Drop or Hook?

[kenrexford]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sj8xxhxdakjxcaqxx&s=sqxxhaqxxxdxxckjx]133|200|Scoring: MP

1♥-P-2♣-P

2NT-P-3NT-all pass[/hv]

 

You get a diamond lead that looks like fourth best. Smelling a possible rat, you play low from dummy, rewarded when RHO wins the Queen. RHO returns a diamond.

 

Interesting.

 

At this point, for no specific reason, you decide to lead the spade Jack off dummy. This is probably insane, but it is your play. RHO pops King, winning, to return the spade 10-Q-Ace. LHO now switches bask to diamonds, RHO showing out.

 

So, you run off all the minor winners to end up with ♠8x ♥x on dummy and ♥AQx in hand. What factors (pitches, earlier plays) would lead you to take each of the following plays at this point?

 

1. Spade (throw-in)

2. Heart (to finesse)

3. Heart (planning to play the Ace for a drop of the stiff King)

 

I thought this was an interesting ending.

[jdaming]

Did the ♣ split?

 

I don't like the throw in as it seems that either RHO has the 9 and they split or one has them both in either case that play either loses or gains nothing. I doubt RHO would lead the 10 through without one of these situations being true.

 

None of the opponents plays are that unusual so I would take the finesse. If clubs did not split I might think much harder about playing for a K drop.

[foo]

♠J8xx♥x♦AKJx♣AQxx

+

♠Qxx♥AQxxx♦xx♣KJx

 

1♥-P-2♣-P;2NT-P-3NT-all pass

 

You get a diamond lead that looks like fourth best.  Smelling a possible rat, you play low from dummy, rewarded when RHO wins the Queen.  RHO returns a diamond.

 

Interesting.

 

At this point, for no specific reason, you decide to lead the spade Jack off dummy.  This is probably insane, but it is your play.  RHO pops King, winning, to return the spade T-Q-Ace.  LHO now switches back to diamonds, RHO showing out.

 

So, you run off all the minor winners to end up with ♠8x ♥x on dummy and ♥AQx in hand.  What factors (pitches, earlier plays) would lead you to take each of the following plays at this point?

 

1. Spade (throw-in)

2. Heart (to finesse)

3. Heart (planning to play the Ace for a drop of the stiff King)

 

I thought this was an interesting ending.

Ken, after the ♦ lead and return

a= You have 8 tricks in the bag and only need one more

b= They made a mistake by not putting one of their 7 ♥'s thru your AQxxx+x

(Why?)

 

Since you only need one more trick to make 3N, it would appear that you should play J8xx+Qxx as optimally as possible to get 1 trick before They collect 4 more?

 

If making the contract is your goal, the proper way to play J8xx+Qxx starts with playing an x from dummy and your hand no matter what RHO plays.

If you play the suit this way, your odds of getting at least 1 ♠ trick are ~7:1 in your favor.

(Trying to get 2 tricks in this suit requires AK or AKx in one hand... ...and that you play correctly as to which hand it is B) )

 

If RHO pops the ♠K on this line and returns ♠T on this line as they did ATT on your line, they are simply helping you establish the suit.

 

In addition, if RHO plays 2nd hand high with the ♠K, there would appear to be a good chance that LHO is long in the Pointeds while RHO is long in the Roundeds. IOW, the play so far strongly implies RHO has the ♥K.

 

Since this is MPs and you have enough highs that you are supposed to make 10+ tricks under normal circumstances, that inference gives you another option in deciding how you want to handle this board to maximize your chances of a good MP score.

[Benoit35]

Interesting indeed. Ignoring the obvious situations such as opponents pitching too many hearts or spades, let's look at cases separately...

 

Case #1: West Keeps A Diamond

 

The spade throw-in is not an option. East will exit with a heart and we're no better off than trying the finesse anyway. If West wins the spade, we lose.

 

If West has kept ♥Kx ♦x, we lose no matter what.

 

The only other case where the finesse fails is when West has kept ♠x ♥K ♦x - either he started with a stiff King in the first place (but there are six other possible heart singletons he could have had) or he's very stupid. The odds favour the finesse.

