Perhaps a bit ambitious

[sailoranch]

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=st63haqjt5dakq3c4&s=sak9874h87dt8cqt9]133|200|Scoring: IMP

P - 1♥ - P - 1♠

X - XX - 2♣ - 3♠

P - 4NT - P - 5♥

P - 6♠ - all pass

 

XX is support redouble

5♥ shows 2 keys without queen

 

lead: ♦4[/hv]

 

Hi everyone, here's a thin slam I ended up in at an IMP pair game last weekend, and I'm wondering what everyone believes the best practical plan would be. The opponents lead fourth best.

[1eyedjack]

Does the redouble promise (1) 3 card spade support, with or without extras, or (2) extras, with or without 3 card spade support, or (3) extras and 3 card spade support, or (4) something else (specify)?

[sailoranch]

Does the redouble promise (1) 3 card spade support, with or without extras, or (2) extras, with or without 3 card spade support, or (3) extras and 3 card spade support, or (4) something else (specify)?

 

Just three card support, it says nothing about extras.

[1eyedjack]

OK I missed the narrative in the OP, sorry.

 

Back to the question, I think the 3S bid is about right.

 

North certainly has undisclosed extras, but I do not think that he has enough to commit to 6 if missing just one key card, which is what use of Blackwood implies.

 

I favour a 4D cue bid. This confirms slam interest and has the benefit of not committing to slam (or not even committing beyond 4S). Over 4D South has a clear 4S bid to discourage, and North should I think respect that.

 

If the "serious" 3NT applies in this situation over 3S then North might try that rather than 4D.

[1eyedjack]

I just realised that you may be asking for opinions on how to play the hand rather than bid it. For what it is worth my line follows, which is not to say that it is either right or works.

 

You need quite a bit to go right, so best assume that it does and play on that basis. The art may be to use the play that relies on the fewest assumptions.

 

If trumps behave you can make this as long as you successfully guess the location of the Heart King. Win trick 1 and play trump to Ace. If West drops an honour I shall assume that trumps are 3-1 and Heart King with West: Finesse Heart at trick 3, finish drawing trumps via finesse, repeat Heart finesse, cash Heart Ace discarding Club. If the King has not yet appeared, ruff Heart, cross back in Diamonds, discard another club on Diamond and your final club for the overtrick on what is by now hopefully a Heart winner, the King by now having fallen. If West follows low to the first trump I will place East with the Heart King. Draw the second round of trumps, Heart to Ace, cash Diamonds discarding Heart, take ruffing finesse in Hearts. Having ruffed out the King of Hearts, cross to table in trumps to cash Hearts discarding Clubs, making an overtrick as long as Hearts were 4-2 or better.

 

There are other lines that rely on taking club ruffs but I think that there are entry problems, with East threating a trump promotion by ruffing high when you play on Diamonds (even on the fourth round could damage you). West will put you to an early guess in Hearts when you lose the trick in Clubs, and if you are going to guess the Hearts correctly you might as well go for the first line as above. If you place East with both QJ of Spades or Hxx then the Diamond uppercut cannot hurt you, but personally I would not like to rely on that.

[sailoranch]

Thanks for the input. My initial impression was to play a spade and take the ruffing finesse or the normal finesse depending on West's card. But at the table, I chose to concede the club immediately. I figured the top club honors were likely to be split on the lead, and if East had the ace, then he might be tempted to go up fearing I had the king. Then a club or spade return would solve my problem since I can squeeze West in the minors. Otherwise, I would play the ten and expect a heart return from West. I have a squeeze in the red suits as a proxy for the finesse against West, so I don't think testing the defense costs, except for an overtrick. But I'm probably missing something.

 

Is there a better way to play for a defensive error?

