mikeh Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 I think Benoit's line is reasonable, but it has to be less than playing for any 3-3 diamond break, especially when we can add in the chance of misdefence even when the suit is 4-2. A 3-3 diamond break is 35.5%. The odds of West holding the diamond Ace are (a priori) 50%, and then we have to factor in the odds of his holding fewer than 4 hearts.. btw, by the time we were making this play, we'd know a lot more about the percentages... it seems to be a priori 50% that West holds the long hearts, reducing our estimated odds to 25%... at the time of the play, we'd have this refined. Assume RHO returns a trump at trick 2: win in dummy, ruff a heart, ruff a spade, lead the diamond K. if diamonds are 3-3.. you are home: they win, and even if they return a diamond, you have 2 spade pitches on the red winners. They duck, and you pitch your diamond loser, return to hand with a ruff, pull trump and play spade K... making if spades are 4-4 or the Queen drops. if diamonds are 4-2, and they win the first one and return the suit, you will need the spade Queen to be tripleton. But they may duck the diamond. I think this is the higher percentage line. They may not return a trump... there are differing options available at that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichMor Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 Rich, I took the line from your second-last post and reached this after 9 tricks - assuming opponents didn't win the first diamond trick, which gives you the contract or at least a chance to win with 3-3 diamonds: ♠ ♥ ♦ QJ84 ♣ ♠ KJ7 ♥ ♦ ♣ T Now, lead the ♦Q. If East covers, then ruff and plunk down the ♠K in a last-ditch attempt to catch a now stiff ♠Q. I doubt it will work. If East doesn't cover, ditch the ♠7 and West wins the ace. He can't lead a spade into your ♠KJ so he has to play whatever red card he has left. If it's a diamond - bingo! So essentially, this line banks on West holding the ♦A and only three hearts.Yes, the line I posted last night is wrong (again). In the 6-card end positions after declarer has discarded a second Diamond on the Heart Ace and ruffed a Heart to hand, the closed hand has ♠)KJxx and ♣)xx. I forgot that 2 of the Spades will be losers. :blink: The line you posted seems like it might work. This is hand is too hard, maybe 5♣ is impossible with best defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichMor Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 <snip>if diamonds are 3-3.. you are home: they win, and even if they return a diamond, you have 2 spade pitches on the red winners. They duck, and you pitch your diamond loser, return to hand with a ruff, pull trump and play spade K... making if spades are 4-4 or the Queen drops. if diamonds are 4-2, and they win the first one and return the suit, you will need the spade Queen to be tripleton.<snip>Yes, 'if diamonds are 3-3' you have 2 Spade pitches. But how do you know ? If a defender wins the Diamond Ace at trick 5 and returns a Diamond at trick 6, you can win in dummy and cash the Heart Ace. That's one spade pitch. What next? Seems like declarer has to guess now whether to play a third Diamond or ruff a Heart. Right ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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