your lead

[oldman5757]

[hv=d=e&v=e&s=sk7hqj108d4caq10976]133|100|Scoring: IMP

2NT, P*, 3NT, AP[/hv]

 

* this hand was posted elsewhere in a bidding problem, but I am reposting as a lead problem. You thought about bidding 3 ♣ but didn't.

 

Now, what do you lead against 3NT and why? Do you make a different lead if the game is MP? :blink:

[rogerclee]

I would always lead the ♥Q.

[mtvesuvius]

See the other thread where we all subtly moved the Q♥ to the right of our hand...

[MarkDean]

I would lead the other lady. MPs, I would lead the ♥Q

[JLOL]

I would lead a club, our best chance to beat the hand seems to be setting up our clubs (and it seems like a very good shot). Which club to lead is interesting, the ace would be right if we were certain to have our side's entry but it has a few ways to lose (including the embarassing case where partner has the king and we block the suit). Overall I would just lead the ten. Whatever you do don't lead the genius queen!

[mike777]

[hv=d=e&v=e&s=sk7hqj108d4caq10976]133|100|Scoring: IMP

2NT, P*, 3NT, AP[/hv]

 

* this hand was posted elsewhere in a bidding problem, but I am reposting as a lead problem. You thought about bidding 3 ♣ but didn't.

 

Now, what do you lead against 3NT and why? Do you make a different lead if the game is MP? :)

i was going to say ten of clubs but I see someone suggested that....

[Codo]

Yes without the suggestion there is no way to find the lead of the systemic card from your longest suit.

[P_Marlowe]

a club.

 

We have side entries, all we need is the jack of

clubs with partner.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[oldman5757]

Leading a ♣ seems clear to me at IMPs, and I'd lead the Q. There's little chance that P will get in to return anything, so it seems more likely that your ♠ K is your only entry to beat declarer. Leading the ♥ Q seems unlikely to get us to 5 tricks before declarer gets to 9.

 

If P can't get in, then leading the ♣ Q is a big winner if dummy hits with Jx and declarer has Kxx -- and it's an equally big loser if dummy shows up with Jxx and declarer with Kx. You pays your money and takes your chances. If declarer holds KJx, Q or 10 doesn't matter, as P will have to get in and return a club. If P holds the J, your suit is running if either of you get in, as long as P has another ♣ to return. Most other holdings it doesn't matter which club you lead.

 

Anyway, leading the Q is cooler. Anyone can lead the 10. :)

 

At MPs, ♥ Q is clearly the safe lead, probably denying declarer a club overtrick. If you want to go tops or bottoms, lead the club of your choice. :)

[JLOL]

Umm, how about if partner CAN get in?

 

Then by leading the queen we lose when RHO has KJx because he can duck. If we had led the ten they would be forced to win the jack, then when partner got in they could lead one through.

 

If dummy has Jx and declarer has Kxx and partner has the entry then again, by leading the CQ we enable them to duck. Again we can't run the suit.

 

What about when partner has Kx of clubs and dummy has Jxx? Oops we can no longer run 6 tricks.

 

Also, dummy is definitely more likely to hold club length than declarer (no stayman or transfer by dummy, they won't have a doubleton club unless they have 3352 or 6+ diamonds). Also, dummy is much more likely to have the jack than the king of clubs given that RHO has far more high cards. So the case of Kxx in dummy Jx on right is far less likely than Jxx on left, Kx on right.

 

Also, if partner has our entry then Kxx on left and Jx on right doesn't matter anyways since they can just duck our club queen lead, whereas Jxx on left, Kx on right matters a lot since we can run the suit with a club lead as long as EITHER player gets in.

 

Leading the queen to look "cool" is not a very good bridge reason when the ten is clearly superior.

 

Whether or not you lead the ace or the ten is a completely different issue, certainly if partner has no entry and we have an entry the ace is better, but since it's unclear whether or not we or partner will have the entry I think the ten is better.

 

Ever since someone saw a hand in the bridge world or the newspaper where the queen was the right lead, instead of understanding the rare circumstances that made that so they have just started leading the queen willy nilly from any AQT9 combination and it's pretty funny.

[jdonn]

I essentially agree with everything Justin said about when the different cases work, but I think the ace has a better chance to work than the ten. There is certainly no doubt the ten is better than the queen.

 

Actually I still prefer the heart queen but that's another story, I just think lots of the time no suit is breaking well here and I don't want to give away free tricks.

[MarkDean]

You are right, the queen lead is dumb, especially on this auction.

[vuroth]

From a very basic level of analysis, playing against B/I opponents, I might pull something wacky like the queen lead, if opponents had stalled in 4NT/5NT looking for a slam (and thus, it looked like partner was really, really broke).

 

Partner may very well have 4 points, which sounds a lot like an entry to me. In a B/I field, I'm betting T♣ will do fairly well in IMPs or MPs, most days.

 

V

[oldman5757]

The notion seems to be that leading the ♣ 10 is more likely to keep communication open with P than leading the Q. Maybe your partners get in to return your suit when the other three hands have accounted for 37+ hcp, but mine don't. I'm convinced our best bet is to try to set up clubs with the ♠ K as a possible entry to run them.

 

The best argument against leading the ♣ Q is that there hasn't been a transfer or stayman auction, thus suggesting there might be club length in dummy. If that length happens to be exactly Jxx, with declarer holding exactly Kx, then leading the Q will be spectacularly wrong, but it won't be any dumber or wronger than leading the 10 when dummy hits with a stiff J (plus likely diamond length) or Jx.

 

BTW, if our ♠ K is an entry then we probably have to HOPE declarer ducks with ♣ KJx; we cash the A, put him in and wait for our ♠ trick.

[JLOL]

If you think partner has no chance of getting in then why not lead the ace of clubs to cater to everything?

[jtfanclub]

If you think partner has no chance of getting in then why not lead the ace of clubs to cater to everything?

Suppose declarer has KJx, and partner has either a singleton club or two clubs and no entries.

 

If I lead the ace of clubs or ten of clubs, then declarer is guaranteed two stoppers in clubs. If I lead the queen of clubs, declarer has the option of holding up (in case partner has an entry and two clubs), in which case I can now play the ace and he only has a single stopper.

 

So if I'm only getting in once before he has nine tricks, the ace of clubs gives me no chance of setting the contract, while the queen gives declarer a chance to play partner for the entry.

[jdonn]

If you think partner has no chance of getting in then why not lead the ace of clubs to cater to everything?

Suppose declarer has KJx, and partner has either a singleton club or two clubs and no entries.

 

If I lead the ace of clubs or ten of clubs, then declarer is guaranteed two stoppers in clubs. If I lead the queen of clubs, declarer has the option of holding up (in case partner has an entry and two clubs), in which case I can now play the ace and he only has a single stopper.

 

So if I'm only getting in once before he has nine tricks, the ace of clubs gives me no chance of setting the contract, while the queen gives declarer a chance to play partner for the entry.

If the king of spades is your entry then declarer will know he is finessing into your hand and won't hold up. Conversely if the king of spades is (from declarer's point of view) partner's potential entry then that means his finesse is winning anyway and nothing really matters.

 

If we had the ace of spades you would have a much better point, but if our entry is a king then declarer already know which of us he might lose the lead to and can play accordingly.