Powell endorses Obama

[helene_t]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14714.html

 

Another one of the same kind:

 

The conservative case for Obama

 

With Democrats leading with huge margins in congressional-election polls, and some prominent republicans endorsing Obama, Why isn't Obama leading by much more than the 3-6% indicated by recent polls?

[Al_U_Card]

He is (part)black?

[cherdano]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14714.html

 

Another one of the same kind:

 

The conservative case for Obbama

 

With Democrats leading with huge margins in congressional-election polls, and some prominent republicans endorsing Obama, Why isn't Obama leading by much more than the 3-6% indicated by recent polls?

It is a bit higher than what you say, 6-7%.

This is a big lead by the standards of American presidential elections. A big majority of voters picks the same party for every presidential election.

[gwnn]

Don't voters die every now and again? Or that's irrelevant since party preference goes from father to son? In that case maybe reproductive rates could be a factor?

[cherdano]

There is something else. Many of the endorsements you have probably heard about come from intellectuals. Intellectuals in the US have a lot less influence on public opinion than in Europe (well, at least in the countries that I know more or less to make this judgment).

[matmat]

There is something else. Many of the endorsements you have probably heard about come from intellectuals. Intellectuals in the US have a lot less influence on public opinion than in Europe (well, at least in the countries that I know more or less to make this judgment).

wonder why that is.

[jdonn]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14714.html

 

Another one of the same kind:

 

The conservative case for Obbama

 

With Democrats leading with huge margins in congressional-election polls, and some prominent republicans endorsing Obama, Why isn't Obama leading by much more than the 3-6% indicated by recent polls?

Racism!?!?!

[Lobowolf]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14714.html

 

Another one of the same kind:

 

The conservative case for Obbama

 

With Democrats leading with huge margins in congressional-election polls, and some prominent republicans endorsing Obama, Why isn't Obama leading by much more than the 3-6% indicated by recent polls?

I'm not sure how much weight any particular endorsement has, particularly this late in the game. Additionally, on the flip side, Joe Lieberman, who was on the Democratic ticket 2 years ago, has endorsed McCain, for whatever that's worth.

 

As Cherdano pointed out, also, the actual difference in the polls is probably bigger than it seems in terms of "swayable" voters. As a very rough oversimplification, 1/3 vote Republican, 1/3 vote Democrat, and 1/3 are up in the air, and actually decide the election. If Obama has, say, a 5-point edge, that's coming from the middle third -- call it 19%-14%. If you look just within that group, that's about 35% more for Obama than McCain.

 

Congress isn't really good indicator, either. Congressmembers and presidents do different things, and, additionally, to some extent, people like to see Congress and the President check and balance each other. Reagan and Bush had Democratic congresses; 2 years after Clinton was elected, Republicans took Congress over. During the Bush (II) presidency, the Democrats got it back. So it's not like a guaranteed lock-step vote for both. Similarly, where I live (California), voters almost always vote Democrat for president, and Republican for governor. (Not relevant to the "checks and balances" argument, but relevant to the "they do different things, so don't expect straight-line party affiliation).

[kenberg]

From your second reference:

 

"I really have been going back and forth between somebody I have the highest respect and regard for, John McCain, and somebody I was getting to know, Barack Obama. And it was only in the last couple of months that I settled on this."

 

I think you can see a bit of an explanation in this quote. Many people, including myself, had high hopes for the McCain candidacy. I did not, as Powell did, send money to McCain, but I considered it. To say that his campaign has been a disappointment is an extreme understatement. Powell, now that he has endorsed Obama, naturally speaks highly of him. Myself, I am less of an enthusiast but, all in all, I will be voting for Obama. I hope for the best, but I am uneasy. It's a tough job, I wish the best of luck to whoever takes it on. I always have.

 

Some find these matters really clear cut. I rarely do. Probably there are some others out there who are having some trouble. And Arend is partly right, I don't follow the advice of intellectuals. But only partly, because I don't follow anyone else's advice either.