[1eyedjack]

I like your line. Not only are the Club honours likely to be split but of the two East is more likely to hold the Ace than the King as even with just the bare Ace West may have been tempted to lead the Ace at trick 1. As you say, if East has the Ace and falls for the temptation of rising in second seat, you are better placed. I worry that a Diamond return may break up the squeeze (by either party who wins the Club), as I think would a Heart return by West. I think that a Spade switch is unlikely at this stage. Defence will likely conclude that it is too late to do any damage to the ruffs and concentrate on cutting down red suit communication. Of course on an expected red suit return you still have the ruffing finesse in Hearts to fall back on. You will have given up on the option to place he Heart King with West, and given up on picking up 3-1 trumps with offside stiff quack. You gain if there is QJ stiff offside, no longer having the opportunity to go for restricted choice in trumps.

 

It may be best to rely on a misdefence rather than a genuine chance. Trouble is the genuine chance is not that bad. In any case I am one of the worlds worst at guessing the likelihood of a misdefence.

 

West's passed-hand double presumably shows the minors and implies shorter Hearts, suggesting the King is with East. But what sort of values do you expect? He should have mentally ripped up any major suit values, but that leaves him with precious little for the double, even if he is not promissing much, being a passed hand etc. I don't know how this affects the likelihood of a successful Heart King placement.

[rogerclee]

Thanks for the input. My initial impression was to play a spade and take the ruffing finesse or the normal finesse depending on West's card. But at the table, I chose to concede the club immediately. I figured the top club honors were likely to be split on the lead, and if East had the ace, then he might be tempted to go up fearing I had the king. Then a club or spade return would solve my problem since I can squeeze West in the minors. Otherwise, I would play the ten and expect a heart return from West. I have a squeeze in the red suits as a proxy for the finesse against West, so I don't think testing the defense costs, except for an overtrick. But I'm probably missing something.

 

Is there a better way to play for a defensive error?

The timing for the squeeze against west is wrong (unless he has the ♥K, but then it is moot). On top of this, you are giving up when LHO has ♥Kxx or ♥Kx and only one spade.

[1eyedjack]

Just had another thought.

How about running trick 1 round to the Diamond 10?

[rogerclee]

Just had another thought.

How about running trick 1 round to the Diamond 10?

I think it might be instructive for you to think about why this is wrong. Think about the actual holdings you are picking up, do not just think "this is wrong because we have a good chance of making this anyway."

[1eyedjack]

By all means enlighten me.

 

We are committed to bringing in the trumps without loss, whichever line we take, so we assume that this is happening.

 

Any reasonable line may win or fail on varying cardholdings. If not finessing Diamonds at trick 1, most reasonable lines rely on accurately placing the Heart King.

 

So it seems to be a direct trade off: Which is more likely; that West has the Diamond Jack or that you successfully place the Heart King (with whomever)?

 

Whatever the significance of the Diamond pip that was led we are already into a better than 50% shot on the Diamond finesse, as West has announced the greater length in the bidding. Falsecarding is pretty commonplace against a slam, so reliance on the precise Diamond card led is no guarantee. Even so, I would say that it ups the odds in favour of the finesse a bit.

 

Are you that much more confident of placing the Heart King?

[rogerclee]

We are committed to bringing in the trumps without loss, whichever line we take, so we assume that this is happening.

No; also, it is wildly likely for west to have the ♥K (do you see why?).

[1eyedjack]

We are committed to bringing in the trumps without loss, whichever line we take, so we assume that this is happening.

No;

I am interested to know how you intend to escape a Club loser in addition to a Spade loser assuming the latter.

also, it is wildly likely for west to have the ♥K (do you see why?).

If West is in fact heavily odds on to have the Heart King then I would agree that running the Diamond at trick 1 could be a poorer shot.

 

But I do not see why West is heavily odds on to have the Heart King. I explained earlier in the thread why I consider there to be significant doubt, but for the sake of clarity I repeat it here:

 

West might reasonably be placed with some values for his double, and it is true that there are not many values to spare if he does not have both the Club Ace-King. Superficially this might indicate that West needs the Heart King to make up his values, but that is flawed reasoning since West should not be counting that card as an asset for the purpose. So all we can conclude is that he has considerably less in values than might normally be expected, despite his being a passed hand, and in that context whether he falls short to the extent of the Heart King is not something on which I would be happy to place reliance. For that matter, possession of the paltry Diamond Jack would likely count at least as much in favour of the double as the Heart King.

