Evaluate this hand

[TimG]

MP, red v white, you hold ♠QJT5 ♥KQ43 ♦J94 ♣75. Partner opens 1N (15-17)and replies 2H to your Stayman bid. Is this hand good enough to insist on game?

[jocdelevat]

by points the hand looks good for invite. if pard is min 24hcp should be good for 3h and if max 26 should be good for game.

[TylerE]

Looks like a fairly middling 3♥ bid to me. Doesn't look like a hand to overthink.

[jdonn]

IMO too many 15 counts make game at least fair for me to not bid it vul at imps. No guarantees of course...

[pclayton]

At MPs I will bid 3♥. If game is right pard will bid it.

 

Perhaps a better question is do we pass 3N when pard bids it?

[mike777]

4h I am not going to win making delicate borderline game tries :P

[han]

3H seems normal at MPs.

[jdonn]

3H seems normal at MPs.

Indeed, I don't know where I got "vul at imps" from. I have no problem with 3♥ at mps. At imps I think you have to bid game since it's so dependant on degree of fit. Axx of spades and xx of diamonds is 1.5 losers less than xx of spades and Axx of diamonds, for example.

[P_Marlowe]

Invite, and this has nothing to with MP.

 

If you force to game with this hand, you can skip

the whole invite scenario.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[NickRW]

Invite only at MPs, also nv at IMPs - vul at IMPs I might be tempted to have a go - maybe.

 

Nick

[skjaeran]

If partner is prone to upgrade too many 14-counts, I'll invite. Else I raise to game.

[rogerclee]

I invite and think this is really clear.

[TimG]

Thanks for all the responses.

 

Recall that the hand is ♠QJT5 ♥KQ43 ♦J94 ♣75. We were playing weak NTs at the time, so the auction we had actually started 1♦-1♥-2♥, where 2♥ shows 15-17 balanced with 4 hearts (or an unbalanced equivalent). Two questions:

 

1) Is the semi-fit in diamonds enough to tip the scales in favor of a game bid rather than an invite? (Yes, partner could be 4=4=3=2, but we open 1♣ with 33 in the minors.)

 

2) In a MP event, does it matter to you that many pairs will start 1N-2♣-2♥? That is, do you want to duplicate their invitation/force choice even though you may have a tad more information? (Let's assume we consider ourselves to be as good as the field and we're not going out of our way to create anti-field swings or the like, the weak notrump not withstanding.)

[han]

After 1D-1H-2H I would definitely invite since more sensible invites are possible.

[P_Marlowe]

Thanks for all the responses.

 

Recall that the hand is ♠QJT5 ♥KQ43 ♦J94 ♣75. We were playing weak NTs at the time, so the auction we had actually started 1♦-1♥-2♥, where 2♥ shows 15-17 balanced with 4 hearts (or an unbalanced equivalent). Two questions:

 

1) Is the semi-fit in diamonds enough to tip the scales in favor of a game bid rather than an invite? (Yes, partner could be 4=4=3=2, but we open 1♣ with 33 in the minors.)

 

2) In a MP event, does it matter to you that many pairs will start 1N-2♣-2♥? That is, do you want to duplicate their invitation/force choice even though you may have a tad more information? (Let's assume we consider ourselves to be as good as the field and we're not going out of our way to create anti-field swings or the like, the weak notrump not withstanding.)

Hi,

 

unless you always open NT with 12HCP and

a 5422 shape, I doubt that the raise to 2H

promises 15-17.

And for that matter, I doubt opener will only

bid 2H, if he happens to hold 17HCP with a

4333 shape, he surely will bid 3H.

 

So you should certainly only invite, nothing

more, and you could even make a case for

passing using the LTC, which may or may

not be worth a try playing MP, depends, what

an unbal. min. opener looks like, will he always

have 12HCP, or is 11 possible with a 5431

shape?

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[P_Marlowe]

Thanks for all the responses.

 

Recall that the hand is ♠QJT5 ♥KQ43 ♦J94 ♣75.  We were playing weak NTs at the time, so the auction we had actually started 1♦-1♥-2♥, where 2♥ shows 15-17 balanced with 4 hearts (or an unbalanced equivalent).  Two questions:

 

1) Is the semi-fit in diamonds enough to tip the scales in favor of a game bid rather than an invite?  (Yes, partner could be 4=4=3=2, but we open 1♣ with 33 in the minors.)

