Defend This

[rogerclee]

[hv=d=s&v=b&e=sthkj987d87caqj32&s=sk97hqt653d963ct4]266|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

You are South, and the bidding goes:

 

P - (2♦) - 2♠ - (3♥)

P - (4♦) - AP

 

2♦ was 5+♦, no 4cM, 11-15 HCP. LHO is an average club player.

 

Lead: ♣5 playing 3/5 leads, UDCA. You drop the ♣T at T1 under the ♣A, declarer playing the 8.

 

♠T off dummy at T2; your plan?

[rbforster]

Short version - K♠ and a trump. Some thoughts -

 

- A♣ and spots at T1 suggest a stiff club in declarer's hand, and partner with Kxxxx.

 

- No 4cM with declarer means partner has at least 6 spades, including the A since he didn't lead them.

 

- declarer has a spade holding of Qxx or worse, since he likely would have tried 3N with Ax(x), maybe even with Qxx and running diamonds.

 

- If partner had a stiff heart (besides the A) he would probably lead it in preference to the club. Likely holdings for partner are xx or A stiff. Declarer certainly doesn't have all 3 hearts for his non-raise, and might have raise to 4♥ on Ax.

 

Putting this together we have partner on something like

 

AHxxxx

A

x

Kxxxx

 

and declarer with

 

Hxx

xx

AKQJxxx

x

 

I suppose we could swap the A♥ for one of the high diamonds from declarer (since with those partner might not have wanted to try for a heart ruff with stiff A/K♦.

 

I'm discounting less likely hands for declarer with 8 diamonds 3181 and the stiff A♥ since on those he must have 8 solid diamonds and would have bid 3♠ (stopper ask) or 5♦ maybe instead of only 4♦.

 

It doesn't look like declarer has a source of tricks outside of diamonds to set up. I'm rising with the K♠ playing a trump to prevent the second spade ruff. We'll take the A♥, K♠ and hopefully a slow spade to hold 4♦ to making. Hopefully declarer won't rise with the high diamond and find the low heart to endplay partner when he holds Qxx in spades, but just goes for his sure spade ruff (lest trumps be 2-2 and the person with the A♥ be able to return another trump.

[pclayton]

Good hand.

 

I think Rob's construction is reasonable, but it isn't a good reason to hop ♠K. It's wrong when declarer has ♠QJx for instance. Partner can play a trump just as easily as we can.

 

More likely, declarer is 3=1=6=3 (Qxx x AQJTxx Kxx) missing a trump honor. Now, we should rise ♠K and play a club, since our 10 spot is rather ambiguous.

 

I could be missing something here.

[rbforster]

Yeah, I overlooked some of the hands where partner has lead a club from xxx. On these it depends whether partner has a high diamond honor (A or K), or a lower one.

 

If we play back a club, declarer will take his K, ruff a spade, and then play trump. Since we're threatening to get a ruff, he might just play from the top, hoping for a good split or playing partner for the missing honor on account of his bidding. Given our trump length, this line will drop any honor partner has. Then the clubs run and they make a lot. Might be right to cash out in those cases.

[Guest movingon]

Yes.. up with the king of spades returning a club. If partner is in with a diamond, I will get a club ruff and can then lead a heart to partner's Ace.

 

Declarer must have 3 spades and 3 clubs--very likely 1 heart and 6 diamonds.