Play 5 clubs

[mikeh]

I think Benoit's line is reasonable, but it has to be less than playing for any 3-3 diamond break, especially when we can add in the chance of misdefence even when the suit is 4-2. A 3-3 diamond break is 35.5%. The odds of West holding the diamond Ace are (a priori) 50%, and then we have to factor in the odds of his holding fewer than 4 hearts.. btw, by the time we were making this play, we'd know a lot more about the percentages... it seems to be a priori 50% that West holds the long hearts, reducing our estimated odds to 25%... at the time of the play, we'd have this refined.

 

Assume RHO returns a trump at trick 2: win in dummy, ruff a heart, ruff a spade, lead the diamond K.

 

if diamonds are 3-3.. you are home: they win, and even if they return a diamond, you have 2 spade pitches on the red winners. They duck, and you pitch your diamond loser, return to hand with a ruff, pull trump and play spade K... making if spades are 4-4 or the Queen drops.

 

if diamonds are 4-2, and they win the first one and return the suit, you will need the spade Queen to be tripleton.

 

But they may duck the diamond.

 

I think this is the higher percentage line.

 

They may not return a trump... there are differing options available at that point.

[RichMor]

Rich, I took the line from your second-last post and reached this after 9 tricks - assuming opponents didn't win the first diamond trick, which gives you the contract or at least a chance to win with 3-3 diamonds:

 

♠ 

♥ 

♦ QJ84 

♣ 

 

♠ KJ7 

♥ 

♦ 

♣ T

 

Now, lead the ♦Q.  If East covers, then ruff and plunk down the ♠K in a last-ditch attempt to catch a now stiff ♠Q.  I doubt it will work.

 

If East doesn't cover, ditch the ♠7 and West wins the ace.  He can't lead a spade into your ♠KJ so he has to play whatever red card he has left.  If it's a diamond - bingo!  So essentially, this line banks on West holding the ♦A and only three hearts.

Yes, the line I posted last night is wrong (again).

 

In the 6-card end positions after declarer has discarded a second Diamond on the Heart Ace and ruffed a Heart to hand, the closed hand has ♠)KJxx and ♣)xx. I forgot that 2 of the Spades will be losers. :blink:

 

 

The line you posted seems like it might work. This is hand is too hard, maybe 5♣ is impossible with best defense.

[RichMor]

<snip>

if diamonds are 3-3.. you are home: they win, and even if they return a diamond, you have 2 spade pitches on the red winners. They duck, and you pitch your diamond loser, return to hand with a ruff, pull trump and play spade K... making if spades are 4-4 or the Queen drops.

 

if diamonds are 4-2, and they win the first one and return the suit, you will need the spade Queen to be tripleton.

<snip>

Yes, 'if diamonds are 3-3' you have 2 Spade pitches.

 

But how do you know ?

 

If a defender wins the Diamond Ace at trick 5 and returns a Diamond at trick 6, you can win in dummy and cash the Heart Ace. That's one spade pitch.

 

What next?

 

Seems like declarer has to guess now whether to play a third Diamond or ruff a Heart.

 

Right ?