 

If you see West pitch a heart or two, all the more reason to finesse. If you eventually lose to a stiff ♥K, congratulations! You have just witnessed a Grosvenor coup. If that happens to me, I consider myself lucky to have been on the receiving end of it, and I buy West a drink.

 

So, if West keeps a diamond, I am definitely finessing the hearts unless I get a clue for the stiff ♥K on my left, and I have a hard time imagining what that clue could be other than East discarding six hearts.

 

Case #2: West Discards His 5th Diamond

 

Easy. If West has ♠x ♥Kx or ♥Kxx, you lose no matter what. If he doesn't, the throw-in always wins (take the finesse if East takes it and returns a heart) because it puts East in hand with ♠9x ♥K or ♠9 ♥Kx.

 

Conclusion: Go for the throw-in if you see two diamond discards on your left. If not, finesse the ♥K.

[kenrexford]

The only other case where the finesse fails is when West has kept ♠x ♥K ♦x - either he started with a stiff King in the first place or he's very, very stupid. He is way, way more likely to have a small heart instead, and the finesse wins.

LHO saving down to x-K-x is either stupid or brilliant. If the spade is the 9, for example, saving down to 9x-K or 9-Kx might be readable. But, saving down to 9-K-x apparently is not.

[Benoit35]

Ah, yes. Starting with ♠x and at least ♥Kx, keeping ♠x ♥K ♦x would be the Grosvenor coup - the contract is doomed, you give it a chance to make but no sane declarer would take it. But West can't afford to pull that stunt, because a sane declarer may very well go for the drop. Read on...

 

Starting with ♠9 ♥Kx as West, you can be beaten by the throw-in so you have to keep the diamond (otherwise declarer will elect for the throw-in, see above). And so you must whittle down to ♠9 ♥K ♦x.

 

So now, putting on declarer's hat, I see West pitch some hearts and think, Is he doing this to avoid being endplayed? And I might slam the ♥A. Take that, Grosvenor!

 

My action might depend on the club split then. West is more likely to have both the ♠9 and ♥Kx if he started ?-?-5-2 than ?-?-5-4.

[kenrexford]

Ah, yes. Starting with ♠x and at least ♥Kx, keeping ♠x ♥K ♦x would be the Grosvenor coup - the contract is doomed, you give it a chance to make but no sane declarer would take it. But West can't afford to pull that stunt, because a sane declarer may very well go for the drop. Read on...

 

Starting with ♠9 ♥Kx as West, you can be beaten by the throw-in so you have to keep the diamond (otherwise declarer will elect for the throw-in, see above). And so you must whittle down to ♠9 ♥K ♦x.

 

So now, putting on declarer's hat, I see West pitch some hearts and think, Is he doing this to avoid being endplayed? And I might slam the ♥A. Take that, Grosvenor!

 

My action might depend on the club split then. West is more likely to have both the ♠9 and ♥Kx if he started ?-?-5-2 than ?-?-5-4.

Yeah, this is a definite toughie. I wonder, then, whether (strangely?) the person to watch is RHO. LHO knows that he needs to save something and may need to throw a ruse out there. RHO might not realize that he needs to play along, may realize it late, or may not know how to play along. If RHO's actual pitches do not give away the secret, the timing of his pitches might.

[Benoit35]

Yeah, this is a definite toughie. I wonder, then, whether (strangely?) the person to watch is RHO. LHO knows that he needs to save something and may need to throw a ruse out there. RHO might not realize that he needs to play along, may realize it late, or may not know how to play along. If RHO's actual pitches do not give away the secret, the timing of his pitches might.

 

Interesting. I don't know if, say, the throwing of the other, insignificant ♠x, or the timing of such an action, would have any meaning.

 

Still, West holding both the ♠9 and ♥K on fewer major cards than his partner is pretty unlikely. I would probably finesse unless I get the right amount of love (i.e. all the heart discards) from the defense.

 

Did you actually play this hand Ken? How did it turn out?