Out for the count

[nige1]

[hv=d=e&v=n&w=sa7haq7dk9cqt9874&e=sk832hk43d52cakj5]266|100|Scoring: IMP

Bournemouth Teams Qualifier Board 19

-- ---- 1♠ (_P)

2♣ (_P) 3♣ (_P)

4♣ (_P) 4N (_P)

6♣ AP

4N = 2 of 5 key cards.

LHO leads ♠J against your slam

LHO discards ♦3 encouraging on the second ♣.

Suppose that you believe LHO holds DA.

In that case, do you see any chance?[/hv]

[rogerclee]

I don't, but I have definitely been wrong before.

[ArtK78]

No.

[jdonn]

The only "chance" I see is leading the diamond right away, which is the only chance of getting an offside ace to duck. Of course that raises my odds when the ace is off from something less than 1%, to something bigger that is still less than 1%.

[rogerclee]

Actually now that I have thought about it some more, if LHO has 5 spades I can squeeze LHO by running all my hearts and trumps. The squeeze position will be me having a trump, a spade, and Kx of diamonds, dummy having Kx of spades and xx of diamonds. On the last trump LHO must keep 2 spades, so has to stiff his DA. Then I pitch my spade from dummy and lead a diamond to the stiff ace.

[jdonn]

Actually now that I have thought about it some more, if LHO has 5 spades I can squeeze LHO by running all my hearts and trumps. The squeeze position will be me having a trump, a spade, and Kx of diamonds, dummy having Kx of spades and xx of diamonds. On the last trump LHO must keep 2 spades, so has to stiff his DA. Then I pitch my spade from dummy and lead a diamond to the stiff ace.

Haha very good answer. Two things.

 

1 - It would be awesome to see this line of play (and obviously it's the answer OP was looking for so this comment isn't directed at you), but I think terrible to play for it simply based on the signal. The encouraging signal could easily be made from holdings without the ace, QJ with length for example, and considering you would need a 5-2 spade break on the correct side also, it seems much better odds that the diamond ace is simply onside.

 

2 - What is a problem like this doing in the B/I forum??

[rogerclee]

Yes agree, this is not a line I would take unless they showed me the ♦A in their hand :huh:.

[han]

2 - What is a problem like this doing in the B/I forum??

 

That's exactly what I would say if I was a national champion and posted I couldn't find the answer.

[jdonn]

2 - What is a problem like this doing in the B/I forum??

 

That's exactly what I would say if I was a national champion and posted I couldn't find the answer.

I really don't mind the snide remarks, but would you mind not posting only snide remarks? We already have one me :huh:

[han]

Hehe. I'll admit I also thought there was no solution. The fact that it was posted in the B/I forum should have made it easier though, I didn't notice this.

[Walddk]

2 - What is a problem like this doing in the B/I forum??

You seem to forget that BBO has thousands of World Class beginners and intermediates ;) Just take a look at their profiles. Therefore, a squeeze is a minor problem for them, a piece of cake really, because most of them are experts or better - at least when protected by anonymity. In real life, however ... :huh:

 

Roland

[nige1]

Actually now that I have thought about it some more, if LHO has 5 spades I can squeeze LHO by running all my hearts and trumps. The squeeze position will be me having a trump, a spade, and Kx of diamonds, dummy having Kx of spades and xx of diamonds. On the last trump LHO must keep 2 spades, so has to stiff his DA. Then I pitch my spade from dummy and lead a diamond to the stiff ace.

Haha very good answer. Two things.

1 - It would be awesome to see this line of play (and obviously it's the answer OP was looking for so this comment isn't directed at you), but I think terrible to play for it simply based on the signal. The encouraging signal could easily be made from holdings without the ace, QJ with length for example, and considering you would need a 5-2 spade break on the correct side also, it seems much better odds that the diamond ace is simply onside.

2 - What is a problem like this doing in the B/I forum??

• Rogerclee's simple squeeze without the count works as the cards lie. Well done Roger :)
  
• The topic text tells you to assume that LHO holds ♦A :)
  
• The topic title incorporates an additional subtle :) clue.
  
• The successful line is of interest even if you never rely on intuition or subliminal clues.
  
• A beginner doesn't need to know exactly what he is doing to give a defender problems by running a long suit. Hugh Kelsey refers to this as power play.
  
• A little learning about the count requisites for a squeeze is more likely to inhibit an advanced player than a beginner.
  
• I'm still learning. I don't aspire to the condescending certainty and of a BBO expert :)
  

[vuroth]

I'll confess my thought process went something like:

 

"This looks hopeless.

...

Yeah, not seeing anything.

I wonder if there's a squeeze.

Maybe, but I'm not smart enough to see it, yet.

Think I need to read some more books"

 

So maybe not completely out there for B/I. Certainly, i was able to follow rogerclee's line, and I thought it was brilliant.

 

If nothing else, the whole thread was validated when we got to hear jdonn say "We already have one me"

 

:)

[ArtK78]

On a more serious (and less snide) note, I admit that I did not look into this problem too deeply. This is due to the fact that while there may be a squeeze if you know, with 100% certainty, that the diamond ace is behind the king, the chances of it succeeding are so small as to not being worth using up any of my (rapidly diminishing) remaining supply of brain cells.

 

So, like Jdonn, I would play a diamond to the King early in the hand. There is a small chance that, even if the ace is behind the king, that LHO might duck, and, even if he wins the Ace, he may decide not to continue diamonds. Now there may be a squeeze against RHO who could have QJT of diamonds and 5 spades or the QJT9 of spades (but why would he have played small on the diamond lead from dummy?).

 

I will go with the ever so slightly better than 50% chance of success of playing a diamond to the King early in the hand.

[cherdano]

Let's stop this "but this is B/I" talk. Just because Roger or Josh or any other A/E poster doesn't really look at the problem before posting doesn't mean that a B/I can't solve this with some careful study.

If we let East open 1♣ and North overcall 1♠, for example,...

[y66]

Good play problem. Not beyond the scope of thinking B/Is at all, at least not seeing the possibility of a spade squeeze, if not pulling it off at the table. Come on.

 

Points duly noted and appreciated re: the wisdom of playing for LHO to have all that, based solely on carding, and how this changes if he has overcalled 1S.