han Posted October 13, 2008 Report Share Posted October 13, 2008 Today I had the following hand, red at IMPs: 10832Q96J1094106 Partner opened 1NT. Should I bid Stayman or not? I admit I wasn't sure what was best. I chose to bid and got lucky, partner had 5 hearts. I ran the following simulation: I dealt 100 hands where partner had a balanced hands with 15-17 HCP, 5-card major allowed. I let deep finesse determine the number of tricks (double dummy) in notrump, diamonds, hearts and spades. Then for each hand I look at which contract we would play after Stayman, and compared the result with passing. These are the results: 44 wins for bidding Stayman.21 pushes35 wins for passing. Bidding wins 205 IMPs but loses 162 IMPs so that's an average of +0.43 IMPs per hand. Does that mean that bidding is clearly right? I don't know, the following are all relevant: - Single dummy play may benefit playing in 1NT more than in a suit contract. That may be especially true since the Stayman auction reveals more information. - The opponents might double a suit contract more easily, especially when it splits badly. - Bidding Stayman with 3442 shape is more attractive than with 4342 shape. It was reasonably frequent that partner was 4-4 in the majors and spades played better than hearts. - I think that with a better hand (say 6 HCP) it would be clear to pass. With a 0-count I would bid since in the trump contract you rarely go down 4 or more, while that did happen occasionally in 1NT. - 6-card minors were not allowed in the simulation. This was not done on purpose, but of course it is relevant. With 6-card minors allowed I think that bidding Stayman would do a little worse, certainly it would lower the number of times partner has a 4-card major. Similarly, if your partner doesn't frequently open 1NT with a 5-card major then that would make bidding Stayman less attractive. Any thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted October 13, 2008 Report Share Posted October 13, 2008 I think bidding is clear with 4 diamonds, any 3-4 in the majors and a hand this weak. I think it would be much closer if we had 2-3 diamonds. All vul, I want to encourage them to bid. -100's are a wash with their partscores, but we are gaining when we are -200 or -300. I think bidding encourages them to bid, since it sounds like we have a 'fit'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted October 13, 2008 Report Share Posted October 13, 2008 Today I had the following hand, red at IMPs: 10832Q96J1094106 Partner opened 1NT. Should I bid Stayman or not? I admit I wasn't sure what was best. I chose to bid and got lucky, partner had 5 hearts. Any thoughts? I'd be curious to know how frequently a 5cM was in opener's hand and whether some of those would be opened 1M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSGibson Posted October 13, 2008 Report Share Posted October 13, 2008 I would pass. You don't have enough shape to say that your hand will definitely play better in a suit contract. One other thought I have is that I would be less likely to bid stayman because we play that opener, with a 5 card major and a max hand, will jump to 3 of the major. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted October 13, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2008 I'd be curious to know how frequently a 5cM was in opener's hand and whether some of those would be opened 1M. I didn't set the constraints myself, the program does this automatically. All the hands with a 5-card major were some 5332 shape. I didn't save the hands. It shouldn't be hard to estimate how often partner will have a 5-card major. It will be much harder to figure out how often you or I or them will open 1NT on those hands. Well, for me it actually isn't so hard unless I have a 17-count. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uday Posted October 13, 2008 Report Share Posted October 13, 2008 Also to consider: how will opps (and partner!) react to 1N-P-P vs 1N-P-2C You might find that once you make a noise, P will take you seriously and X them in something. Or it might go 2C-X-XX forcing you to run into a gray area ( is 2D drop dead then?) Or it might be that opp is less likely to be able to intervene over 1N than he is to X 2C. FWIW GIB (yes, yes, not my first choice for bidding tips either ) claims that it likes 2C, Pass, 2H (!) ( with 2C neck to neck with pass ). Small sample set. At the table I'd pass in a flash, bec it is a very nice 3 count, and I would not be afraid of 1N. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted October 13, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2008 At the table I'd pass in a flash, bec it is a very nice 3 count, and I would not be afraid of 1N. Yes I agree, it is a very nice 3-count. But if GIB chooses 2C then... :( I don't think partner will often go berserk after we bid Stayman, he knows we can be weak with 4441 shape or weak with both majors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted October 13, 2008 Report Share Posted October 13, 2008 I used to bid Stayman on hands of this type, but I don't any more, because a 1NT opening seems to contain a six-card minor much more often than it used to. Good point about the benefits of being 3-4 rather that 4-3 in the majors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted October 13, 2008 Report Share Posted October 13, 2008 I used to bid Stayman on hands of this type, but I don't any more, because a 1NT opening seems to contain a six-card minor much more often than it used to. Good point about the benefits of being 3-4 rather that 4-3 in the majors. I almost never have a 5-card major, and I frequently have a 6-card minor, so 2C is definitely wrong for me. To the extent that I no longer play 'garbage' Stayman, because I so rarely have a suitable hand for it and it frees up so many other sequences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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