plaur Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 [hv=d=s&n=sk92h86542da5c654&s=saqjt43haqdj6ca93]133|200|Contract 4♠. Lead club[/hv]You can finesse the queen of hearts for a 50% chance. Can you do better? Merry Christmas everyone and thanks to all posters of the BI forum. I do enjoy reading here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 It'd be brilliant if I could lose my third trick to west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomi2 Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 you can try to eleminate side suits and hope for a defensive error, say ducking first club, takin 2nd one, playing spade, when they are 2-2 your plan is safe since you will leave a high spade in dummy as entry for a finesse later. exit with a club and hope for dia return, take the ace and escape, then you win for examle if your LHO has: xxKxxKQxxKQJT on any other distribition of the minor honors you must hope, the opponents fail to unblock / lead a heart from the right side. after club ducked and club return you are safe every time lho has to win that club and has KQ in dias - this slightly improves your odds only risking an direct club ruff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 Great problem plaur! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maggieb Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 hehehehe, sneaky! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 I love it ;), many non BILs would fail this hand at the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eros2 Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 What does lefty lead? A spot card or honour? On the K♣ lead, I am looking for righty to give count. Suppose righty shows an odd number, I duck 2 clubs, win the third and take the AQ♠. I lead to the A♦ and back to my J♦, endplaying lefty if he has K♦ (righty ducks) and trumps split 1-3, 0-4 or 2-2. A ♦ switch at trick 2 would be annoying... Righty can force me into the ♥ hook if I duck. I don't know about anything else... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 Wow, I'd be awfully nervous about ducking one club, much less 2. It seems to me that ducking 1 club is safest, though of course you may go down if the finesse was on and clubs were 6-1 - certainly not impossible. I guess the reason it's right to do so is that we have to minimize our chances of east getting in and leading a heart. Certainly, if it happens, we're no worse off than we were just taking the finesse, but if we're going to expose ourselves to the added risk of a second round club ruff, there have to be compensations. V Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 I love it :), many non BILs would fail this hand at the table. Yeah I think it is a very common mistake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eros2 Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 t taking the finesse, but if we're going to expose ourselves to the added risk of a second round club ruff, there have to be compensations. Righty would be ruffing a loser. The only difference is that 4S is -2 (instead of -1) if a ♥ is returned and the hook is failing. If it is working, we still make the contract by drawing trump before cashing the A♣. Suppose that righty fails to switch to a ♥ after ruffing at trick 2, now there is no threat if trumps are 1-3. Win any return, cash AQ♠ and your minor suit aces (if trumps are not 0-4). Exit with a diamond to the J♦ as before. Still no idea what I would do with a spot card lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 t taking the finesse, but if we're going to expose ourselves to the added risk of a second round club ruff, there have to be compensations. Righty would be ruffing a loser. Unless righty overtakes and returns, and lefty was single. It seems to me there's always at least a small added risk in ducking the first club. Not saying it's not worthwhile, necessarily. V Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flameous Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 My line is CA, SA, HA, HQ, win return after losing 2 clubs, now ruff heart twice to throw a diamond. Works with 3-3 and 4-2 hearts so it has near 85% odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trumpace Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 My line is CA, SA, HA, HQ, win return after losing 2 clubs, now ruff heart twice to throw a diamond. Works with 3-3 and 4-2 hearts so it has near 85% odds. 85% seems to be an overestimate by about 10%... but I think this is the line to take too. Endplay possibilties are not too good, a simple heart finesse is probably better than trying to manouver a throw-in, but it can't beat the above line. Sneaky hand :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flameous Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 Oh right... I missed that this line doesn't work with spades 4-0 so I only counted hearts breaking 4-2 or 3-3 which is 84% unless I have something horribly wrong. Although still needs diamond return with spades 4-0 so it's not hopeless even then :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 My line is CA, SA, HA, HQ, win return after losing 2 clubs, now ruff heart twice to throw a diamond. Works with 3-3 and 4-2 hearts so it has near 85% odds. Didn't notice the spade spots were really THAT good. nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fred Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 Oh right... I missed that this line doesn't work with spades 4-0 so I only counted hearts breaking 4-2 or 3-3 which is 84% unless I have something horribly wrong. Although still needs diamond return with spades 4-0 so it's not hopeless even then :)In your line you cash the Ace of spades at trick 2 (smartly). If you find out spades are 4-0 you can still take the heart finesse. Give yourself another 5% or so. Your line also worked if spades are not 4-0 and the King of hearts is singleton. You get 2% or so for that. Fred GitelmanBridge Base Inc.www.bridgebase.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trumpace Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 Oh right... I missed that this line doesn't work with spades 4-0 so I only counted hearts breaking 4-2 or 3-3 which is 84% unless I have something horribly wrong. Although still needs diamond return with spades 4-0 so it's not hopeless even then :)In your line you cash the Ace of spades at trick 2 (smartly). If you find out spades are 4-0 you can still take the heart finesse. Give yourself another 5% or so. Your line also worked if spades are not 4-0 and the King of hearts is singleton. You get 2% or so for that. Fred GitelmanBridge Base Inc.www.bridgebase.com That gets it back to "near 85%" :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fred Posted December 25, 2008 Report Share Posted December 25, 2008 Oh right... I missed that this line doesn't work with spades 4-0 so I only counted hearts breaking 4-2 or 3-3 which is 84% unless I have something horribly wrong. Although still needs diamond return with spades 4-0 so it's not hopeless even then :rolleyes:In your line you cash the Ace of spades at trick 2 (smartly). If you find out spades are 4-0 you can still take the heart finesse. Give yourself another 5% or so. Your line also worked if spades are not 4-0 and the King of hearts is singleton. You get 2% or so for that. Fred GitelmanBridge Base Inc.www.bridgebase.com That gets it back to "near 85%" :)You might also be interested in knowing that your original line might work if spades are 4-0 even against best defense. Imagine East with 4 spades and 3 hearts. You can work out the details. The math involved in comparing this variation to taking the heart finesse once you learn that East has 4 spades is a little too much for me to do in my head, but I am pretty sure that the heart finesse is superior. Thanks to plaur for a nice problem :) Fred GitelmanBridge Base Inc.www.bridgebase.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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