Blind faith

[Benoit35]

I agree with Fred. If the club return helps South, he will use it. If not, he can ruff in hand and make it equivalent to returning a diamond.

 

I think you need better reasons ... Can the absence of a spade return argue your case better, Ken? On second thought, I don't think so and here's why...

 

Holding ♠J and ♥K, a spade return has the effect of almost guaranteeing solving the trump suit for South... hence making it easy for him to ruff the diamond loser and try the finesse! On the other hand, "don't rock the boat" means that South is stuck with his short supply of entries to dummy so a good West, looking at ♠J ♥K and the table, should think "this is a hard one for declarer, things are looking good so why don't I just exit with a dia-- HEY WAIT! He's so deep in trouble, his only hope might just be to try and bang down the ♥A on me! Let's see, how can I make his life easier?"

 

And the answer is, give South the ♠J on a silver platter. If the spades aren't solved for South, he will go for my stiff ♥K like he would have done anyway, but if he can now run trumps without using up his entry, he will be quite comfortable taking the heart finesse - the odds are 75% against a 3-1 break.

 

Once a good defender and a good declarer are both aware of this, it's become a game of "he knows but he knows that I know that he knows..." and we might as well be playing rock-paper-scissors. At this point I throw psychology out the window, and play the odds. ♠J ♥x ♦Qxxxxx ♣AQxxx is three times as likely as ♠J ♥K ♦Qxxxxx ♣AQxxx.

[kenrexford]

Huh?

 

Let's try the Fred hand. Declarer has ♠AKxxxxx ♥A ♦Kxx ♣Kx. If you lead another diamond, Declarer wins, ruffs a diamond, cashes the spade Queen, heart to hand, pulls trumps, and claims. How is this an otherwise unmakeable game? It might be unmakeable after some lead other than a diamond, but Declarer did not get that switch.

 

As to the general objection that Declarer can ruff a club in his hand. Sure. Declarer is capable of making the right play. However, if you know that Declarer only has one way to go wrong, namely by offering to him a possible mistake, you throw that option out to him. You lose a lot of matchpoints/IMPs if you do not ever cater to Declarer's Folly.

[fred]

Huh?

 

Let's try the Fred hand. Declarer has ♠AKxxxxx ♥A ♦Kxx ♣Kx. If you lead another diamond, Declarer wins, ruffs a diamond, cashes the spade Queen, heart to hand, pulls trumps, and claims. How is this an otherwise unmakeable game? It might be unmakeable after some lead other than a diamond, but Declarer did not get that switch.

If declarer ruffs the 3rd diamond with dummy's 9, partner overruffs with the 10.

 

If declarer ruffs the 3rd diamond with dummy's Q, partner gets his 10xx later.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

[kenrexford]

Huh?

 

Let's try the Fred hand.  Declarer has ♠AKxxxxx ♥A ♦Kxx ♣Kx.  If you lead another diamond, Declarer wins, ruffs a diamond, cashes the spade Queen, heart to hand, pulls trumps, and claims.  How is this an otherwise unmakeable game?  It might be unmakeable after some lead other than a diamond, but Declarer did not get that switch.

If declarer ruffs the 3rd diamond with dummy's 9, partner overruffs with the 10.

 

If declarer ruffs the 3rd diamond with dummy's Q, partner gets his 10xx later.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

Oh yeah. I keep forgetting that diamonds could be 6-2, such that a ruff cannot work for Declarer.

 

DUH!!!

 

Please disregard everything else I wrote earlier. LOL

[JLOL]

stuff

 

LOL

[kenrexford]

stuff

 

LOL

My thoughts exactly. So many words to prove what could be summed up in four. "I am an idiot!" LOL