Blind faith

[marie__L]

[hv=d=s&v=e&n=sq9hqj87654dj2c52&s=sak10854ha3dk63ck3]133|200|[/hv]

 

A beautiful play I think.

 

 

You are playing 4 Spades in South after you opened 1♠ and LHO overcalled 2NT showing minors.

 

LHO lead the 8 of Diamond (3rd and 5th)

RHO plays the Ace and plays back the 10 of Club, for the King and the Ace.

LHO now plays the Queen of Club (the 2 in RHO-standard carding)and play back the Queen of Diamond.

 

How do you play?

[kenrexford]

The initial thought leads into a problem. If I ruff the third diamond to play the top heart, I get caught in a serious issue. I can cash the top spade and then play the heart Queen, but then RHO can duck, leaving me stranded on dummy. If LHO is 2-1-5-5, for instance, I am trapped.

 

One counter is to ruff the third diamond high (just in case) and then play the heart Queen. Whether it is covered or not is immaterial. I can then play LHO to have specifically Jx-x or J-xx in the majors.

 

Alternatively, I could simply pull trumps, playing LHO for specifically stiff king in hearts.

 

Of these two lines, playing LHO for Jx seems better, because that "x" could be one of four cards, or the stiff Jack, which is much higher than stiff King.

 

A third line is to ruff the diamond high, not so much "just in case," to then lead the heart Queen. If it is covered, then I resort to dropping the stiff or doubleton Jack. If it is ducked, then I have the option of hooking the Jack if RHO has it. Of course, that just gives RHO a counter of forcing me to play for the drop when it fails or enticing me with the hook when that fails. So, I ain't hooking on that line, no matter what.

 

So, what about the defense? Any clues there?

 

Not so much. RHO switching to a club seems obvious. LHO's lead seems obvious. RHO's carding seems obvious and expected. LHO's carding seems obvious and expected. So, nothing weird. But, would anything weird have occurred to the opponents as a counter to my options?

 

The only perosn with a legitimate reason to consider any other move would be LHO, after winning the third minor-suit trick. LHO might have opted to play, for example, a third club, just to see what happens. He expects an obvious diamond King in our hand, so why go passive, when a club continuation might present us with a problem?

 

On a club continuation, we might be induced to ruff on dummy to ditch a heart. After a heart back to our Ace, we could then ruff the diamond out. This avoids the heart finesse and relies upon spades being Jx or J somewhere. Of course, we would then be stranded on dummy.

 

So, we would reject that line. We could still ruff the club, however, ditching a diamond, which accomplishes nothing obvious. We try the heart Queen and then play spades for 2-2. So, nothing changes.

 

However, LHO does not know that we would get this right. His hypo play of a third club might induce a quick mistake of actually ditching the heart to then find out what the problem is, perhaps. What we would do at this point, I suppose, is to play a heart to the Ace, ruff a diamond, and then hope to ruff a heart back with the 8. Except that this line cannot work. So, we would resort to hoping that LHO has two hearts and the stiff spade Jack, ruffing low.

 

But, that seems silly.

 

And yet, why not try to mess us up with a fourth club? What can go wrong for the defense on that line?

 

Perhaps LHO actually has not thought through what we would do. Maybe he thinks that a ditch of the heart loser on that club ruff would actually benefit us. We would benefit if we hold 7-2-2-2 shape.

 

All of this leads me to believe that LHO might very well be staring at that heart King. Without it, he would probably throw a club out, to see what happens.

 

If he has the heart King, and it is stiff, then all I need to do is to pull trumps and bang down the heart Ace. If he has Kx, I have no solution.

 

What if, however, he has 1-1-6-5, with the heart King? (Why no pip from RHO for his second diamond?) Well, let's see. If he has Q1098x(x), he would presumably lead the 10. So, the 8 means Q108xx(x) or Q98xx(x). Whenever LHO has 1-1-6-5, then, it seems that RHO will play the 10 or 9 as his second diamond card, to even create a problem. So, let's assume that LHO does play that 10 or 9. (A nice falsecard from A10x/A9x? Seems like normal, actually, as "present count.")