 

On the other hand, West has expressed length in the minors, giving him fewer major suit cards to compensate. That would point in favour of East's holding the Heart King and West holding the Diamond Jack.

 

If West shows up with a singleton honour in trumps then I agree that it increases the odds of his holding the Heart King, but even then to claim that it is "heavily odds in favour" appears hyperbole (and I would not find out about that until after committing to the Diamond play). West is certainly odds in favour of holding the Diamond Jack. Whether more so or less so than the Heart King I have an open mind.

 

It may be that you think that West's failure to lead a Heart at trick 1 increases his odds of holding the King. I accept that. I am not convinced that the effect is significant.

[han]

I would play west for the heart king since west doubled and does not have the AK of clubs. There are only so many HCP left..

 

I'd play a spade to the ace and finesse in hearts, then a spade to the king and finesse in hearts again. If spades don't split then I'll need some luck.

[rogerclee]

We are committed to bringing in the trumps without loss, whichever line we take, so we assume that this is happening.

No;

I am interested to know how you intend to escape a Club loser in addition to a Spade loser assuming the latter.

This is now two posts you have made without even bothering to think for ten seconds about how you might make this with a spade loser. Your logic is also unsound; I would tell you to consider why, but this seems to be a failing effort thus far.

[1eyedjack]

OK I get it. Presumably East has at least 4 low Hearts and QJx of trumps so he can't ruff in on the hearts early enough

[rogerclee]

OK I get it. Presumably East has at least 4 low Hearts and QJx of trumps so he can't ruff in on the hearts early enough

or 3, if he is 3334.

[vuroth]

Sorry if this is a little off-topic, but should you really bid 2♣ over the XX with

QJx

xxx

xxx

Kxxx

?

 

For that matter, should partner be doubling at the two level with:

x

Kxx

Jxxx

AJxxx

? Or is the the bare minimum for the bid? (i.e. with one more spade, one less heart you'd probably pass?)

 

I had a hard time visualizing the distribution of the missing 15 HCP.

[vuroth]

Other question I wanted to ask - with AK against a slam, is king the automatic lead? I was thinking you would want count, to protect yourself from leading into Qxx opposite x.

 

V

[rogerclee]

Sorry if this is a little off-topic, but should you really bid 2♣ over the XX with

QJx

xxx

xxx

Kxxx

?

 

For that matter, should partner be doubling at the two level with:

x

Kxx

Jxxx

AJxxx

?  Or is the the bare minimum for the bid? (i.e. with one more spade, one less heart you'd probably pass?)

 

I had a hard time visualizing the distribution of the missing 15 HCP.

Yes to 2♣, and I agree the double is odd but not the most insane bid I have ever seen.

 

Also I play that when defending against a 5-level suit contract or higher, the K asks for count.

[sailoranch]

The timing for the squeeze against west is wrong (unless he has the ♥K, but then it is moot). On top of this, you are giving up when LHO has ♥Kxx or ♥Kx and only one spade.

Thanks, I see the point about not having to collect the spade suit. I wasn't so sure about the ♥K either. But seeing that the ♥K must be on the left whenever ♠QJx is on the right, the extra making chances must be worth whatever you lose whenever the ruffing finesse would have been better.

 

For what it's worth, at the table, the king was offside:

 

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=st63haqjt5dakq3c4&w=sqjh2d97642caj532&e=s52hk9643dj5ck876&s=sak9874h87dt8cqt9]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

[1eyedjack]

EDIT - forget that. thought another 10 secs

 

Looks like you were never making this except double dummy.

 

I always had reservations about placing the Heart King with West purely because there were not enough schmoints otherwise for his double, and despite that a sensible evaluation of the King probably makes it worth only 1 or so. If there aren't enough points then perhaps he should be placed with compensating shape, which strengthens the case for East having the King. But if you so conclude then the honour dropping on the first round of trumps makes it interesting. If you accurately place the Heart King with East then I think you are down if you cash the AK of Spades and West's trump honour turned out to be a singleton, when you could otherwise have made by relying on the more likely Hxx trump onside.

[benlessard]

This is one of the worse X ive ever saw, especially if 1Nt to show both minor but weakish is available.