Percentage line?

[TylerE]

Dummy:

 

♠ Ax

♥ QJx

♦ ATx

♣ JTxxx

 

Declarer:

 

♠ x

♥ x

♦ KJxxxx

♣ AKxxx

 

Auction was, with East Dealing:

 

(3♠) - 4NT - (5♠) - 5NT

(p) - 6♦ - ap

 

Opening lead: A♥, everyone following small, then K♥.

 

On the first round of trumps: (highlight to see)

 

W plays the 8, E a small card

 

[Echognome]

After the second heart, I ruff, cross to the ♠A and lead a third round of hearts. Does righty follow?

 

If so, he is likely 7-3 in the majors. Now I need clubs not to be 3-0 offside. Thus, I will need to play righty to be 7=3=2=1, 7=3=1=2, or 7=3=0=3. I can try cashing the ♣A first, but that will not leave me any better off. What about LHO? He will either be 3=6=2=2, 3=6=3=1, or 3=6=4=0. He did bid 5♠, so I'm going to discount 3=6=2=2 and play for the finesse in diamonds.

 

If RHO discards on the ♥ (and I think it will be tough for him to do so with xx in trumps when it looks like I'm trying to take a discard). Now I might play RHO for the Q.

[TylerE]

RHO has 3 hearts.

[Mosene]

West has 3 ♠'s (most likely. West needs to have no more than 2 clubs to make the contract. I also think west will have 6 hearts. This means west has either 2 or 3 diamonds.

 

So:

 

3=6=2=2 or 3=6=3=1. I think the later is more likely to justify the 5 spade bid (3-1 in minors more likely than 2-2). So i finesse Diamonds. Could west have 7 hearts? Yes. (apparently not)

[pclayton]

After the second heart, I ruff, cross to the ♠A and lead a third round of hearts. Does righty follow?

 

If so, he is likely 7-3 in the majors. Now I need clubs not to be 3-0 offside. Thus, I will need to play righty to be 7=3=2=1, 7=3=1=2, or 7=3=0=3. I can try cashing the ♣A first, but that will not leave me any better off. What about LHO? He will either be 3=6=2=2, 3=6=3=1, or 3=6=4=0. He did bid 5♠, so I'm going to discount 3=6=2=2 and play for the finesse in diamonds.

 

If RHO discards on the ♥ (and I think it will be tough for him to do so with xx in trumps when it looks like I'm trying to take a discard). Now I might play RHO for the Q.

Agree with most of this, although I think it would be a blunder to ruff the heart with ♦xx (but people make blunders). If I need a discard for the spade, I would draw trump and then cash my winner. Clearly I'm fishing.

 

I would also think that LHO has erred by trying to cash the 2nd heart if he thinks I'm 2=1=5=5.

 

Another consideration is what happens if RHO pitches a club on the 3rd diamond. Certainly RHO isn't pitching from ♣Qxx, but I still don't have a reliable sense if RHO has 7=2=3=1 or 7=2=2=2. Both are plausible as LHO would have 3=7=1=2 or 3=7=2=1.