 

Well, LHO ends up with Q(10/9)8xx(x), and hence one or two spades. I assume that everyone follows to the first spade. So, the remaining holdings of interest in spades are LHO out or LHO with one remaining. If he has one remaining, and hence two initially, the odds are 3:2 that it is not the Jack. When he is out, that "non-spade" places the Jack with RHO.

 

So, the finesse seems on.

 

OK, then. I'll win the diamond and then plunk down the heart Ace, just to verify. If that fails to drop the King, I now know that I have guessed wrong. So, I'll assume that LHO has Kx, where the others at other tables will finesse the heart, losing. So, LHO, per force of assumption, has a stiff spade, and I will pull trumps, finessing for the Jack.

 

If the stiff King falls, then I cross to dummy's spade Queen and lead a spade back. I hook because of the odds favoring the hook, it seems.

[han]

I think LHO would probably have lead a stiff heart if she had it. If the heart king doesn't drop you are already down, right Ken?

[marie__L]

The initial thought leads into a problem. If I ruff the third diamond to play the top heart, I get caught in a serious issue. I can cash the top spade and then play the heart Queen, but then RHO can duck, leaving me stranded on dummy. If LHO is 2-1-5-5, for instance, I am trapped.

They lead strictly 3rd and 5th.

I don't know why he lead this strange 8 of Diamond but I think you can assume LHO got 6 cards in Diamond or he would lead the smaller with 5 cards.

 

Beside he said 2NT with ADxxx in Club and only the Queen in Diamond then he is more likely to be 6-5 as he was red.

 

This means he has 2 cards in the majors

 

Marie

[Benoit35]

(edited)

 

Assuming 6-5 minors then ... give West two of the following 9 cards: ♠J7632 and ♥KT92. There are 36 possibilities in total.

 

Looks like this can't be made if he has two spades... The assumed 6-5 situation ruins Ken's line of "One counter is to ruff the third diamond high (just in case) and then play the heart Queen. Whether it is covered or not is immaterial. I can then play LHO to have specifically Jx-x or J-xx in the majors." With Jx, West will ruff the successful heart finesse.

 

I see two lines of play here:

 

Line 1: Ruff the diamond with the 9 of spades. If not overruffed, cash the queen then finesse the hearts. Works if West has the J of spades and a small heart - 3 cases out of 36.

 

Line 2: Plunk down the ♥A after drawing trumps. Works if West has the stiff ♥K (4 cases excluding specifically ♥K-♠J) OR if he drops the jack on the way to the queen, in which case you change plans - heart finesse, diamond ruff, heart to the ace, pull trumps - works for 3 more cases, namely the three which are caught by Line 1. Total = 7 cases, with the added fun of an almost-Grosvenor Gambit for West if he has ♠Jx ("almost" because no chance to make the contract is actually being given by falsecarding the jack, but it would be worth seeing the "WTF" face on South when W ruffs the heart).

 

Unless I made a mistake somewhere, line 2 wins... I mean, loses less often. Better yet, there is no situation that Line 1 can beat, that Line 2 can't beat also. You have to realize the near hopelessness of trying to 1) ruff a diamond, 2) draw trumps and 3) finesse the hearts, all of which are required even if the ♥K is onside and can't be achieved without a stiff jack of spades on your left. Whereas plopping down the ace, if it works (though not likely) has the advantage of solving the diamond loser.

[Hanoi5]

I play for the stiff ♥K, and after winning the ♦K I therefore play the ♥A and upon seeing the King fall from LHO I finesse in spades if LHO has a small singleton.

[Benoit35]

Hanoi, play the spades first - see Line 2 above, it also catches West with ♠J-♥x (at the small cost of losing to ♠J-♥K).

[kenrexford]

Hanoi, play the spades first - see Line 2 above, it also catches West with ♠J-♥x (at the small cost of losing to ♠J-♥K).

If LHO has the Jx and the stiff heart King, he ruins your gambit by playing the spade Jack when you lead small toward dummy. I still think 2-1-5-5 is quite possible, and there are four layouts for this holding.

 

I mean, is the 8 play anything more than "third best" because LHO wants a club switch? Fifth best might induce a return in his mind.

[Benoit35]

Oh I agree - what I said falls apart in the 5-5 case. Let's examine it... Now West has to have three of the missing major suit cards (there are 84 possibilities).

