Finch Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 (edited) This is given for amusement's sake only. If there is a moral, it is not to play against bad teams if you can avoid it, it gets you into bad habits. You hold ♠ AKQxx♥ AK♦ AJ10xx♣ Q Your partner opens 1♦, first seat at game all, promising 4+ diamonds in a strong NT/5-card majors/short club context. The auction progresses, and you find out that partner has: 12-14 balanced (you only open very good balanced 11 counts vul)3 spades4 or 5 diamondsNot a low doubleton heartThe ace of clubsThe king of diamondsDefinitely not the queen of diamondsNot a hand with 5 diamonds super-suitable for slam in diamonds (unsurprisingly!) You now have to select the final contract. You trust your partner's declarer play, so there is no worry about who is playing which denomination. You are playing very weak opposition. What do you bid? (this is IMPs) Edited January 28, 2009 by FrancesHinden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 7♦. On average it will have around 65% legitimate chances, and opponents are not missing slam on this board (maybe paly in spades though). If you will finese because no lead in trumps that's another history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 mps, 7N (especially as I asume partner is playing it and if he is missing the club K, he has the AJ). Decent team 7♦ Much stronger team: good case for 6♦, hoping grand fails Much weaker team: again, good case for 6♦, trying this time to avoid big swing, thinking that they will miss the grand or play the wrong one (7N)... or that 7♦ fails..but I'd still bid 7♦ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtvesuvius Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 In theory I agree with Mike, but I bid 6♦ because since this is posted, ♦ are 4-0 :). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerclee Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 7n, don't care who my opponents are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 I think I overstimated legitimate chances of winning, they should be around 60% or so. Still bid 7♦ because I cannot imagine my opponnets stopping below 6, and hardly below 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bid_em_up Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 Against strong opposition, I would bid 7D. Versus weak opponents, I would consider stopping in 6D, as they may well not even be in game at the other table. :) (but will probably end up bidding 7D anyway). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichMor Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 7NT Pard has♠)xxx♥)Qxx♦)Kxxx♣)AKx and Diamonds are 4-0 and pard misguesses which opp has 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kfay Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 At IMPs I'd MUCH rather be playing 7♦ than 7N, now I don't have to worry about a 4-1 spade break and can just focus on diamonds? This seems clear to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 At IMPs I'd MUCH rather be playing 7♦ than 7N, now I don't have to worry about a 4-1 spade break and can just focus on diamonds? This seems clear to me. and you might get a safe trump lead :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y66 Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 6D seems obvious, esp. against a team that might play in the wrong slam. So, 7D. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanoi5 Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 7NT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 7♦ at imps for sure. Don't worry about a bad spade break, and pick up diamonds much more often since you will get a trump lead. I'd probably even bid 7♦ at matchpoints, I can't imagine scoring too badly for making a grand off an important card. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanoi5 Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 When TC specifies that pd doesn't have the trump Q it means (I think) that you asked for it in the bidding. I don't think we're getting a trump lead unless they're REALLY bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 When TC specifies that pd doesn't have the trump Q it means (I think) that you asked for it in the bidding. I don't think we're getting a trump lead unless they're REALLY bad. Well a lot about the auction matters. Did we ask for the trump queen and partner deny it, or were we in some sort of relay situation where partner was merely answering and would pass on the information automatically? If we bid keycard and partner responded 5♥ then obviously the leader doesn't know whether or not we cared about the diamond queen. What does partner know about our hand? For example if partner knows our shape then he can probably pull 7♦ to 7NT if he holds the jack of spades, knowing that we must have AKQxx of spades to bid any grand. That of course would make bidding 7♦ much more attractive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanoi5 Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 You've convinced me of 7♦. But if I get a spade lead ruffed on the first trick I'm blaming you, ok? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 Ok you have a deal. And if I do badly on my homework tonight I'm blaming you, just because it feels fair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotShot Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 Weak opponents will not bid a grand here, probably not even a slam.The ♦Q is most likely with the long cards in a 3-1 or 4-0 split. I would hate to lose 7♠ because one opp can ruff ♦, and I would hate to lose 7♦ or 7NT to an unfortunate ♦ split or a ♠ ruff, when opps stopped in 5♦ or 4♠.So I'll stop in 6♦. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keylime Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 6♦, by a country mile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOL Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 At IMPs I'd MUCH rather be playing 7♦ than 7N, now I don't have to worry about a 4-1 spade break and can just focus on diamonds? 7♦ at imps for sure. Don't worry about a bad spade break, LOL Partner has the AK of clubs unless he has J QJ K AJ so what is all this paranoid talk about 41 spades? Even if partner has AK tight of clubs he will either have the HQ or the SJ in which case we still have no spade losers. 