Forcing Pass?

[vuroth]

1NT 2♠* P 3♣

P 3♦ 3♥ 4♦

4♥ P P ?

 

*Cappelletti

 

Is this a forcing pass situation?

 

First of all, I should never have bid 4D. This hand was a disaster, and the disaster was totally my fault.

 

That said, we just pushed opps into a game they weren't bidding themselves - I have to double or bid 5♦, don't I?

 

V

[awm]

It's not a forcing pass situation. Forcing passes are for when you have shown values for game. In this auction, the 4♦ call was not even necessarily an invite (just competing).

 

It's unfortunate that opponents have bid this game now, but it is quite possible that other tables are bidding the game in any case and that you have only "pushed" the opponents into a normal contract. It is also possible that the game doesn't make, or that 5♦ is not a good sacrifice.

 

The idea that "we pushed them there so now we must double or sacrifice" is actually a fairly common fallacy. Suppose 4♥ either makes or fails by one trick and no one else bids game. If we are NV then:

 

(1) Doubling 4♥ wins us one imp when 4♥ fails. On the other hand, doubling 4♥ loses us three imps when 4♥ makes. If 4♥ never fails by two tricks or more (and never makes overtricks), in order for double to be right we need 4♥ to make less than 25% of the time.

 

(2) Sacrificing for two down means we lose four imps all the time to the field, whereas passing 4♥ loses six when 4♥ makes and wins five when it fails. So for the sacrifice to be right, we need 4♥ to make over 80% of the time.

 

There is a pretty large range (4♥ makes at least 25% of the time but at most 80%) where passing 4♥ out is your best action.

[vuroth]

Thanks.