 

Spade ruff followed by ♥finesse now works if West has ♠Jx ♥x (12 cases) or ♠J ♥xx (3 cases) for a total of 15 winning cases.

 

Small spade to the Queen, run the rest of the spades, then hammer down the ♥A. Works if West holds any two spades and a stiff ♥K (10 cases). This can't be refined in case the ♠Q takes West's ♠J, because West may be falsecarding as Ken pointed out.

 

So, 5-5 says ruff and heart finesse, 6-5 says go after the stiff ♥K. Which is it...?

[kenrexford]

Oh I agree - what I said falls apart in the 5-5 case. Let's examine it... Now West has to have three of the missing major suit cards (there are 84 possibilities).

 

Spade ruff followed by ♥finesse now works if West has ♠Jx ♥x (12 cases) or ♠J ♥xx (3 cases) for a total of 15 winning cases.

 

Small spade to the Queen, run the rest of the spades, then hammer down the ♥A. Works if West holds any two spades and a stiff ♥K (10 cases). This can't be refined in case the ♠Q takes West's ♠J, because West may be falsecarding as Ken pointed out.

 

So, 5-5 says ruff and heart finesse, 6-5 says go after the stiff ♥K. Which is it...?

I may be wrong, but I think you are still focusing too much on percentages and mathematics and missing the psychology of this thing. I, on the other hand, may admittedly be reading too much into the psychology.

 

The key question I would have is this. If you are sitting as a defender, with ♦Qxxxx(x) in diamonds and ♣AQxxx in clubs, you see dummy and have seen partner's cards. You have heard the auction. You know that Declarer has the diamond King and is out of clubs. You know that the heart finesse is or is not working.

 

So, given whatever knowledge that you have, would you not have two basic options that this point?

 

Option #1: Go passive. Play the diamond Queen and sit back. Do no harm.

Option #2: Throw a zinger at Declarer. No-gain ruff-sluffs sometimes cause handling problems, and they sometimes induce mistakes.

 

If you go with option #1, you are probably looking at the setting trick (the heart King).

If you go with option #2, you probably know that the only hope is to create some sort of losing option or mistake or trap for Declarer. (You lack the heart King, and/or you have very short spades.)

 

Hence, the passive line suggests to me that LHO has the heart King. I think this is a substantial inference, personally.

[Benoit35]

Well you see that the mathematical reasoning has me still sitting on the fence, so the psychological aspect can certainly help... But against the average BBO defender, I'm not sure I'd give them the credit of having an Option #2 overriding the generic command "never give a ruff and sluff!"

 

It all depends on whose butt in in that seat...

[kenrexford]

Well you see that the mathematical reasoning has me still sitting on the fence, so the psychological aspect can certainly help... But against the average BBO defender, I'm not sure I'd give them the credit of having an Option #2 overriding the generic command "never give a ruff and sluff!"

 

It all depends on whose butt in in that seat...

Hugely important observation. B) That's why I hate Stratified Pairs.

[fred]

Option #2: Throw a zinger at Declarer.  No-gain ruff-sluffs sometimes cause handling problems, and they sometimes induce mistakes.

And sometimes you are the one who gets zinged (when declarer has a singleton heart is the most obvious case - if you are really unlucky declarer will have AJ10xxxxx and x in the majors - now the no-gain ruff-sluff actually gains 2 tricks for declarer).

 

A ruff sluff might also help declarer on a hand like this one - where he would like to ruff his diamond loser, but can't afford to ruff it low. He might appreciate it if you give him a chance to ruff a club low instead as he discards his diamond loser.

 

I think you will find it harder to construct a hand where a ruff-sluff actually helps the defense.

 

Hence, the passive line suggests to me that LHO has the heart King. I think this is a substantial inference, personally.

 

I think it would be quite unusual for a strong defender to offer a ruff sluff in this situation. As Benoit correctly points out, a weak defender is unlikely to even considering giving a ruff sluff.

 

Drawing substantial inference from the lack of such a play is misguided IMO.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

[Benoit35]

Fred: I think some of those situations (arguing against giving the ruff-sluff) West can overlook, based on the fact that his partner didn't cash the ♥A before returning.

 

(EDIT: What follows is comletely wrong. I have a post later on that explains why I now think West, with a stiff ♥K, might be more inclined to return a spade - even the jack.)