7N is the bid that caters to a bad spade split since they cant get a ruff on opening lead. Not just that but sometimes you won't even have to guess diamonds since you will often have thirteen tricks outside of diamonds. In 7N you get to cash side winners and get a count before guessing diamonds. This is a big edge In 7N we often just have 13 tricks without guessing diamonds. The point that partner might "correct" 7D to 7N seems to defeat the point of the problem, Frances specifically told us we have to place the contract. The only legitimate point in favor of bidding 7D is that they might lead a diamond from xx so that increases our chances of guessing diamonds, but given that we have 13 tricks so often in 7N without the diamond suit, and that they might lead a diamond against 7N trying to be passive anyways, I don't see how we can not bid 7N. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOL Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 Weak opponents will not bid a grand here, probably not even a slam. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOL Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 6♦ LOL WTF is wrong with you people? Are you constructing actual hands for partner? If partner has 5 diamonds then 7 is going to be like 90 % (possibly 100 %), and if partner has 4 diamonds then picking up diamonds at the very least is going to be 55 % (and in reality quite a bit higher since you are going to be able to get at least a partial count which will probably make you about 65 % at least) plus the chances that partner has Jxx Qxx Kxxx AKx in which case 7 is almost 100 %, or the chances that he has xxx Qxx Kxxx AKx in which case 7 is about 85 % etc etc. And hey while I'm at it I'll just add in xxx QJxx Kxxx AK and Jxx QJxx Kxxx AK into the mix. Bidding 6 is just mind bogglingly bad. Bidding diamonds is mind bogglingly bad. This is like the bidding equivalent of a double dummy problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OleBerg Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 I stay out of a grand on this one. The cards may be good enough for a grand in themselves, but I wont lose much "Expected IMP gain", by not bidding it. And I see no reason to risk a swing on this board, vs a team I expect to beat comfortably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOL Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 For fun partner's possible hands (3343)xxx Qxx Kxxx AKx 7N needs 32 spades or picking up diamondsxxx QJx Kxxx AKx 7N needs 32 spades or picking up diamondsxxx QJx Kxxx AKJ 7N needs 32 spades or picking up diamondsJxx Qxx Kxxx AKx 7N is coldJxx QJx Kxxx AKx 7N is coldJxx Qxx Kxxx AKJ 7N is coldxxx Jxx Kxxx AKJ 7N needs to pick up diamondsJxx Jxx Kxxx AKx 7N needs to pick up diamonds or H/D sqzJxx Jxx Kxxx AKJ 7N needs to pick up diamonds or H/D sqzJxx xxx Kxxx AKJ 7N needs to pick up diamonds Jxx QJx Kxxx AJx 7N needs to pick up diamonds (3442) xxx Qxxx Kxxx AK 7N needs to pick up diamonds (or 32 spades + H/D squeeze)xxx QJxx Kxxx AK 7N needs 32 spades or picking up diamondsJxx Qxxx Kxxx AK 7N needs to pick up diamonds or heart/diamonds squeezeJxx QJxx Kxxx AK 7N is coldJxx Jxxx Kxxx AK 7N needs to pick up diamonds Jxx QJxx Kxxx AJ 7N needs to pick up diamonds or club finesse or C/D squeeze (3244) xxx Qx Kxxx AKxx 7N needs to pick up diamonds (or spades split and C/D sqz)xxx QJ Kxxx AKxx 7N needs to pick up diamonds (or spades split and C/D sqz)Jxx Qx Kxxx AKxx 7N needs to pick up diamonds (or C/D sqz)Jxx QJ Kxxx AKxx 7N needs to pick up diamonds (or C/D sqz)xxx Qx Kxxx AKJx 7N needs 32 spades or to pick up diamondsxxx QJ Kxxx AKJx 7N needs 32 spades or pick up diamondsJxx Qx Kxxx AKJx 7N is cold Jxx QJ Kxxx AJxx 7N needs to pick up diamonds (3352) xxx Qxx Kxxxx AK 7N is 90 %xxx QJx Kxxxx AK 7N is 90 %Jxx Qxx Kxxxx AK 7N is 90 %Jxx QJx Kxxxx AK 7N is 90 %Jxx Jxx Kxxxx AK 7N is 90 % Jxx QJx Kxxxx AJ 7N is 90 % (3253) xxx Qx Kxxxx AKx 7N is 90 %xxx QJ Kxxxx AKx 7N is 90 %xxx Qx Kxxxx AKJ 7N is 90 %xxx QJ Kxxxx AKJ 7N is 90 %Jxx Qx Kxxxx AKx 7N is 90 %Jxx QJ Kxxxx AKx 7N is 90 %Jxx Qx Kxxxx AKJ 7N is 90 % Notes: 1) I ignore the HT (comes into play when partner has QTxx of hearts and we can make on Jxx of hearts as an extra chance) 2) I ignore the ST completely. Sometimes I say 100 % when it's not 100 % if we have no ST, no S98, no 8 in hand etc, and we misguess diamonds after having a full count etc. Really its 99 % but for simplicity I do this. You may think I am biasing my results this way, but it probably doesn't offset the times where you can pick up stiff J of spades also when partner has Txx. 3) The squeeze chances are not minor. For instance when partner has Jxx Jxx Kxxx AKx, we will pickup Qxx(x) of diamonds almost HALF the time now which is a huge percentage boost. When partner has Qxxx of hearts we pickup long diamonds with 4+ hearts which is also a big percentage boost. 4) Again, don't underestimate how much the ability to run winners before trying to guess diamonds will help us. We are 55 % to get it right before this but much higher when we get more of a count. 5) If you play in diamonds you lose all the squeeze chances, all the ability to get a count before the guess, and all of the times you are cold without guessing diamonds, and the times you get to test for 32 spades before trying diamonds. You also expose yourself to a trick 1 spade ruff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 It seems to me like you are overvaluing how much a count on the hand will help, since so often we can't get a full count on hearts or clubs or both. I really think the chances they lead diamonds against diamonds but not against notrump supercede the improvement in the odds a count on the hand will give us. On that basis I think you have shown there are enough hands that require picking up diamonds to make it worth playing in diamonds. Or at least making it reasonable enough to play in diamonds that "mind bogglingly bad" seems like quite an overbid. It definitely applies to bidding a small slam though. You definitely convinced me I was stupid to not bid 7NT at mps. Frances did state the problem is at imps (I think she edited it after you started posting.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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