gwnn Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 KQ5Q943QT2Q94 2NT-3NT, your lead, imps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walddk Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 ♥3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shintaro Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 4♥ i play 3rds :) ;) :D :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerclee Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 ♥3, there is no great reason to assume that trying to establish spades is better than hearts, and in fact, it will very very often present declarer with an extra trick. I don't think there is any alternative to this lead, and I would not like to play bridge with someone who routinely tried to make genius leads like the ♠K here with no reason to do so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dburn Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 I'm not sure ♠K is a "genius lead" - after all, if partner has the jack it will not blow a trick. The same cannot be said of a heart, which will blow a trick in at least as many positions as a spade. Not that I would lead a spade - I would lead a heart in any case, because I may have enough entries to recover the blown trick by establishing a long heart. However, I consider it close, and I would not be at all surprised to find that a spade was the winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P_Marlowe Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 Hi, hearts. With kind regardsMarlowe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
655321 Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 ♥3. I don't think this is simple, though. ♠K is my second choice. But even if partner has the ♠J he probably has no entry, so we have only succeeded in making a safe lead, not a killing lead. Well, partner could have the ♠A, or declarer could hold the ♠A doubleton, partner holding 5 or 6 spades to the Jack, so there are some big successes for a spade lead. But there are also big losses too, particularly when the ♠J is in dummy, or declarer has spade length. Basically, I am just leading 4th best from my longest suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 I would lead a spade (sorry I don't think I'm trying to be a genius?) I just think partner with Jxxxx and declarer with Ax is my best chance to set this. It's not like a heart is safe either, and it takes more in hearts to set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 I would lead a spade (sorry I don't think I'm trying to be a genius?) I just think partner with Jxxxx and declarer with Ax is my best chance to set this. It's not like a heart is safe either, and it takes more in hearts to set. It takes more than ♥Jxxxx and ♥Ax with declarer for a heart lead to succeed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 I would lead a spade (sorry I don't think I'm trying to be a genius?) I just think partner with Jxxxx and declarer with Ax is my best chance to set this. It's not like a heart is safe either, and it takes more in hearts to set. It takes more than ♥Jxxxx and ♥Ax with declarer for a heart lead to succeed? Since that would give declarer two stoppers in hearts, yes it does. It's also less likely for him to be longer in your longer suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
effervesce Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 I would lead a spade (sorry I don't think I'm trying to be a genius?) I just think partner with Jxxxx and declarer with Ax is my best chance to set this. It's not like a heart is safe either, and it takes more in hearts to set. It takes more than ♥Jxxxx and ♥Ax with declarer for a heart lead to succeed? Given you have 4 hearts vs 3 spades, the chances of partner having Jxxxx of spades is indeed higher than having Jxxxx of hearts (declarer has at least two spades and two hearts- thus there are 8 spades left to be divvied up vs 7 left for hearts between LHO, CHO and RHO) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 FWIW someone asked me to do a double-dummy simulation with this hand. It gave as answer that a low heart was slightly slightly more likely than a spade lead to defeat the contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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