[Lobowolf]

I don't think racism is going to hurt Obama, on balance. I don't think that many of the voters who are going to fail to vote for Obama because he's black would have voted for a very liberal new senator who was white, either. Additionally, to the extent that it does happen, Obama will pick up some votes because he's black, also.

 

Hard to prove the extent to which racism hurts or helps him, on balance, but I'd certainly take an even money bet that he gets more votes than Kerry.

[cherdano]

From your second reference:

 

"I really have been going back and forth between somebody I have the highest respect and regard for, John McCain, and somebody I was getting to know, Barack Obama. And it was only in the last couple of months that I settled on this."

 

I think you can see a bit of an explanation in this quote. Many people, including myself, had high hopes for the McCain candidacy. I did not, as Powell did, send money to McCain, but I considered it. To say that his campaign has been a disappointment is an extreme understatement. Powell, now that he has endorsed Obama, naturally speaks highly of him. Myself, I am less of an enthusiast but, all in all, I will be voting for Obama. I hope for the best, but I am uneasy. It's a tough job, I wish the best of luck to whoever takes it on. I always have.

 

Some find these matters really clear cut. I rarely do. Probably there are some others out there who are having some trouble. And Arend is partly right, I don't follow the advice of intellectuals. But only partly, because I don't follow anyone else's advice either.

For me it was always clear-cut to support the Obama (or Hillary, or Edwards, if they had made it to the ticker for that matter). But for a while I was ok with McCain becoming president. This has changed dramatically over the course of the campaign.

 

By now I am thinking the McCain is living in the bubble of his own spin. He really seemed angry at the "biggest negative campaign in history", that ACORN was about to cause biggest election fraud ever, that his campaign is only raising questions about Obama's truthfulness with regards to Ayers, etc. etc.

 

This I find pretty worrisome. A campaign generates a lot of spin, but so does an administration.

[jikl]

An interesting article appeared in the Melbourne (Australia) newspaper that discusses race and religion biases:

 

Race and religion argument

 

Then another one by a former Prime Minister of Australia:

 

Another view

 

Just sharing something from another part of the world, not making an opinion here (although I do know who I would vote for).

 

Sean

[hrothgar]

With Democrats leading with huge margins in congressional-election polls, and some prominent republicans endorsing Obama, Why isn't Obama leading by much more than the 3-6% indicated by recent polls?

For what its worth, the following quote describes the independent variables in 538.com's regression model. I took this directly from the site's FAQ

 

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/fre...st-revised.html

 

Political

 

1. Kerry. John Kerry's vote share in 2004. Note that an adjustment is made in Massachusetts and Texas, the home states of Kerry and George W. Bush respectively, based on Al Gore's results in Massachusetts in 2000, and Bob Dole's results in Texas in 1996.

2. Fundraising Share. The total share of funds raised in that state by each candidate (expressed specifically as the percentage of all funds raised that were raised by the Democratic candidate).

 

3. Clinton. The percentage of the two-way (Obama + Clinton) Democratic primary vote received by Hillary Clinton in that state. An adjustment is made to caucus states to account for their higher proclivity to vote for Barack Obama. In Michigan, the variable is based on the results of exit polling, which indicated who voters would have selected if all candidates were on the ballot.

4. Liberal-Conservative (Likert) Score. Per 2004 exit polls, a state’s liberal-conservative orientation, wherein each liberal voter is given a score of 10, each moderate a score of 5, and each conservative a score of 0. The most liberal state, Massachusetts, has a Likert score of 5.65. The most conservative, Utah, has a score of 3.30.

 

 

Religious Identity

 

5. Evangelical. The proportion of white evangelical protestants in each state.

6. Catholic. The proportion of Catholics in each state.

7. Mormon. The proportion of LDS voters in each state.

 

Ethnic and Racial Identity

 

8. African-American. The proportion of African-Americans in each state.

9. Hispanic. The number of Latino voters in each state as a proportion of overall voter turnout in 2004, as estimated by the Census Bureau. The reason I use data based on turnout rather than data based on the underlying population of Latinos is because Latino registration and turnout varies significantly from state to state. It is much higher in New Mexico, for instance, which has many Hispanics who have been in the country for generations, than it is in Nevada, where many Hispanics are new migrants and are not yet registered.

