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Overcall or not?


Bid or Pass?  

44 members have voted

  1. 1. Bid or Pass?

    • Bid 3H
      22
    • Pass
      22


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Bidding here could work out very well or very badly. If it catches partner with a fair hand and a fit, we will make a game that may well be missed if I pass. Against that, if partner has a poor hand we will go for a telephone number with opponents unable to make anything.

 

I will pass, but will admit that it is close.

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Isn't anyone impacted by the description of 2? It slightly reduces partner's expect heart length, and strength, relative to a "normal" weak 2.

 

I should say I see some people considered that. What about the bidders, maybe someone didn't notice? The thread title is a bit deceiving, after all.

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Isn't anyone impacted by the description of 2? It slightly reduces partner's expect heart length, and strength, relative to a "normal" weak 2.

 

I should say I see some people considered that. What about the bidders, maybe someone didn't notice? The thread title is a bit deceiving, after all.

I am not sure how it should affect our choice.

- Overcalling 3 is more dangerous, it is easier for LHO to double.

+ We may miss game more easily. With 3 spades partner will pass with many hands where game is good.

 

I think - is worth more IMPs than +.

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Why is everyone hating the heart suit so much? Which has a greater trick expectation integrated over partner's possible hands -- the hand we hold, or Axx, KJ976x, xx, Ax?

 

I think they are about the same in the heart suit, and having the trump ace gives us more possible lines of play in how we handle the offsuits.

 

Also, the argument that the opponents can double us more readily with the 2 method they used cuts both ways. Partner also has to be cautious balancing -- and he has zero or one aces and therefore much more reason to fear conceding a big penalty.

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Isn't anyone impacted by the description of 2? It slightly reduces partner's expect heart length, and strength, relative to a "normal" weak 2.

 

I should say I see some people considered that. What about the bidders, maybe someone didn't notice? The thread title is a bit deceiving, after all.

Not being a tooth, I wouldn't describe myself as being impacted, but yes, I was aware of the description when I made my choice. Had it been a normal weak two, I would have used a stronger word for the pass than "conservative".

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Why is everyone hating the heart suit so much?  Which has a greater trick expectation integrated over partner's possible hands -- the hand we hold, or Axx, KJ976x, xx, Ax?

In hearts? THIS ONE! Meaning, your example suit.

Give partner xx. Let's analyze a 4-1 break with AQ offside (you can put the T onside stiff if you like). The bad guys are going to make two trump tricks on power and probably will tap you out to make a long one. If the hearts split 3-2 with length over you, you need two honors tight onside to do better than I will with ace-empty-sixth.

 

Plus, having the ace is just huge on a hand like this since we can control the number of rounds of trumps taken out. Often that's worth at least one trick in the play.

 

You can go through a bunch of these analyses, or you can just consider that the longer the suit, the more the relative rank of the ace versus the king, and the less the relative value of the secondary honors and high spots versus the low spots.

 

I still like overcalling.

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Why is everyone hating the heart suit so much?  Which has a greater trick expectation integrated over partner's possible hands -- the hand we hold, or Axx, KJ976x, xx, Ax?

In hearts? THIS ONE! Meaning, your example suit.

Give partner xx. Let's analyze a 4-1 break with AQ offside (you can put the T onside stiff if you like). The bad guys are going to make two trump tricks on power and probably will tap you out to make a long one. If the hearts split 3-2 with length over you, you need two honors tight onside to do better than I will with ace-empty-sixth.

 

Plus, having the ace is just huge on a hand like this since we can control the number of rounds of trumps taken out. Often that's worth at least one trick in the play.

 

You can go through a bunch of these analyses, or you can just consider that the longer the suit, the more the relative rank of the ace versus the king, and the less the relative value of the secondary honors and high spots versus the low spots.

 

I still like overcalling.

What the heck is the point of this? What if instead of offside they are....wait for it....onside! What if partner has Q or Qx or Qxx? Your last paragraph looks like it says "you can think, or you can live by cliches". I'll take the first option thanks!

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What the heck is the point of this? What if instead of offside they are....wait for it....onside! What if partner has Q or Qx or Qxx? Your last paragraph looks like it says "you can think, or you can live by cliches". I'll take the first option thanks!

The point is.....wait for it.....that you're maybe a fraction of a trick better, if at all. And you might be worse.

 

Here's another seeming paradox. It might be better to have Axxxxx than AJxxxx. Why? Because if the opponents have 5 hearts including the K, Q, J, and T, they're making the same number of heart tricks on play in spades as they are on defense against hearts.* If they are missing some of the interior spots, they might not be able to play the suit for tricks on play, but they'll make the same number of heart tricks on defense -- the number of trumps in their longer hand, less one. So you get better Law protection with the emptier suit, since it's less likely to be a Law failure hand.

 

I agree with other posters that passing could miss game. I don't agree with other posters that we're getting crushed as often as they think we are. So by arguments others made previously we should be in this auction.

 

And if you read anything else I posted, you know prefer what you called the "thinking" option.

 

* -- unless there is a cut or the defense can cut off the dummy against spades when the long heart is there

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I'll butt-in. The reason is pard, though short in spades, might also be short in hearts and might be stuck for a bid.

 

yeah, it's a bit sick. But I gotta do it.

That's what I thought too. I really hated having to bid 3, but on the same reasoning I bid anyway. Partner responded 3NT, and we got smashed for 1100.

 

The whole hand:

 

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=skt7hkdkt9843c872&w=s93hqt86daqcqj643&e=sqj842hj7dj65ck95&s=sa65ha95432d72cat]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Anyway-I'm passing these hands in the future (I know I know, what kind of Aussie player passes :) )

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