 

2) In a MP event, does it matter to you that many pairs will start 1N-2♣-2♥?  That is, do you want to duplicate their invitation/force choice even though you may have a tad more information?  (Let's assume we consider ourselves to be as good as the field and we're not going out of our way to create anti-field swings or the like, the weak notrump not withstanding.)

Hi,

 

unless you always open NT with 12HCP and

a 5422 shape, I doubt that the raise to 2H

promises at least 15.

And for that matter, I doubt opener will only

bid 2H, if he happens to hold 17HCP with a

4333 shape, he surely will bid 3H.

 

So the raise showes roughly an min. opener

12-15/16, as in SAYC, you just have excluded

the bal. 12-14 counts.

 

So you should certainly only invite, nothing

more, nothing less, although you could even make

a case for passing using the LTC logic, because

chances that game will make, will be remote,

it may or may not be worth a try playing MP,

depends what an unbal. min. opener looks like,

will he always have 12HCP, or is 11 possible with

a 5431 shape?

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[pclayton]

After 1D-1H-2H I would definitely invite since more sensible invites are possible.

Or do you mean its more sensible to invite?

 

We are well ahead of the field at this point because of system. If pard has the balanced 15-17 NT type, surely we know a little more about pard's hand than the field. Of course, so do the opponents.

 

Where the big gain comes is when pard isn't 15-17 balanced. The auction will start the same way at other tables, but our hand has an auto pass over 2♥ since pard will frequently have a weak NT. So we know pard is unbalanced if pard is less than 15. The problem I have is that pard's most likely shortness is spades, which is bad news for us.

 

Still, I don't know pard's hand type so I will keep this one out of the hazard for now and just invite.

[TimG]

unless you always open NT with 12HCP and

a 5422 shape, I doubt that the raise to 2H

promises at least 15.

And for that matter, I doubt opener will only

bid 2H, if he happens to hold 17HCP with a

4333 shape, he surely will bid 3H.

Doubt all you want, but I would surely not raise to 3H with 4333 and 17 HCP (even considering that we would open that 1C, not 1D).

 

As for the 12 HCP 2452, I would not open 1D if the hand did not evaluate to 15+ in support of responder's hearts. (I think that within the KS framework we're dealing with, the options would be Pass, 1H and 1N if the hand was not good enough to raise 1H to 2H.)

[NickRW]

Thanks for all the responses.

 

Recall that the hand is ♠QJT5 ♥KQ43 ♦J94 ♣75.  We were playing weak NTs at the time, so the auction we had actually started 1♦-1♥-2♥, where 2♥ shows 15-17 balanced with 4 hearts (or an unbalanced equivalent).

 

I don't think that sequence shows 15-17 bal or equivalent. What is partner to bid with a 12hcp 1-4-5-3 shape, for example. I admit partner is likely to have something extra in terms of stength or be unbal.

 

1) Is the semi-fit in diamonds enough to tip the scales in favor of a game bid rather than an invite?  (Yes, partner could be 4=4=3=2, but we open 1♣ with 33 in the minors.)

 

The semi fit is a help for sure. However the acelessness and full of quackness of the hand is a negative feature.

 

2) In a MP event, does it matter to you that many pairs will start 1N-2♣-2♥?  That is, do you want to duplicate their invitation/force choice even though you may have a tad more information?  (Let's assume we consider ourselves to be as good as the field and we're not going out of our way to create anti-field swings or the like, the weak notrump not withstanding.)

 

I wouldn't worry too much about the field here - if you're playing, say, weak NT in a generally strong NT field (or any other major departure from the field) then you're going to find yourself in some auctions that won't generally be repeated around the room. That being the case you have to back your judgement and hope you're right more often than the field. If this sort of thing concerns you, don't do an anti field thing like picking a different NT range in the first place! (I will say that I have a system that is moderately anti field to where I normally play - and you get some wins and some losses - but overall I haven't found it to be a bad thing)

 

Nick

[TimG]

I don't think that sequence shows 15-17 bal or equivalent. What is partner to bid with a 12hcp 1-4-5-3 shape, for example. I admit partner is likely to have something extra in terms of stength or be unbal.

