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100% to North.

 

His passed-hand partner bid 3 into a live auction. The club suit could hardly be any worse than it was, so clubs has to be a playable contract. There is no guarantee that South has 2 diamond stoppers or, if he has only one diamond stopper, that there are 9 running tricks. Furthermore, if South did have 2 diamond stoppers he might bid no trump on his own.

 

This last point argues for a 3 bid by North rather than 3. If 3NT is the right contract, then South will bid it on his own. What South will do over 3 is not clear, but he may decide that Kxx is not a sufficient diamond stop and bid 4 on his AJ doubleton. 4 is a very reasonable contract.

 

Quite frankly, even if South bids 3NT over 3, there is much to be said for North continuing on by bidding 4. From North's perspective, it is not very likely that 3NT is the right contract opposite a passed hand with a long club suit.

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I blame north for passing 3NT. Even if it's making, 5 or 4 will usually be making as well, but I don't think the opposite (that if another game makes 3NT will also make [only considering hands where south has a diamond stopper]) is even close to being true.

 

I agree it's probably a better idea to bid 3 than 3, then pull 3NT to 4.

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I blame north for passing 3NT. Even if it's making, 5 or 4 will usually be making as well, but I don't think the opposite (that if another game makes 3NT will also make [only considering hands where south has a diamond stopper]) is even close to being true.

 

I agree it's probably a better idea to bid 3 than 3, then pull 3NT to 4.

I agree with this, I also would have bid 3 then pulled 3NT to 4.

 

This seems like a very descriptive sequence, and we can't accurately diagnose whether 3NT or 5 is the better contract. In my experience, hands like north's (strongish 5431 with 3-card support for partner's minor and a singleton in the opponents' bid and raised suit) very frequently play better in 5m than 3N.

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I blame the K for not being onside. If it were, N/S could take nine tricks (K on the likely lead and continuation, three spades and five hearts).

 

It may be worth noting that 5 is not much better (easy to take that pesky spade king plus the minor suit aces).

 

4 is the best game, but I wouldn't say it's exactly cold (could lose two club ruffs, and two aces for example). 3 over 3 would've been a better bid with the south hand (and the only likely way to reach the heart game).

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At first I wanted to give south 100%. But he is a passed hand, so his suit could be so weak. So it is 50/50. North for 3 Diamond and South for 3 NT and not 3 Heart.
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It may be worth noting that 5 is not much better (easy to take that pesky spade king plus the minor suit aces).

This is just not true, if they lead a diamond (the suit their partner overcalled) then you are almost cold no matter where the SK is. This is much better than 3N.

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North has a real problem when 3 gets back around to him. Partner should have 10 or 11 points for his bid as a passed hand. Game is certainly possible in NT, s, or s. I think 3 would be a gross overbid. It is a reverse anyway you look at it. 3 must be saying "do something smart, partner." It shows just about what you would expect; support for s, nice s, and a willingness to play 3NT if partner has stopper(s).

 

Now poor South is under the gun. The s aren't very good. He only has two s, all be it good ones. He does have a stopper. It looks like a tossup between 3s, 3NT, and 4. I don't what to blame either player for the contract.

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