I went down

[sceptic]

[hv=d=n&v=e&n=shqt64dq8643ck873&s=skjhak873dkct9542]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

West North East South

 

 -     Pass  1♠    Dbl

 2♠    4♥    4♠    5♥

 Dbl   Pass  Pass  Pass

 

 

DA DK D2 D3

CQ C2 CA C3

S3 H4 S2 SJ

H6 H9 HA H2

HK H5 HT HJ

CT C6 (now what should you play and why?)

[Flame]

I would not play like this.

I would have made some ruffs first, for example, ruff a ♦ at trick 3, then take 2 trumps then ruff a spade draw the Q of ♦ and ruff another ♦ (didn't think of this much but the idea is to get some count on the ♦ suit.

After knowing the count in ♦ ill make the decision in ♣.

If i have to guess i guess that the spades breaks 7-4, the heart we know are 2-2. now after knowing the ♦ ill might have some idea about the ♣s.

[1eyedjack]

Maybe play for drop on the grounds that if the club Q was singleton then they could have taken it straight off by way of club ruff at trick 3 (or allowing CQ to run round to King). That said, perhaps West should be playing a Club at trick 3 anyway (if winning first round) so drawing inference from defender's play carries risks.

 

EDIT - rethink.

If West were to continue Clubs at trick 3, declarer's only chance to make is if the clubs are breaking 2-2, so he would play on that assumption, rising with the King. The fact that West has not put you under pressure to make the only play to succeed provides greater evidence that that play would have been successful. So it seems to me even stronger inclination to play for the drop.

[pclayton]

I would tend to play for the drop. If West really has AJx, its just a Grosvenor.