From the KS summary provided at the Bridge World site:

 

"Usually 15-17, 4-card fit. Could be unbalanced equivalent. Rarely, 3-card support, too concentrated for 1 NT rebid: ♠AQx ♥xx ♦xxx ♣AKQxx."

 

If the 1=4=5=3 12 HCP hand does not qualify as 15-17 in support of hearts, it is probably right not to open (in the context of KS).

[NickRW]

I don't think that sequence shows 15-17 bal or equivalent.  What is partner to bid with a 12hcp 1-4-5-3 shape, for example.  I admit partner is likely to have something extra in terms of stength or be unbal.

From the KS summary provided at the Bridge World site:

 

"Usually 15-17, 4-card fit. Could be unbalanced equivalent. Rarely, 3-card support, too concentrated for 1 NT rebid: ♠AQx ♥xx ♦xxx ♣AKQxx."

 

If the 1=4=5=3 12 HCP hand does not qualify as 15-17 in support of hearts, it is probably right not to open (in the context of KS).

Well, I can see where that's coming from, but I don't agree with the KS idea of hand evaluation in that case. This sort of thing is quite a reasonable opener to my mind (maybe not in KS - which is not my system) - anyhow:

 

x

AQxx

KJ9xx

QTx

 

But if you're saying that, in support of hearts, the above is equivalent to:

 

xx

AQxx

KJxx

AJx

 

Well, if that is the case, remind me not to play KS.

 

Nick

[TimG]

FWIW, some simple simulation results.

 

Give opener a 4333 or 4432 hand with 4 hearts and 15 HCP (to match a 1N-2C-2H start), and game makes ~32% of the time.

 

Even giving declarer some advantage vs double dummy, those who think this is an invite are correct. Give opener 16 and game makes 48%; 17 and game makes 67%. Seems to me like a straightforward quantitative invitation will work well.

 

Give opener 4=4=3=2, 3=4=4=2 or 2=4=4=3 and 15 HCP (to match a 1D-1H-2H start), and game makes ~28% of the time. Yes, less than when we don't have any inference about the diamond semi-fit. So, I was wrong when I suggested that the extra bit of information might make bidding game more attractive -- we clearly still want to invite.

 

Give opener 1453, 2452 or 3451 and 14 HCP and game makes about 36% of the time. Still not worth blasting to game. Increase to 15 HCP and game makes about 54% of the time, so here again a simple quantitative invitation would seem to do well.

 

Of course, if you have more sophisticated invitational methods, they may work even better.

 

Thanks for the responses. I guess I could have answered the questions myself with the use of simulation, but I wanted to get a better idea how the field viewed this.

[ArcLight]

Using Deal Master Pro, with 15-17 balanced and 4-5 hearts, 250 simulations:

 

4H makes 48%

3NT makes 37%

[hrothgar]

Thanks for all the responses.

 

Recall that the hand is ♠QJT5 ♥KQ43 ♦J94 ♣75.  We were playing weak NTs at the time, so the auction we had actually started 1♦-1♥-2♥, where 2♥ shows 15-17 balanced with 4 hearts (or an unbalanced equivalent).

 

I don't think that sequence shows 15-17 bal or equivalent. What is partner to bid with a 12hcp 1-4-5-3 shape, for example. I admit partner is likely to have something extra in terms of stength or be unbal.

For what its worth:

 

I think that there are 12 HCP 1=4=5=3 hands that are too weak to open 1♦. My choice of bids would depend a lot on the specifics of the hand. However, I can easily conceive of any of the following calls:

 

1. Pass (the most attractive option)

2. 1NT (more attractive with a 3=4=1=5 or 3=4=5=1 shape)

3. 1♥

[TimG]

Using Deal Master Pro, with 15-17 balanced and 4-5 hearts, 250 simulations:

 

4H makes 48%

That looks consistent with my results. But, I think you want to avoid the trap of thinking that because game makes 50% of the time, you want to bid it. Here an invitation will get you to game when opener has the top end of the range (and game will make more than 50%) and will stop short when he has the bottom end of the range (and game will make less than 50%). That is why I focused on opener's minimum HCP holdings.