 

But might a different "zinger" have been a spade return...? Facing bad cards, an everyday BBO West might have wanted to make it more difficult for us to ruff the diamond, exiting with a trump. That he didn't do this, seems to me to be a better case for the offside ♥K hypothesis. Moreover, he would especially have avoided this if his king were stiff - it would have been insane to put any kind of pressure that might force declarer to forego the heart finesse; on the contrary, he would have wanted this option to be as comfortable as possible to us.

 

So after all this I'm with Ken again, and I say play for the singleton king. But I still switch to the H finesse if the first spade trick pulls out West's jack. West's falsecarding (which - again - will not even enter the thought of your average BBO opponent) will marginally reduce my odds if his minors are 5-5, but this line has a 40% better chance of success if they're 6-5.

[Fluffy]

My experience from this ruff& sluff for free has 2 examples:

 

with AQxxxx opposite singleton gave the chance to correctly read and make the finese on the suit, it was 5-1 and I just needed 1 more trick.

 

With 10 trumps my LHO gave me access to dummy, wich anyway I had already (but she didn't know), I catched her singleton K of trumps.

 

So far it hasn't been very profitable.

[brianshark]

I'm going to ruff the ♦ low, then run the ♥Q, and if ducked, lead the ♠Q overtaking and drawing trumps from the top.

 

♥K on my right and ♠J on my left seems more likely than stiff ♥K and 2 ♠s on my left, especially if we think Lefty has 6 ♦s.

[Benoit35]

Of course "stiff ♥K and 2 ♠s on my left" is unlikely if Lefty has only two cards in the major suits... ;)

 

Know this, though: In the 6-5 case, 1) We cannot make the contract, period, unless West has two singletons. 2) Given this, he is more likely to have the ♥K (out of 4 missing hearts) than the ♠J (out of 5 missing spades). 3) Moreover, we have a line of play that wins if West has either the stiff ♥K or stiff ♠J (but not if he has both) - why not use it if we strongly suspect an "unusual unusual" 6-5?

[brianshark]

Moreover, we have a line of play that wins if West has either the stiff ♥K or stiff ♠J (but not if he has both) - why not use it if we strongly suspect an "unusual unusual" 6-5?

What line is that?

[Benoit35]

It's a two-pronged approach: the first prong is a small spade to the queen with the intent of drawing trumps (finessing the ♠J) then putting down the ♥A hoping to drop the stiff ♥K, BUT...

 

If this immediately drops the ♠J on your left, we switch to the second prong because ♠J-♥x is now more likely than the stiff ♥K. Finesse the heart, ruff the diamond, back in hand with the ♥A and finish the trumps.

 

In addition to catching the stiff ♥K, this line also wins against stiff ♠J and a small heart, at the small cost of losing against ♠J-♥K which is three times less likely.

 

All of this assuming 6-5.

[marie__L]

This hand comes from the 'coupe de France' last week-end in Paris.

 

My husband played and won it.

 

He assumed LHO was 6-5 and realized he couldn't make if he had a void somewhere then he assumed he had 2 singletons.

 

He played Spade to the Queen to check if the Jack dropped.

When LHO played small Spade he finessed the Jack , hoping now for the stiff King of Heart.

 

And that worked( or he wouldn't report me the hand!)

 

If the Jack of Spade dropped he would have finessed in Heart( witch is really more likely than the stiff King)

 

Bravo à Benoit who found the winning line of play .

 

Marie

[kenrexford]

As the cards lie, then, plunking down the heart Ace first works equally well.

 

I think the unresolved question, one that may never be resolved, is whether any specific line works best in the long run.

[marie__L]

As the cards lie, then, plunking down the heart Ace first works equally well.

 

I think the unresolved question, one that may never be resolved, is whether any specific line works best in the long run.

Of course as the cards lie plunking the Ace of Heart first works equally well but this is a wrong line as the you will not make when LHO has the stiff Jack of Spade and a small singleton Heart.

 

If the Jack of Spade dropped your best chance is by sure to finesse in Heart as you know 3 cards in RHO and only 1 in RHO.

 

Then playing Spade to the Queen is better than plunking the Ace of Heart first.

[kenrexford]

As the cards lie, then, plunking down the heart Ace first works equally well.

