OleBerg Posted January 12, 2009 Report Share Posted January 12, 2009 IMP's, all red, (2♠) - pass - (4♠) - ??? ♠ 632♥ AK9876♦ A10♣ Q4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 12, 2009 Report Share Posted January 12, 2009 I take the push and hope RHO doesn't have 20 HCP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted January 12, 2009 Report Share Posted January 12, 2009 It's a guess and I guess "pass". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtvesuvius Posted January 12, 2009 Report Share Posted January 12, 2009 Pass. Sometimes pre-empts work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted January 12, 2009 Report Share Posted January 12, 2009 Pass. I think this is pretty obvious. RHO has general values since otherwise my p would have bid something with his shortness in spades. My hand is not extremely offensive so I don't want to compete to the five-level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanoi5 Posted January 12, 2009 Report Share Posted January 12, 2009 I pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codo Posted January 12, 2009 Report Share Posted January 12, 2009 Maybe even 5 Heart makes oppsite a partner with short spades:Give him x, Qxx, Kxxxx,,Kxxx and hearts 3-1. And there are many hands where we have a good save or we push them to 5 Spade- 1. really tricky, but I trust Gonzalo again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted January 12, 2009 Report Share Posted January 12, 2009 Maybe even 5 Heart makes oppsite a partner with short spades:Give him x, Qxx, Kxxxx,,Kxxx and hearts 3-1.This isn't so great on a trump lead, is it? Although you're right, 5♥ could turn out to be a good sac when partner has this hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P_Marlowe Posted January 12, 2009 Report Share Posted January 12, 2009 Pass. And I think it is pretty clear cut, hence I am feelingstrongly about it. As it is, it is unclear, if 4S was bid the intention to make, in which case 5H will get very expensive or as a sac., sometimes they got you and you haveto accept this. With kind regardsMarlowe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MFA Posted January 12, 2009 Report Share Posted January 12, 2009 5♥.I will take the possible slaughter like a man.Reasonable confident that 5♥ will be a long term winner. Even though if OleBerg is posting, he must have bid and it must have been wrong. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted January 12, 2009 Report Share Posted January 12, 2009 anyone for a simulation here? we need pard's nr of heartsnr of spadeskeycards, HQ DK CAK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted January 12, 2009 Report Share Posted January 12, 2009 Maybe even 5 Heart makes oppsite a partner with short spades:Give him x, Qxx, Kxxxx,,Kxxx and hearts 3-1. And there are many hands where we have a good save or we push them to 5 Spade- 1. really tricky, but I trust Gonzalo again. I did a double dummy simulation with codo's example hand: predeal south S632, HAK9876, DAT, CQ4 predeal north S4, HQ54, DK8543, CK765 west_shape_ok=shape(west, any 6331 + any 6322 + any 6421) && spades(west)==6 west_hcp_ok=hcp(west)>5 && hcp(west)<11 west_ok=west_hcp_ok && west_shape_ok east_shape_ok=spades(east)==3 && (hearts(east)==3 or hearts(east)==1) && !shape(east, any 4333 + any 5332 + any 4432) east_ok=east_shape_ok In a 1000 deal sample, NS made exactly 10 tricks in hearts 1000 times. (Which suggests there might be something wrong with the code.) EW made 9 tricks in spades 765 and less than that 235. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 12, 2009 Report Share Posted January 12, 2009 I'm really confident bidding is a long term loser. RHO can't be totally preemptive or partner would have been able to enter the auction. Meanwhile if he is on a strong hand (which can even have a doubleton spade) it could be absolute slaughter if we bid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted January 12, 2009 Report Share Posted January 12, 2009 RHO can't be totally preemptive or partner would have been able to enter the auction. This is correct and a precious hint. Pard is short in spades and didn't act. So he's broke and RHO is probably heavy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apollo81 Posted January 12, 2009 Report Share Posted January 12, 2009 I'd pass. This hand doesn't have that much playing strength, and if partner had a reasonable hand with short spades (pretty much what we need him to have for a bid) then he probably would have doubled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 13, 2009 Report Share Posted January 13, 2009 Meanwhile if he is on a strong hand (which can even have a doubleton spade) it could be absolute slaughter if we bid. I am most worried about him having singleton, that is when the things get bloody. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OleBerg Posted January 14, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 ... Even though if OleBerg is posting, he must have bid and it must have been wrong. :PVery funny. :D But actually you are on to something; I am looking for justification. I didn't hold the hand, so I only bid 5♥ in the post-mortem, after having seen the full hand: [hv=d=n&v=b&n=sqj1075hdqj62ck1082&w=s632hak9876da10cq4&e=s8hqj532d75caj976&s=sak94h104dk9843c53]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] I was surprised to hear, that some very good players would pass, as I found 5♥ an easy bid. Partner really needs to have minor-junk for it to be expensive, IMP-vise. Of course one hand is no evidence, but at least this one is a case for agressive bidding, both for N-S and E-W. The North hand is the hand from my other thread: "What do you bid?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 Of course one hand is no evidence, but at least this one is a case for agressive bidding, both for N-S and E-W. Well, then run a simulation. Pard could also have a flattish 2344 and assorted junk, no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 If anything, East is closer to a 4NT bid than West is to a 5♥ bid. IMHO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 Not the kind of hand where a simulation is gonan work, the variety of hand on wich south is gonna bid this way makes it unpredictable. This hand is a double fit one, and that's why comepting with both sides is correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 If anything, East is closer to a 4NT bid than West is to a 5♥ bid. IMHO. I agree, although I must admit I wouldn't do either. I think east is closer though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orlam Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 SHOCKING! PARTNER HAS 5-CARD HEART SUPPORT AND A HAND ALMOST WORTH A BID, AND BIDDING TURNS OUT TO BE A WINNER! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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