10. "American". The proportion of residents who report their ancestry as "American" in each state, which tends to be highest in the Appalachians. See discussion here.

 

Economic

 

11. PCI. Per capita income in each state.

12. Manufacturing. The proportion of jobs in each state that are in the manufacturing sector.

 

Demographic

 

13. Senior. The proportion of the white population aged 65 or older in each state. Because life expectancy varies significantly among different ethnic groups, this version has more explanatory significance than when looking at the entire (white and non-white) population.

14. Twenty. The proportion of residents aged 18-29 in each state, as a fraction of the overall adult population..

15. Education. Average number of years of schooling completed for adults aged 25 and older in each state.

16. Suburban. The proportion of voters in each state that live in suburban environments, per 2004 exit polls.

[Al_U_Card]

Fear, discouragement and debt. The new mantra of the neocons in the "new" American century.

 

Fear..... they are saying such negative things, what if they are true?

Discouragement.....it makes no difference so why vote/protest/get involved?

Debt.....no time for anything but work to pay what I owe.

[JoAnneM]

Hopefully Colin Powell will help swing the military vote, which for some strange reason usually polls Republican. My husband is a retired Colonel and a very strong Democrat, but no one ever asks him.

[akhare]

With Democrats leading with huge margins in congressional-election polls, and some prominent republicans endorsing Obama, Why isn't Obama leading by much more than the 3-6% indicated by recent polls?

It mystifies me too -- as a (naturalized) immigrant, voting for the Democratic ticket is the logically obvious choice.

 

My guess is that some of the cultural issues that seem downright absurd to me must really matter to the faithful on the other side...

[mike777]

Hopefully Colin Powell will help swing the military vote, which for some strange reason usually polls Republican. My husband is a retired Colonel and a very strong Democrat, but no one ever asks him.

the vast col....the vast lt col.....give up voting on dem or rep..........they simply give up.

[hrothgar]

Nearly forgot:

 

If you're seriously interested in this stuff Andrew Gelman has a good book out titled "Red State Blue State Rich State Poor State"

 

My folks got it for me for my birthday. It was a really good read...

[y66]

I think racism will hurt Obama, but even racists understand that it really is about the economy.

 

Very happy to see Colin Powell coming out for Obama. Maybe now he can start to put those dark days as a Bush "team player" behind him. Hope so.

 

Christopher Buckley's endorsement on October 10th was a surprise. Thanks for posting that link last week Helene. I thought his Daily Beast piece was pretty lame though and that he missed a real opportunity to carry on his old man's alleged life's mission of "separating the Right from the kooks”. Ha! Yes, McCain's "inauthenticity" is troubling. But I don't understand why it's so troubling for Mr. Buckley. Maybe it's easier to criticize others for selling out, especially if they are (once) respected elders, than it is to take a good look at yourself in the mirror, especially for a guy as talented and perceptive as he is.

[y66]

re: the military vote:

 

Some of the most interesting dollars to follow since the start of this election cycle have been those given by donors in the military, who have preferred anti-war candidate Barack Obama over hawkish John McCain from the start. But a surge of funds to McCain, a Vietnam War prisoner, in the final months that he was able to accept private contributions, moved him into the lead. By the end of August, McCain had collected $461,350 from military donors, compared to Obama's $450,950.

 

The largest difference is in contributions from employees of the Department of Defense, who have given McCain $35,400 more than they have to Obama since the start of the election cycle ($127,200 compared to $91,800). Obama, however, has maintained his lead among employees of the uniformed service branches, bringing in $340,400, while McCain's total was $321,500. Obama is also still ahead in contributions from military donors with overseas addresses, including those who work for the DoD--$74,650 compared to $16,600.

Reported by the Center for Responsive Politics.