 

I think the unresolved question, one that may never be resolved, is whether any specific line works best in the long run.

Of course as the cards lie plunking the Ace of Heart first works equally well but this is a wrong line as the you will not make when LHO has the stiff Jack of Spade and a small singleton Heart.

 

If the Jack of Spade dropped your best chance is by sure to finesse in Heart as you know 3 cards in RHO and only 1 in RHO.

 

Then playing Spade to the Queen is better than plunking the Ace of Heart first.

What you have written sounds very authoritative and logical.

 

I could just as easily explain very authoritatively, though, how mathematically correct "Eight Ever Nine Never" is, give you a ten-card trump fit missing the Queen, and then convince you that contextually playing for the drop makes sense (because, for instance, someone opened 1NT).

 

If I see the Jack fall under the Queen when I lead to dummy, I am most assuredly dropping the stiff King, not finessing. Suppose I make the assumption (not clear, but I'll bite) that LHO legitimately has 1-1-6-5. That gives him one of the two possible hands:

 

♠J ♥K ♦Qxxxxx ♣AQxxx

♠J ♥x ♦Qxxxxx ♣AQxxx

 

With the second hand, after leading the diamond and winning two clubs, I'm looking at hearts with full knowledge that Declarer's finesse will work. I'm also looking, however, at the fact that dummy has the Q9 tight (in trumps). It is not too difficult to imagine partner having some promotable spade value. So, I am 100% sending out a third club.

 

With the first, I am going passive. Actually, I might even try the tap with that hand, which is why 1-1-6-5 seems strange. But, if I don't go tap, I assuredly have the first hand.

 

So, I don't buy, myself, this idea that playing a spade to the Queen first is superior. I would NEVER hook the heart, given the defense.

[fred]

I'm also looking, however, at the fact that dummy has the Q9 tight (in trumps).  It is not too difficult to imagine partner having some promotable spade value.  So, I am 100% sending out a third club.

Ken,

 

I am having difficulty imagining a hand where a 3rd club gains. Declarer can always ruff in his hand if he has, for example, AK8xxx of spades. What "promotable spade values" are you playing partner for - what specific holding(s)?

 

Meanwhile, it is not hard to come up with hands where the 3rd club allows declarer to make an impossible contract. For example:

 

AK8xxxx

A

Kxx

Kx

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

[marie__L]

As the cards lie, then, plunking down the heart Ace first works equally well.

 

I think the unresolved question, one that may never be resolved, is whether any specific line works best in the long run.

Of course as the cards lie plunking the Ace of Heart first works equally well but this is a wrong line as the you will not make when LHO has the stiff Jack of Spade and a small singleton Heart.

 

If the Jack of Spade dropped your best chance is by sure to finesse in Heart as you know 3 cards in RHO and only 1 in RHO.

 

Then playing Spade to the Queen is better than plunking the Ace of Heart first.

What you have written sounds very authoritative and logical.

 

I could just as easily explain very authoritatively, though, how mathematically correct "Eight Ever Nine Never" is, give you a ten-card trump fit missing the Queen, and then convince you that contextually playing for the drop makes sense (because, for instance, someone opened 1NT).

 

If I see the Jack fall under the Queen when I lead to dummy, I am most assuredly dropping the stiff King, not finessing. Suppose I make the assumption (not clear, but I'll bite) that LHO legitimately has 1-1-6-5. That gives him one of the two possible hands:

 

♠J ♥K ♦Qxxxxx ♣AQxxx

♠J ♥x ♦Qxxxxx ♣AQxxx

 

With the second hand, after leading the diamond and winning two clubs, I'm looking at hearts with full knowledge that Declarer's finesse will work. I'm also looking, however, at the fact that dummy has the Q9 tight (in trumps). It is not too difficult to imagine partner having some promotable spade value. So, I am 100% sending out a third club.

 

With the first, I am going passive. Actually, I might even try the tap with that hand, which is why 1-1-6-5 seems strange. But, if I don't go tap, I assuredly have the first hand.

 

So, I don't buy, myself, this idea that playing a spade to the Queen first is superior. I would NEVER hook the heart, given the defense.

Excuse me but I don't understand how sending out a 3rd Club could promote a trump.?

 

The Club suit is know 5242 then the declarer can simply ruff in his hand.