless of the 'support' you find.

 

Roland

[Hanoi5]

Anyone care to make a simulation? I ran one where the opponent who had passed had 0-11 HCP and not 6 or seven cards headed by at least two honors in the non-heart suits. It turned out that in at least 80 of those hands the contract was ours, mostly in hearts but also in NT or spades. Opponents only had the chance to make something (game) in around 30% of the hands and mostly in clubs.

 

Edited: I meant that the passing opponent had said hand, not the one who hadn't passed.

[hotShot]

Anyone care to make a simulation? I ran one where the opponent who hadn't pass had 0-11 HCP and not 6 or seven cards headed by at least two honors in the non-heart suits. It turned out that in at least 80 of those hands the contract was ours, mostly in hearts but also in NT or spades. Opponents only had the chance to make something (game) in around 30% of the hands and mostly in clubs.

Why do you restrict the "opponent who hadn't pass"?

 

It would make sense to restrict the opponent who had passed to that. It that case, the remaining 2 player share 21-32 HCP, with an average of about 23.

On average our side should have 19,5 HCP while opps have 20,5 HCP.

On average our partner will be to weak to make any move, While 10 tricks in ♥ will often be available.

[skjaeran]

Obvious 4♥ for me. I might open 4♥ with 4720 too, but that wouldn't be automatic.

[jdonn]

The spade length is a red herring. This hand has way too much playing strength for 3♥ at this vul. I would say 4♥ is trivial for any expert.

[hotShot]

I simulated 1000 deals with this south cards and assuming that pass in first seat has less than 12 points and no 6+ card suit.

 

3+ NT makes: 228

4H makes: 480

3NT makes 4H fails: 31

3H makes: 231

2H makes: 147

less than 2H: 142

3+S makes: 198

3+S makes 4H fails: 35

 

We are novul@imps so 48% is good enough, bidding 4♥. We won't be more than 1 down in 71% and not more than 2 in 85%

There are only 31 deals where 3NT is better than 4♥, this is the price to keep opps out of the bidding. Most of the times 3+♠ can be made, you can also make 4♥.

[Hanoi5]

Great, the questions then are:

 

On how many hands does opening 3♥ prevent us from arriving to 4♥?

On how many hands will the opponents buy the contract and be set because I was able to ruff a club? (either because I bid 5♣ or because I lightner-doubled their contract)

 

I think 3♥ gives a lot more room to do many things which might be impossible to do if we open 4♥.

 

I also think that what makes this hand a better 3♥ opening than 4♥ opening is the fact that my RHO has already passed, for if I was the dealer I agree that 4♥ stands out as the best opening bid.