[Gerben42]

A lot of this election seems to be about money. It is somewhat surprising to see that this campaign seems to break all records about gifts to both campaigns, although you'd expect people to keep there money in their pockets given how much of it evaporates.

[Al_U_Card]

Hard to imagine that it is cash-strapped, bad-mortgage holding John Q......the lobbyists and their bankers (pun intended) are likely the source of most funds. They are just "protecting" their interests......sure they are.

[Lobowolf]

With Democrats leading with huge margins in congressional-election polls, and some prominent republicans endorsing Obama, Why isn't Obama leading by much more than the 3-6% indicated by recent polls?

It mystifies me too -- as a (naturalized) immigrant, voting for the Democratic ticket is the logically obvious choice.

 

My guess is that some of the cultural issues that seem downright absurd to me must really matter to the faithful on the other side...

Why is that the "logically obvious choice" for a naturalized immigrant?

[kenberg]

Possibly amusing, possibly on topic:

 

I was at the Y today and in the locker room a guy was lamenting losing 56K in the market. He was also lamenting the possibility of the Socialist Messiah becoming president. He opined that anyone who votes for Obama deserves the results and has no right to complain. It crossed my mind to ask if he felt that he deserved to lose 56K because he (I presume) voted for Bush. Caution prevailed and I kept quiet. When you are just out of the shower it's not the best time to start an argument.

 

If you are asked if you know of someone who has actually changed his mind about who to vote for you can cite me. I am sort of a weak example since I often vote Democratic but I do have a bet on McCain, made when I thought I would be voting for McCain. But we mind changers are few and far between except maybe after the Nixon resignation. As near as I could tell by asking around back then, really no one at all had voted for RMN in 72.

[y66]

Can Obama Close The Deal With Those White Guys?

 

Good story here by Matt Bai.

 

Excerpt:

I asked Obama if it was frustrating to have seen, throughout the campaign, so many polls that showed him trailing badly among white men with lower incomes or less education.

 

“It’s not frustrating,” Obama said, shaking his head. I found this believable; Obama seems almost impervious to frustration. “There are a couple of things at work here. No. 1, let’s face it — I’m not a familiar type.” He laughed. “Which means it would be easier for me to deliver this message if I was from one of these places, right? I’ve got to deliver that message as a black guy from Hawaii named Barack Obama. So, admittedly, it’s just unfamiliar.

 

“Which, by the way, is a different argument than race,” Obama continued, pausing to make sure I understood. “I’m not making an argument that the resistance is simply racial. It’s more just that I’m different in all kinds of ways. I’m different even for black people. I went through similar stuff when I ran against Bobby Rush on the all-black South Side of Chicago.” In that race, a Democratic primary for Congress in 2000, Rush, the black incumbent, handed Obama his first and only political defeat. “It’s like: ‘Who is this guy? Where’d he come from?’ So that’s part of it.

 

“The second part of it is that I’m trying to do this in an environment where the media narrative is already set up in a certain way. So it’s hard to not be dropped into a box.”

 

He reminded me that back in March, for instance, he accepted a spontaneous invitation from a voter in Altoona, Pa., to bowl a few frames, and it turned out Obama was basically a god-awful bowler. Some commentators gleefully used this deficiency to portray him as out of touch with the common man, in a John Kerry-windsurfing sort of way. (Joe Scarborough, on MSNBC, used the word “prissy.”) To Obama, this brought home the bleak reality that, as a Democratic nominee, he was going to be typecast, fairly or not.

 

“I am convinced that if there were no Fox News, I might be two or three points higher in the polls,” Obama told me. “If I were watching Fox News, I wouldn’t vote for me, right? Because the way I’m portrayed 24/7 is as a freak! I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal. Who wants somebody like that?

 

“I guess the point I’m making,” he went on, “is that there is an entire industry now, an entire apparatus, designed to perpetuate this cultural schism, and it’s powerful. People want to know that you’re fighting for them, that you get them. And I actually think I do. But you know, if people are just seeing me in sound bites, they’re not going to discover that. That’s why I say that some of that may have to happen after the election, when they get to know you.”