Can you make this slam?

[Free]

You're in a clubevening, playing for the 3rd time with someone (in 6 months time), and you get into a 6♥ contract with ♦A and ♥QJ8xx outside. This is the hand:

 

[hv=n=saq9hak64dk9653ct&s=sk2ht975dq8cakq98]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

and bidding (opps didn't say a word):

1♣ - 1♦

1♥ - 4NT

5♦ - 6♥

 

4NT was not RKC, 5♦ was 1/4 aces. Don't bother telling me the bidding sucks, I don't care cause I was in South and p isn't reading this forum anyway :)

 

So you get a ♦A lead from west, and a ♠5 continuation. It's clear that the trump suit will be the most important, because you may not lose a trick, and you have only about 3 choices:

 

- Give West QJx and East 8x and finesse right away if they don't cover

- Give West Hxxx and East H (H = Q or J) and cash the Ace first

- Give anyone QJ and just cash AK

 

What is the percentage play? How do you play?

[Flame]

First there is another possiblity if someone has 4 card diamonds and also the QJ of heart, but thats too rare.

If i had the 8 of heart

I would play A of heart,playing west for QJ or HXXX (meaning i will finesse if an honor is droped from east on the first round.) but as it is now you cant finnese west with H8XX, so you need to choose between QJ doublton on either hand, and QJX(X) in west. the first is about 2/(2^5) = 1/16, the second is about

(2^3-1)/(2^5) = 7/32 which is alot better.

[Free]

ah woops, I overlooked that H8xx in West always makes a trick... So there's only 2 possibilities left... So how do you play after the Ace catching the

 

Q?

J?

[inquiry]

ah woops, I overlooked that H8xx in West always makes a trick...  So there's only 2 possibilities left...  So how do you play after the Ace catching the

 

Q?

J?

Not a good slam. 4-1 will never work, so if an honor was to drop, you need to find QJ doubleton. Odds not great.... I put it at about 6.8%, and even then you still need to ruff one or two clubs in dummy (if clubs are 5-2).

 

Ben

[mpefritz]

I think the immediate hook(leading the T is best, and 9 on second round if covered).

 

It works against:

QJ3 - 82

QJ2 - 83

QJ32 - 8

 

It fails against QJ-832

It fails against 832-QJ

 

AK wins with QJ-832 or 832-QJ, but loses in other cases.

 

note: I am only comparing cases that matter.

 

I won first spade in hand to lead ♥T.

 

However, there are possibly communication issues when LHO covers the first heart. So I'd cross back in clubs to lead the ♥9.

 

fritz

[Flame]

I think the immediate hook(leading the T is best, and 9 on second round if covered).

 

It works against:

QJ3 - 82

QJ2 - 83

QJ32 - 8

 

It fails against QJ-832

It fails against 832-QJ

 

AK wins with QJ-832 or 832-QJ, but loses in other cases.

 

note: I am only comparing cases that matter.

 

I won first spade in hand to lead ♥T.

 

However, there are possibly communication issues when LHO covers the first heart.  So I'd cross back in clubs to lead the ♥9. 

 

fritz

Yes you are right, it wont win QJ8(x) so its only 4/32 not 7/32 like i said before, still twice better then Ben's 1/16 line.

[Fluffy]

Hi!

 

Again I tell same thing, if RHO had ♥QJ bare why did west lead the ace in OUR suit?, that can easilly be a big mistake unless he is looking for a nearly sure trick somewhere else..... you see it already right?.

 

Still the % for running the ♥10 is better, just even better cause of the lead.

[Flame]

Hi!

 

Again I tell same thing, if RHO had ♥QJ bare why did west lead the ace in OUR suit?, that can easilly be a big mistake unless he is looking for a nearly sure trick somewhere else..... you see it already right?.

 

Still the % for running the ♥10 is better, just even better cause of the lead.

Good point.

[Trpltrbl]

4 Tricks, 9.6087%.

You start with the 10 from dummy and let it run.

 

Mike :angry: